Update: Mtgox

UploadImageAfter my previous update this market has rallied to this month at around 100$. I thought in my last update that the first level to test was 81$ instead BTC/USD reacted and slowly rised up to ~100$, thus i’ve to conclude that it might move a bit higher over the coming weeks with 120$ as a possible target. In addition, prices are holding above the short term VWAP and at least in the short term the situation remains bullish despite the bearish bias of my last update.

Long Term View

UploadImageLong Term situation is interesting with BTC/USD standing around the long term VWAP at 99-100$. Aniway as long as bitcoin stays at or under 100$ i prefer to don’t open a long trade although the weekly moving average is trying to reverse to the upside giving the possibility to see a long term intermediate top at 115-120$. At the same time the bearish scenario for August is not yet excluded and a violation of the 80$ short term support could mean lower prices. So, for the time being i’ve decided to stay out from this market till i see a more clear sign of bullish activity.


6 thoughts on “Update: Mtgox

  1. Adsense

    Interesting update Enky, i think that this market will rally to a new bull market and historical high above 266$ before the next halving block date (from 25 to 12.5 btc/block)

    1. Andrea Chiavazza

      The next halving block date will be around 2016-10. That’s quite a long time!
      I tend to agree with those who say that on the long term bitcoin will be worth either $10000 or $0, either adopted or abandoned.
      So I think it’s hard to imagine BTC still in the $100-$300 range in 3 years time. I think it will be either in the $10-$30 or in the $1000-$3000 range. =)

  2. Andrea Chiavazza

    I was following both the BTC and the gold price and I noticed how they both fell (BTC from 110 to 104) when better than expected US GDP was announced.
    BTC might start to behave like the gold and follow its trend, and I think this makes sense as they are somewhat similar due to their limited supply.
    Following this logic, we might expect BTC rallies when bad news come from our “just-keep-pushing-the-money-printing-button-and-don’t-worry” current economic system. =)

    1. Enky

      yes and no, correlation does not imply causation and don’t forget that this market is too little compared to commodities, stocks, bonds….

  3. Andrea Chiavazza

    It looks like the hashrate is going parabolic!
    This is good for bitcoin as the network is strengthened.
    Not quite so good for miners thought.
    I must say I’m not repented of having just sold my BFL 60 miner pre-order. Now I no longer sweat when the hashrate goes up =)
    I paid it $1250 and sold it for $2700, so it’s been a good deal regardless of whatever will happen next.

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