Short Term Update

LONG | from 8.47$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc)

After i bought two days ago, following a reverse with the 2 hour chart,the market reacted nicely to the upside with some hesitation to take out the 9 level. I’m ready to close this short term trade once the inverse fischer rsi gives me a sell signal.

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Twitter

One of you suggested that I post my trades and analysis about bitcoin on Twitter AND on this blog. I am going to experiment with this idea to see what happens. Feedback and suggestions will be appreciated. You can find me on Twitter by clicking on the “FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER” line that appears on the right hand side of this blog right above the Blog Trading Record.

Short Term Update: 4 hour chart

I think the drop from 9.40 has ended and that a sustained up swing is underway, i’m monitoring the four hour chart, it is smoother compared to the hourly chart, we need probably more liquidity to be able to use also this time frame for quick day trading; thus so far I’ve been paying more attention to 2 and 4 hour chart. Too bad that for now isn’t possible to sell short with mtgox and also option trading it’s missing, otherwise it would have been possible to sell short at 8.60 with a minimum target of 0.5$ down to 8.10 or 8 where to cover the short trade.

Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
LONG
| from 7.51$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc)

SHORT TERM
FLAT
| waiting next trading signal

Here you can see how it looks the situation with a weekly chart, it is impressive to observe that 1.5 million bitcoin changed hands during the great swing from 0.50 to 9, 25% of total supply of bitcoins (~6mln). There are many investors that bought when it was under 1 btc and are still holding for long term. The previous huge massive buying happened in october 2010 when in 1 month volume peaked at ~2 mln.

Long Term Update: bought 1 unit at 7.51$

LONG | from 7.51$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc)

I bought at the break out of 7.50, the Alma moving average reversed today to the upside. The oscillator is not oversold but it is negative , at -0.27.

If the last bottom at 5.60$ will hold i interpret it as a sign of strength, because it is much higher then the previous top at 4.15$. I will use  a large stop loss this time, at least 2 btc.

Portfolio Update

LONG TERM
FLAT
| waiting next trading signal

SHORT TERM
FLAT
| waiting next trading signal

The market rebounced nicely from where i sold my long term trade, i missed a nice short term trading opportunity with the 2 hour chart last saturday at 6$, with a sell signal to close the long position few hours ago at 7.  For who want to follow the trend, is it possible to buy on the break out of 7.50$, in any case i’ll wait an oversold condition for a quick short term trade and the reverse of the moving average on the daily chart for opening again a long term trade.

Long Term Update: Sold 1 unit at 5.63$

FLAT | waiting next trading signal

Sold 1 unit (100 btc) at 5.63$, 4.70$ point profit per btc.

I decided to close my long term position due to the recent big drop of this week. Of greater concern, the moving average had turned down after a prolonged period of rise ( more then 40 days). Even the inverse fisher transform Rsi it is no more completely saturated at +1 and it is moving towards the +0.5 thresold line that will confirm a sell signal and a change in the trend. Volume is low showing that there aren’t aggressive buyers at these prices. I have no reason to think this break is anything but a normal corrections within a bull market, once it is complete at the next reversal of the moving average and/or a signal of the oscillator, i’ll be a buyer again.

Have a look at #bitcoin-otc-eu

Due to rising popularity of bitcoin in EU, join dedicated EU over the counter trade channel on the FreeNode network or use the FreeNode Web IRC; You are welcome to join on #bitcoin-otc-eu!

Other channels available are:

  • #bitcoin (General Bitcoin-related)
  • #bitcoin-dev (Development and technical)
  • #bitcoin-otc (Over The Counter exchange)
  • #bitcoin-market (Live quotes from markets)
  • #bitcoin-mining (GPU mining related)