Long Term Update: MtGox daily chart

Often the BTC/USD follow a 24 days cycle (12 days up movement  followed by 12 days down movement), during the strong rise of april-june instead it followed a 12 days full cycle (6 up, 6 down). I dunno why, perhaps it’s tied to the ~12 days period of bitcoin difficulty adjustment. So far is working very well and as you can see in the left chart now a reverse of the cycle is due.

The fact that cycles exist does not imply that they exist all the time. Cycles come and goand external events sometimes dominate and obscure existing cycles. Experience shows that cycles useful for trading are present only about 15 to 30 percent of the time. This corresponds remarkably with J.M. Hurst’s statement that “23% of all price motion is oscillatory in nature and semi-predictable.” It is analogous to the problem of the trend follower who finds that the markets “trend” only a small percentage of the time.

I strongly recommend J.M Hurst book “The Profit Magic of transaction Timing”




4 thoughts on “Long Term Update: MtGox daily chart

  1. marco

    Very interesting and insightful post, i love cycles but yes as you said one should always remember that cycles can easily explain anything – in the past. And this is a very dangerous point because you can get very impressive projection lines that do no forecast at all in reality.

    1. Enky

      You are right, it is very rare to see a stable cycle repeating many times in a row, i’m a bit bearish now on the btc/usd due to a discending triangle that is forming on the daily chart, another crash is possible.

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