Short Term Update: MtGox daily chart

This is a short term view of the last 30 days,the market after a strong rise to 6.80$ is moving sideways and still  fighting trying to reach the 7$ barrier. I’m noticing a drop in volatility and i need it in order to break the 7.2$ january top, at this point the BTC/USD might retest the lower channel at 6.1$ giving the opportunity to the smart speculator to open a long position for a quick bounce in prices.

I’ve talk about a maximum target of 10.2$ for mid July in the previous update, at this point is impossible to reach it with this drop of volatility, i’m more for a top at 8-8.5$ this month or next one where i’ll probably close the trade i opened at 5.06$

As you can see in the chart even the net volume is dropping confirming that bitcoin is losing steam and it is going sideways but still inside the keltner channel i drew on the chart.

If 6.1$ got broken strong support for this month is the previous accumulation price zone at around 5.2$




2 thoughts on “Short Term Update: MtGox daily chart

  1. “At the moment the historical daily growth factor of BTC/USD is negative and it reminds me a typical bubble behaviour; when it goes up is just because of Volatility Bursts.” <— Are you indicating that overall BTC is a bubble or do you think it has a long term future (3~5yrs)?

    1. Enky

      At the moment the growth factor is 0.999312, compound it for 5 yrs and you have a long term target
      0.999312^(365days times 5 year)
      0.999312^1825=0.28 or 28% of the initial value, so if it is 7.6$ you have 2.12$ target price for 2017

      if you consider ALSO volatility, the picture changes a lot, with historical volatility and 5 yrs from now you have 105$ as a target price or resistance. Thanks to volatility burst bitcoin to usd can pump and dump very quickly and many times, it’s the paradise of the short term speculator:)
      I dunno if it has long term future but at the moment the high volatility it has isn’t good for long term, i’m only sure of this, the risk for a collapse is very high but also the potential outcome. You always have to look for investments with high growth and low volatility so to maximize the returns and minimize risks. With the quantitative approach i’m using it is possible also to compute the ideal amount of your capital to put at risk with bitcoin, and now it is around 4% of your wealth, i recommend to do not invest more then 5% of your total wealth in bitcoins at the moment.

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