After a long sequence of lower weekly highs, since the 32$ top, the BTC/USD has made a strong breakdown below my 9$ long term static support, the subsequence bounce to 11$ it is normal and the overall outlook remains bearish.

I calculated an hypothetical maximum extension of this weekly downswing from 32$ and it is around** 6.50$**, this target is in line with the secondary target of the elliott wave software i use (using the cycle and primary time frame, both suitable for long term investors), i dont think we are going to see lower prices then that for the next weeks.

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Could you please show me how you derived 6.50$ target?

thanks

Sure,

well i’m not going to explain again the process i’ve already explained here in the comment section https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2011/06/04/long-term-update-weekly-analysis/

the formulas are:

P = (((avg / rms) – (1 / sqrt (n))) + 1) / 2

G = ((1+rms)^P*((1-rms)^(1-P))

for computing a low: reference price * e^((t * ln (g)) – (rms * sqrt (t)))

avg = 0.10

rms = 0.322

so the target using

11weeks in the future it is 6.61, i rounded it to 6.50$, using a starting point14.70$,why 14.70? it is the baricenter (how i compute it it is another story and i’ll explain it on another occasion) of the price range of week where the down swing started

why 11 weeks from now to compute the low? well because so far the btc/usd has fallen for 9 consecutive weeks, usually a swing may last up to 20-30 weeks then a correction is due.

just for curiosity, using 1 week just to forecast this week low i’ve 8.70$ and so far it worked out.

Thanks again, i remember your old post, it’s complicated but interesting, would be nice to have a spreadsheet that can do the job, computing the formulas and targets.

I have to find the time to do it,It’s way too complicated for the average user the spreadsheet i use

Can you give me some more information about trading ??

because i have read your post and it shows you have really good knowledge about it.

what kind of information are you interested for? theory? i’ve a section here labeled “technical background” with some information about the knowledge i use trying to understand what the market might do.