Long Term Update: TradeHill Weekly Chart

After a while i come back to check how is going this exchange founded by Jered Kenna in June. The volume increased after the first two months of sluggish activity; also here we have a confirmed buy signal from the inverse RSI fisher transform indicator and the weekly moving average that reversed this week.

Compared to the MtGox the price action is more stable because volatility doesn’t change so much like in the other one japanese exchange, probably because large players aren’t trading at Tradehill.

Recently i’m starting to observe better the volume activity on these bitcoin exchanges (virwox included) instead of looking only the MtGox. It is important, as i said in the bitcoin forum yesterday, to observe the Net Volume and not only the volume raw value. To compute the Net Volume we should do the difference beetween volume made on an Uptick and volume made on a Downtick for a particular bar (daily weekly or whatever you want). So watching carefully the net volume and how it develops with the pass of time is possible to better understand if this pressure is positive or negative and where it is headed. In this particular case, at TradeHill, the net volume started to become positive well before the market reversal giving to the smart investor a nice hedge.

At the moment the only way to compute the Net Volume is using the Sierrachart platform and the plugin made by Slush to grab data from bitcoincharts.com , then you can add to the chart the uptick downtick indicator, eventually export the data to excel for further data processing.



Long Term Update: MtGox Weekly Chart

As i said in the last post, for the first time in five months the weekly moving average i use turned bullish and also  the inverse Fisher Trasnform Relative Strength Index or RSI crossed the buying thresold located at -0.5  confirming the weekly uptrend.

I think this is a nice buying opportunity like the other one happened in mid april at ~0.7$; now the next step is to break the first important static level at 4$, a move that will bring more buying power so to reach a first important target in the 7$ zone.

Long Term Update: Weekly Chart MtGox

For the first time in five months the weekly moving average i use is turning bullish. Last time that this happened the BTC/USD moved from 0.56$ to 32$, i think that this market found a strong equilibrium at around 2$ and it is starting to reverse to the upside, i can’t forecast the exact intensity of this potential upswing but at least i can give it a try, this is why i bought today 100 btc and i’m planning to buy again above 3.8$

The inverse Fisher Trasnform Relative Strength Index or RSI is easing from an oversold position and going towards the buy thresold located at -0.5, when the fisher RSI will trigger a buy signal the BTC/USD will be probably above 3.8$ confirming the weekly uptrend.

I think that this could be a tremendous buying opportunity like the other one happened in mid april at ~0.7$; the first important static level to break is 4$ and then i have a forecasted level at around 7.5$ ( assuming average volatility) as first major weekly resistance to be met within first half of 2012. I’ve to note also that the mining difficulty is starting to rise again, in response to the recent bullish behaviour.

Short Term Update: MtGox daily chart

This is a short term view of the last 45 days (the distance between two vertical dotted lines is a week), after the first up swing the market retraced down to the 2$ level and it’s rebouncing from there approaching to what i call the death zone represented by the 7/8 of the distance measured from the low point to the high point of the reference swing. In this case it would be the area around 3.5-3.6$.

As i said in the past i call it the Death Zone because this is where many promising new swings die an early death without going above the reference top.
I’m not going to buy here because i publish only relatively safe trades here, but for who want to give a try i recommend to apply a tight stop loss under 2.65$ and a profit target at 3.5$