Short Term Update

This is a four hour chart of last two weeks, i’ve drawn the same symmetrical triangle  shown in my previous post, recently the usd/btc dropped a bit after a nice sell of 20,000 bitcoins. The lower boundary estimate of my daily range forecast (available on my twitter channel) worked and the price didnt get through 15.60$ support.

For the next 24 hours i’ve the zone at 15-15.20$ as support, but i dont think it is going to do another lower low if the volatility remains as low as the last three days.

The situation at tradehill exchange is not much different, with falling volume activity after the mtgox reopening and price tied to what happens at mtgox.

Last time i closed a short term trade was at 28.80$ and the long term trade at about 16$, not much happened since then and we need a new ignition of fresh capital from new investors to reverse the current stagnant phase.

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9 thoughts on “Short Term Update

  1. marco

    LOL Enky, i appreciated that “someone lost his patience and dumped 250k usd”, but yes could be, i get bored quickly when the market is so flat.

    1. IF it will break 15.20 today, i interpret it as an increase in volatility, it is hard to guess which kind of investors are going to move the market in the upcoming 24 hours that i use for daily range estimate . I usually forecast this price range using the current volatility and not the historical one. Using historical volatility the range for today would have been 13.35-19.20, pretty large.

  2. Awesome Work! My friend an I are working on a google app engine app that would present the same data. The plan is just to compile the data and display it using google charts. Would you be interested in helping out? right now I’m working on getting the data, and he is working on displaying the data. We would need someone with your knowledge to make sense of the data.

    1. So are you going to put some technical indicators superimposed to the charts right? i recommend to keep things simple, give the option to add a moving average and an oscillator, you could add the moving average i use, the alma moving average, more details under the “technical background” page of my blog.

      1. alexf4

        I totally agree!!! Ill keep on working on the project for another week and give you an update then!

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