Long Term Update: MtGox

As you can see in this daily chart, BTC/USD is forming a symmetrical triangle, usually forms during a trend as a continuation pattern. The pattern contains at least two lower highs and two higher lows. When these points are connected, the lines converge as they are extended and thesymmetrical triangle takes shape. You could also think of it as a contracting wedge, wide at the beginning and narrowing over time.

While there are instances when symmetrical triangles mark important trend reversals, they more often mark a continuation of the current trend. Regardless of the nature of the pattern, continuation or reversal, the direction of the next major move can only be determined after a valid breakout of the two trendlines.

Roughly 75% of symmetrical triangles are continuation patterns and the rest mark reversals. The reversal patterns can be especially difficult to analyze and often have false breakouts.

It is possible also to project a price target in case of a break out, there are two methods to estimate the extent of the move; first  the widest distance of the symmetrical triangle can be measured and applied to the breakout point, in this case we have a target of 17$ (closing point of the triangle) plus 8/10$ equal to 25$.
Second, a trend line can be drawn parallel to the pattern’s trend line that slopes (up or down) in the direction of the break. The extension of this line will mark a potential breakout target of 27$ for an upside breakout.

Well, i dont think we are going to do a huge downside breakout, at current difficult level of more then 1.3 million the electricity needed to produce one bitcoin is at least 3$ and even 7$ for people living in europe with higher electricity costs, unlikely that they are going to sell their bitcoins for less then the cost to produce them. In a worst case scenario, without a drop in difficulty, we might see a slow weekly correction down to 8-10$.

Here’s the weekly chart, the alma moving average is slowing down but it does not have reversed its direction.

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5 thoughts on “Long Term Update: MtGox

  1. win

    We are now in a corrective period that will presage the next cyclical bull. The correction should retrace at least 50% of the june top 2011. However, we are at good support now at 16% (50% of 32$ top), which should hold for the time being. I am long and planning to go more long today/tomorrow, for about 1 week once the symmetrical triangle is broken.

  2. adsense

    Great update, insightful; the only technical consideration which holds me back from being very bullish in the short run is the fact that the media hype is cooling down, without the media attention it is impossible to go up.

  3. btcfan

    Maybe one of those Somali pirates needs to make their demands in Bitcoins, so the whole world will say, “Bitcoins…WTF?”

  4. andreb

    Very interesting analysis Enky, and great to see you getting back to the sort of research you do best

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