Short Term Update: bought 1 unit at 14.04$

LONG | from an average price of 14.04$/btc with 1 unit (100 btc)

Let’s try again a short term trade in this potential short term up trend. I’ll apply a stop loss under the fibonacci retracement already indicated on my previous post, under ~13.30$.

I’ve to say that the picture changed a bit with the the most detailed and accurate elliott wave program out there that i use, the Primary wave degree (suitable for long term investors)  is pointing down , but the shorter trends are undecided (90% confidence for an upmove and 70% for a down move) with the minimum down targets already met with the recent bottom at 12.50$
Minimally you need 2 consecutive trends or wave degrees pointing in the same direction to open a trade and it is not the case here, thus the mixed outlook for now.
The fact that the BTC/USD moved from a total negative outlook of 10 days ago to a mixed outlook (at least in the short term) it is encouraging and could be the sign of the first stage of a major reverse.


11 thoughts on “Short Term Update: bought 1 unit at 14.04$

  1. adsense

    Why do you decided to buy despite the overall negative scenario pointed out in the previous post?

    1. Enky

      Because the short term outlook moved from a negative scenario to a mixed one and i decided to give it a try despite a mixed indication from the elliott wave software i use. I think that if it will break out above 14.8$ the first target could be the zone around 16.50-17.00$, usually a move of 3 bitcoin or 20% is a decent swing for a short term trade considering the btc/usd volatility. Eventually i might decide to carry on this trade for long term if 17$ will be violently broken up.

      1. Enky

        I use ELWave 9.2g, i import the bitcoin daily data of mtgox with a metastock file, that i update manually with Equis Downloader, a tool of metastock 10.

  2. marco

    Good luck with that trade, i remain skeptic.
    I expect a flat market beetween 13 and 15 us dollars

    1. Enky

      Let’see if camp bx could do a better job, tradehill volume isnt increasing, a clear sign that their business isnt growing.

  3. So how do you feel about your trade now?

    I bought about 60 BTC at $14 and they have fallen by about 60 cents each. I was looking at the “all data” graph on bitcoin charts and it does looks like I foolish bought against the trend. Can’t decide no if I should sell or hold on. At this stage I’m going to hold because I find mtgox (or just about any market for that matter) so frustrating as hell because as soon as I sell then I always miss out on a major rally. If it keeps falling I want to me ready to make a large buy order for cheap BTC. I expect it to slope down and go sideways for about a month before things start to pick up more.

    1. Enky

      Why Foolish? it depends which kind of investor you are, if you go for long term i stated many times that above 9$ the main trend is still up.
      I’m going to sell under a clear break of the ~13.30$ but because this is only a short term trade attempt. I capitalized a lot during the period of rising prices from 1$ to 30$, so i can try to pick up a short term trend despite a mixed short term outlook.

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