Short Term Update: MtGox

BTC/USD as usual is very volatile when large bitcoin holders enter/exit the market. In around 72 hours it moved from 5.75$ to 12$, the break out of my today range estimate (above 9-9.5$) is good but the overall long term picture is still bearish until the market show me the contrary. Looking my previous post, the weekly moving average is at 12$ and it will not be easy to pass it.

As i said in a couple of old posts the 9$ was my long term reference support, the fact that it quickly recovered that support could let me think that the recent drop down 9$ was only a selling climax. BTC/USD should stay above 9$ for the next 24-48 hours, possibly with a quick test of 7.5$ ; lower bound of today range estimate is at 6.2$ but i remain optimistic that the 7.5-9$ zone will hold.

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8 thoughts on “Short Term Update: MtGox

  1. adsense

    A lot of damage has been done to the bullish charts, we would need lots of sideways action before we can move up to 20-25 again, not this summer

  2. Stephen

    We will see $20 on or around the 19th of August, I will not say why but if you do your research then you will realise it will be a big move.

    1. Enky

      Selling climax is a period of very high volume and sharp downward movement, bear corrections in bull markets always end in selling climaxes, it could have happened with the recent low at 5.74$, but before buying for long term i need a confirmation from the market.

  3. Marc

    Yesterday’s support was at 8.45 $ and it worked well.
    In your tweet you mentioned a possible fall down to 7.70 $. What about the wall at 8.00 $ ? Do you think price range will go down to 8.50, 8.00 or even 7.70 $ for the next 24 hours ?

    1. Enky

      At this point i dont think it will go lower, 9$ it’s a good support but it might do a visit to 7.5-7.7 if a large bitcoin holder with 30-50k bitcoins start to sell, taking in account what those big bitcoins holders might do it is the difficult task when computing the levels for the next 24 hours , i always use an average value for volatility and sometime i publish also strong levels where the btc/usd might go if a large investor will dump something like 30 to 50 thousands bitcoins.
      Stay above 9$ is important, but also moving forward above 11-12$ it’s necessary to maintain the current short term rally.

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