Long Term Update: Weekly View at MtGox

This is a weekly view since october 2011. It is visible the November low at 1.94$ and the top at 7.2$ that has been broken recently, in the second pane of the chart there is the net volume and it’s clearly visible the strength of the current solid uptrend.

It is very important  to see buyers coming back in the form of a strong positive net volume on a weekly basis (we are close to ten weeks of nice buying pressure).

I included as usual a forecast for a mid term top, considering 25 weeks for this upswing and full historical volatility it will be very hard for BTC/USD to go above 13.9$ by the end of Septermber 2012 and as i said on my previous update i’m tempted to sell at around 8.5$ if i see some bearish signs; by the way the market seems to be holding well at the moment.

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Short Term Update: MtGox daily chart

This is a short term view of the last 30 days,the market after a strong rise to 6.80$ is moving sideways and still  fighting trying to reach the 7$ barrier. I’m noticing a drop in volatility and i need it in order to break the 7.2$ january top, at this point the BTC/USD might retest the lower channel at 6.1$ giving the opportunity to the smart speculator to open a long position for a quick bounce in prices.

I’ve talk about a maximum target of 10.2$ for mid July in the previous update, at this point is impossible to reach it with this drop of volatility, i’m more for a top at 8-8.5$ this month or next one where i’ll probably close the trade i opened at 5.06$

As you can see in the chart even the net volume is dropping confirming that bitcoin is losing steam and it is going sideways but still inside the keltner channel i drew on the chart.

If 6.1$ got broken strong support for this month is the previous accumulation price zone at around 5.2$