Short Term Update: Holding above support

BTC/USD formed a double bottom at 120$ on the hourly chart, and it is reacting well, as long as it stays above the VWAP at 114$ i’m not worried.

If another quick flash crash will take place i recommend to watch out the 75$-80$ price zone where i think BTC/USD will find support and react strongly; that price zone is around the minus one standard deviation of April volume weighted average price. It is a very improbable occurrence a test to the -2 standard deviation line at 50$, so for the remaining part of April and probably till mid May, BTC/USD will stay away from fifty dollars. chart

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7 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Holding above support

  1. damnek

    Enky, I can tell that you’re using a more option-oriented approach to bitcoin now, and it seems to work out well. Can you explain why you reset the price deviation in the beginning of the month?

    1. Yes, to avoid to use too much the past, resetting each month and using a daily time frame, i don’t have more then 30 bars and basically i’m observing current cycle at work.

  2. Andrea Chiavazza

    I started following your website only recently, but at first I was a bit confused about your posts. You talk about things like closing your trade when the BTC is high and watching out for when the BTC is low, presumably so that you can buy them.
    Then I understood. You seem to be trading bitcoins in order to increase your stash of dollars. I think most people in the bitcoin community usually trade dollars to try to increase their stash of BTC.
    So what you would do is the opposite: you watch for the BTC to peak so that you can buy some dollars, then you would sell them when you think the BTC has bottomed and close the trade.
    Don’t take this the wrong way, I still think your blog is quite useful and your analyses are quite spot on, especially for me that I’m a noob in the field. It’s just that I keep having to mentally reverse most of your sentences!

    1. Bitcoin is an experiment, a cryptocurrency protocol that has no intrinsic value and it’s not legally accepted by any countries in the world, therefore for the time being i’m trading btc to increase my stash in USD, if things change and bitcoin will finally have some acceptance by banks or governments then i might reverse the approach and do the opposite, basically thinking in bitcoin and not in USD; in any case sooner or later an exchange that will offer the possibility to go short on BTC will emerge and it will be possible to trade both directions regardless if you are thinking in btc or usd:)

  3. Daniel

    So, do you think Bitcoin price will rise next weeks or it´s a good time to sell, wait till it goes under 50$ and then, buy?
    Thank you.

    1. AS i wrote in one of my last post, was good to sell at resistance, near 170$ but for now i’m not selling and i’m holding my long position opened at 13$ last december.
      It is not a matter of where to buy but WHEN, if you just buy under 50$ without considering any other factor might even fail as a strategy.

      1. Daniel

        Okay, thank you. The problem is that i had clear till last week what to do, and i´ve sold some BTC´s near 170$, but another BTC´s i had were on bitcoin-24.com (the exchange closed,a month ago and i´ll recover my BTC´s tomorrow). Now i can´t see clearly what will happen, i was expecting a big correction, but it didn´t happen, so now i´m considering to selling at +-140$ or waiting a till the price grows up (but will price grow up soon?) I´m quite confused. :/

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