I was expecting a major drop after my last update but BTC/USD reacted immediately and at the moment it is finding resistance at 13.5$ where the ask side of the book is heavy loaded up to 14$ and for the short term i think bitcoin will need more time to get through that resistance zone.
After 23 price bars (or 23 days) spent after the break out of the 12.7$ level (happened on 4 Dec) and considering that usually a congestion may last up to 30 bars, i think that in the next 1-2 weeks bitcoin will finally take a decision and it will go somewhere above 14$ or below 12.7$; considering the underlying long term trend the odds are for an upside breakout.
In the last month, when a small intraday drop occured, every time buyers stepped in buying this market, this is not bearish but bullish behaviour, i dont see aggressive selling activity because sellers probably want higher prices and have lifted their target selling prices and they are unwilling to dump at these prices their coins. This is my interpretation of what happened in the last month after the halving date.
Price range for next 1-2 weeks is 12.6$-14.15$
Happy New Year and see you guys in 2013.