chart copy3 inside bars in the last 3 days, BTC/USD is close to be in a congestion area, the measuring bar for the congestion is the  bar of last April, 19.

Usually any time prices close on four consecutive bars, within the confines of the range of a “measuring bar”, you have a congestion. The measuring bar broke also the VWAP from below to above it, a sign that i consider a bullish setup.

On the attached chart i plot the +2/-2 standard deviation line but when volatility drops a bit we can consider also the +1/-1; the +1 std. deviation line is at 139$, close to the recent high of 136.5$, the -1 std.deviation line is at 75$.

I think that if we are going to see a prolonged period of congestion it is not excluded a visit to 75$ if BTC/USD breaks down out of the congestion pattern, time will tell. For now i stay long with my long term trade, stoploss is under the 50$ double bottom support.

Last comment about the recent spike in volatility, well i never seen before an insane volatility like the one see in the bitcoin market, to give you an idea actual volatility is something like 13 times more then the historical volatility of american stocks, just crazy!


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