This week range estimate is 4.96$-5.34$. The February 2012 bottom at 3.87$ is strong support. I think a base building period characterized by a slow upward drifting movement is nearly complete. Given the very good resilience shown by BTC/USD since the drop from january top I think this means that a big rally is due but we lack an important element for now, volatility.
As i indicated in the below chart in the last 5 week we have had always positive net volume, this is good and tell us that investors are consistently buying this market.
I indicated also a 1 month target given current volatility level that is very low (about 15% of historical value), if bitcoin will move back to the volatility level shown in 2011 the next 30 days target is in the 8.3$ price zone but unlikely it will do it; would be great to touch 6.5$ by July.
I’m still long from 5.06$ and i think i’ll carry this trade for long term, considering also the very low volatility that nullify any short term trade opportunity.