BTC/USD is heating up again and trending up nicely during this month, i think that showing you guys a chart covering all this year will help us to understand better where bitcoin is going in the mid-long term.
Bitcoin is near a strong resistance, the long term first deviation line of the VWAP and i think it will be hard to break this level, currently around 134$, but the long term trend is pushing up and eventually in September/October we might see BTC/USD well above 134$. Short Term support is at 115$, that is an intermediate top of June 21, now support.
For the time being i don’t buy, i want to see if there is enough fuel in the tank to pass 134$.
As a side note, i’m not much happy of the large spread that there is between Mtgox and Bistamp, it’s probably related to withdrawal issues not yet resolved with Mtgox. Overall this is not good and it is not excluded the risk to collapse from panic withdrawals with the consequence of a flash crash. If MtGox is going to collapse it would be very bad for bitcoin, at least in the short term. By then, hopefully new and better exchanges should arise.