Long Term Update: weekly view

In the last week end we have seen an extremely volatile market that makes me uncomfortable to post my short term trades on a public blog like this followed for the most part by amateurs. With the yo-yo behaviour of the last week end, it is easy for an amateur speculator to get slammed trying to follow the trend. In this situation a better approach is to try to figure out whether current prices are high or low relative to a normal price range. If you can do this you can begin to trade any market with confidence.

I do that, as i explained in one of my earlier posts, computing support and resistance with an estimation of current volatily and the time considered for the forecast (usually from 15 to 25 bars of the time frame used). So if the market goes under your calculated support and then you have a buy signal you may try to “take a stand” or basically telling everyone that you think the market is under priced and telling to other market partecipants that they might have made a mistake by pushing the market too low. So I say you should learn how to take a stand at support or resistance levels also through personal experience.

On a weekly basis, the trend is still up, trading activity is growing and show an increasing volume activity. The weekly moving average is unaffected by the recent wild daily swings, the inverse fisher rsi is still overbought with no signs of weakness.


8 thoughts on “Long Term Update: weekly view

  1. george

    i think any trading approach can be profitable, trying to follow the trend or go for quick gains; it just needs a profitable rule. if you know what you are doing you know how to protect yourself from unexpected behaviour or sudden increase of volatility, even the most risky trade can be a reasonable safe bet if you follow your RULES.

  2. cf

    Whether its trend following or picking the right pivot, more than half of your profits or losses are due to the money management of your position. When you are right you can make a fortune.

  3. adsense

    Enky, as the market is currently refusing to go down 10$, it can ONLY “break out”, till, inevitably, as the eventual outcome, in line with the investors expectations that are bullish today.

    1. Enky

      Hard to say, for now it is in the middle of my today range prediction, of course long term price momentum is positive, so the odds are slightly for an up movement for the next weeks.

  4. Tim

    As a new investor (or rather, statistics-enthusiast trying to see if he can apply some of that on the bitcoin market), I’m wondering how you deal with the 24×7 open market using the old calculations? From what I can find online, most statistics (like reverse fisher rsi) is based on statistics of market close. Did you take an arbitrary point and say “this is my market close time” or are you applying modified versions of the normal stats? Same for the bar graphs, really, which seem to be about market close too.

    1. Enky

      It’s not a big issue, the only choice is to sample the input data at an arbitrary fixed point in this case. The original data i use as input for my charts has all the transactions happened at mtgox since 17 august 2010 and this allow me to plot also intraday charts.
      I use midnight as a close, UTC+1 time.

  5. marco

    I spend lot of time in chat and on the forum and there are too many bears out there, which supports your vision of a continuation of the bull bitcoin market

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