Portfolio Update

LONG | from 5 .06$ with 1 unit (100 btc) bought on April 18, 2012


Considering what i’ve written on my previous update i decided to extend again the duration of this trade because of the recent strength shown by bitcoin, in the last 4 weeks the market accelerated nicely to 11$, giving current volatility BTC/USD can still reach destination at 14$ as planned.

If it will break the support point that i’ve computed at ~9.9$ i’ll consider it a first warning for a trend reversal signal, especially if confirmed by a bearish or negative ” net volume” activity.


5 thoughts on “Portfolio Update

  1. arthurcosti

    Hello my friend, i was looking into Sierra Chart studies and didn’t found the Net Volume study you use so often here to see if there is a buying or selling pressure, did you configure it by yourself? If so can you explain how to insert it on my graph at sierra chart?

    I follow your blog since last year and your accuracy is great! Keep the excellent work!

    1. There isn’t any netvolume indicator by default on SierraChart, you should compute it plotting the difference beetween uptick and downtick volume using the “study subgraph difference” indicator that mainly compute the difference beetween 2 indicators of your choice, in this case up and downtick volumes.
      So add the up and downtick volume to the chart, add the “study subgraph difference” indicator and select inside it the up and downtick indicators to compute the difference or netvolume; plot the “study subgraph difference” to conclude the procedure.

  2. zisterer

    Hi Enky, I wounder how you get to this conclusions, I asume you use Microsofts ARIMA. What is intresting is that there is the difficulty in the hashrate which is influenced by the ammount of people mining which is possible not recocnised or considdered by any Time Series Algorythm. The other problem is the reward per Block is now 50 BTC but roundabout December only half (25) BTC this again is not considdered by the algorythm. The third point would be the trading on trading platforms which could be calculated whit Time Series Algorythm. I dont want to criticise your forecast, it would be intresting to know how you predict the outcome price US/BTC. If you look at the computing speed http://bitcoin.sipa.be/, it would be intresting if you could predict the Bitcoin Network Computation speed growth for the next month until December.
    All the best R.

  3. I dont use microsoft arima, i tried in the past without much success with an arima process to model and forecast bitcoin price and/or hashing speed. Under the technical section of the blog you can find useful information on how i compute support/resistance both in time and price and many other theoretical concepts that i keep in mind when trying to forecast btc/usd and other stuff as well (commodities, stocks,etc….)
    At the end is difficult to correctly forecast any short term movement, is more easier to forecast long term movement looking the difference beetween volume activity and price action to have an idea of what long term investors are doing; what here keep things complicated is the volatility of bitcoin that changes very quickly from a very low to a very high level in a short time keeping difficult to do a proper forecast of resistance & support, you have to guess the correct level of volatility.
    In this particular case i computed 9.9$ using 60% of historical volatility and 7 days (recently i’ve started to publish on monday a price range for the entire week)
    If you have any questions i’m here, see you around!

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