This is a short term view of May, as usual i added the VWAP and deviation lines. After two failed attempts to break the upper channel line at 121$ the market is now consolidating in a narrow range around 115$. Despite this congestion phase i think that BTC/USD is preparing a new upside move, why?
Well, i’ve learned in many years that positive reaction to bad news tells you that investors sentiment is bullish because they minimize bad news and emphasize good news. The ability of Bulls to maintain a sequence of higher lows (bottom at 79$,97$ and 104$ after the bad news of MtGox in USA) does suggest a major move to the upside. A breakout of 120$-125$ resistance price zone will probably convince me to open a new trade.
To conclude it’s always hard to say on which direction BTC/USD will break but i must consider that the underlying long term trend is still UP. Thus, i’m tempted to say that this price congestion will probably resolve in an upside breakout of the vwap upperline.