Quick Update

chartA quick flash crash and BTC/USD is again at around my static support,i think that this drop is temporary and i bet that the VWAP will provide support at 107$ for the coming days. I’m not going to close my half position (50 btc bought at 140$) before a price stabilisation that will occur probably somewhere between here and 105$.
If 105$ will not hold then there are the 2 deviation lines indicated in the chart, 85$ and 62$ where strong buyers will probably show up.

UPDATE October, 3
BTC/USD bottomed out at 109.7$ very close to the VWAP that provided support as i was expecting yesterday, the question now is whether this is a high volume breakout that portends much lower prices, or a high volume shakeout that will quickly be reversed. So far BTC/USD reacted from VWAP back to the first deviation line at 131$ and it is important now to don’t start to drift lower and lower in what i’ll call a secondary reaction that might end at 90$.

Since the market is still above an important moving average i’m plotting since july bottom at 65$ and trending higher since then, I am leaning towards the shakeout theory rather than toward the breakout theory. If I am right we shall see a rally back above the 131$ level during the next couple of days. Should we finish today or tomorrow above 140$ I think a substantial rally will have started.

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10 thoughts on “Quick Update

  1. As a side note: I have to admit though, Mtgox has held the enormous traffic with complete lack of problems. Quite impressed with that new engine or w/e they made to solve their previous lag fests in these situations.

  2. Andrea Chiavazza

    It looks to me like it would have been a great chance to buy at $110. Shame I have no cash as I just bought 5kg of silver. =)
    I’m not sure whether Silkroad was really an asset or a liability to bitcoin. I think the bitcoin price will recover quicker than we think.

  3. roberto

    great analysis , i really think you are right here and this recent downtrend is temporarly , i didnt find the VWAP on bitcoincharts , which charts are you using ? do you know a good bitcoin charts that has the VWAP ?

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