Long Term Update: Weekly View at MtGox

I think we are seeing the beginning of a  weekly strong  uptrend after a long accumulation phase spent at 5$, if the BTC/USD will drop under 5.5$ the picture might change a little, in this case we will see probably the bitcoin moving sideways in the 4.5$-5.5$ zone

Judging the last 6-7  bars of this weekly chart net volume i see a nice buying pressure and i’m not worried for my open trade, at the moment i’m still bullish probably till mid July. I added a 1 month target in the chart and i used full volatility in the calculation of this target, so i think that will be very hard to go above 10$ for mid July.

Here a brief explanation of how i derived the 10.2$ target:

  1. compute natural logarithm of data increments
  2. compute the mean for all data increment computed in step 1
  3. compute rms (root mean square) of all data increments, squaring each data increment and sum all togheter, this process is simular to the calculation of standard deviation
  4. compute target multiplying reference price for the exponential of RMS and square root of time (in terms of hours days weeks or months)

    V0 * e^+rms * sqrt (t)

    where t is time, rms the volatility and V0 the reference price

The reference price i used is 6.2$ but you could use also an average value of a moving average or another digital filter.
At the moment the rms value is 0.091497, time is 30 because using daily values i want to see a monthly target , so 30 days and you have:

6.20*exp(+0.091497*sqrt(30))=10.2338$ rounded to 10.2$

You can compute RMS using last 2-3 months for better estimation of Current Volatility, at the moment volatility level is about 80% of  the historical value, if you do the math you have a target of ~8.5$ instead of 10.2$ that i consider the maximum target for the next month. For long term you should use a more complex approach because this one doesn’t include the growth factor, it is suitable only for short term; why? well  because if the growth is very negative or positive with the pass of time it erodes the effect of volatility lowering or raising the target estimate.

At the moment the historical daily growth factor of BTC/USD is negative and it reminds me a typical bubble behaviour; when it goes up is just because of  Volatility Bursts.


One thought on “Long Term Update: Weekly View at MtGox

  1. geek88

    Enky, Are you sure of a sustained move in bitcoin is underway?
    It looks to me that a capitulation in the commodities may occur and influence also the bitcoin , i consider it a commodity for now

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