Long Term Update: Weekly outlook at MtGox

I am very sad for all long term investors to report “No change” since my last weekly long term update, my weekly moving average has remained unchanged in its down movement and I am as pessimistic as ever that it will reverse soon.

Under the pressure of that moving average we are constantly falling and any attempt to rebounce failed to break above the average. I think that it will be difficult to avoid a breakdown of the 5.74$ august bottom, it will probably happen within the end of september or early october.

How long will the price fall last?
Well, i can’t say with certainty but i can compute an estimate of this weekly downswing assuming that it will last up to 25 weeks and average volatility, in this case i’ve as a target something around 3-4$, assuming instead a strong value of volatility i’ve ~2$ as possible target.