Long Term Update: MtGox sold 1 unit at 128$ now flat

I decided to close this long term trade initiated 5 months ago (december 2012) and take a break. This is the second consecutive day with negative net volume (outflow of money from the market) and this starts to worry me a bit because BTC/USD is doing lower highs and it failed to go above the 170$ resistance level. If i’m wrong there are no problems, i’ll wait a strong breakout of an important resistance before buying again this market. In the meanwhile i’ll observe carefully the support level at 110$ or so.

I bought at 13$ 5 months ago, profit for this trade is ~11500$, total gross profit so far 14261$, 9 trades profitable out of 14 total trades.

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18 thoughts on “Long Term Update: MtGox sold 1 unit at 128$ now flat

  1. Bobo

    Not bad, i’ve sold at 142$ yesterday, I think btc usd is heading towards a test of 120$ again

  2. Enky, thank you so much for these most valuable informations and updates on BTC market. I sincerely hope that you will continue to provide us with your insights as a professional trader, despite closing your position for now.

    1. Enky

      Thanks but It’s a free service, i keep this blog udated in the sparetime as a bitcoin enthusiast. On average i do 3-4 updates each month regardless if i’ve an open trade or not.

  3. cookiecrumbles

    I hope you will keep on sharing info despite closing your trade. I am pleased having your professional and valuable advice.

  4. Enky, I second the remarks above. This is such a valuable service you’re providing for the Bitcoin community, please don’t stop. BitsForCoins will make a donation to your efforts in short order, and we’ll encourage the rest of the community to do the same. Be well.

    Best Regards,

    Thaddeus McBron
    BFC Server Sales

  5. fahben

    I think,BTCs should stay “floating” between +80€ to (around)110€ for the moment.(sorry,I trade €)
    But maybe we can expect a raise when Malta’s economic issues will be known soon.Like for Cyprus,Investors started investin in bitcoins because of the taxes.BTC showed us it can be seen as a “shelter currency” and take advantage on these kind of situations.
    Or we can imagine a big raise if Paypal starts workin with bitcoins,like the “KimDotCom effect”.And with its big volumes,it could be possible too.
    Or some weeks ago,people even started speculating on a bitcoin at 1000$ in a couple of month (years?).but this is something much more hypothetical.
    Anyway,even if the market is down these days,Im not that worried.It’s normal after that big rush around the 9th April.
    And BTC profits can be made but on long term.
    Personnally,I’m lurkin with my btc and I’m not sellin them under 125€ for the moment.
    regards,
    Great blog btw 🙂
    J’adore!

    1. Enky

      Good Luck then, i’m holding too for long term all the bitcoins i’ve mined in 2010/2011.

  6. “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.”

    I think this quote from Warren Buffet applies now 😉

  7. Ign-Cio

    You nailed the strong bounce off the std dev -1 supp… and grasped my attention. I wonder how do you interpret the actual standing almost on line with the 30-day VWAP. Would you trust RSI for short, or what analysis would you use in this circumstance? what do you interpret is the tendency for the next few days?

    I think most of us would like to hear from you more than 4 times per month 😉

    Regards

    1. Enky

      RSI is not a good indicator, i’d rather use MFI( Money Flow Indicator) instead. I remind you that VWAP can be thought of as the market’s evolving estimate of value. In a non-trending market, price will move away from VWAP giving to investors quick trading opportunities like the one few days ago at 80$ that i’ve exploited buying at 82$ and closing it at 113$ (i don’t post on the blog all my trading activity, especially countertrend very risky trades). Aniway, If that interest is lacking, we will tend to gravitate back toward that VWAP value level, so if the vwap is flat and price is near it don’t do any trade or try to switch to another time frame (hourly or 15 min).

      1. Ign-Cio

        Exactly my thoughts (regarding how to act in this flat VWAP scenario). I did a similar trade at 67€ and 63€ and pulled back at 79€, based in part on your assumption of possible rebounce. So thanks for that 😉

        I´ll get informed about the MFI, cause at a first glance it seems to give a similar information to RSI.

        What do you reckon would happen in another hit to std dev -1 support line? How do you analyze the situation when we approach those break points?

        Sorry if I am bothering you, making this some kind of masters degree on stock market basics, but the few things I knew don´t seem to apply to this volatile environment of bitcoins.

        Kind regards, and thanks for your time.

      2. Enky

        Another test at 80$ i think it will be bearish and it will probably not hold, probably going down to to the sixty dollars.
        I watch out volume activity and price patterns at critical points at different time frame (hourly, daily, weekly and monthly) trying to guess the next move.

  8. Steffen

    Hi Enky (and all other commentators),

    thanks for your analysis! I downloaded Sierra Chart and played a little with it.
    In this connection, I have a bunch of questions I would like to ask you:
    – for the VWAP, what time period makes sense and what does it indicate if the prize goes below or above it?
    – Standard Deviation Bands: again, what time period do you use here? Do you use weighted moving averages? You wrote +/- 1 Std Dev is a strong support – why is that?
    – What other indicators are there that make sense for analysing bitcoin (Bollinger)?

    Thanks alot!

    Best Steffen

    1. Enky

      Original VWAP is intended for day trading, starting from market open, there is not a fixed period, it is a cumulative average. Here it’s a bit different because the market is always open so it’s up to you to find a good compromise. For short term indications I reset the average at the start of each month to avoid to use too much past data, standard deviation you can use multiple of 1-2, i use 1 and i plot +1 and +2 standard deviation lines. The only weighted mov.avg i use it’s the alma, it’s explained in the technical section of this blog.

  9. Steffen

    Hi Enky,

    “This is the second consecutive day with negative net volume (outflow of money from the market)”

    Where do you get this numbers from?

    1. Enky

      from mtgox data feed, looking volume made on uptick and downtick thanks to sierrachart platform. I already explained it in mine previous posts, read them:)

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