A quick flash crash and BTC/USD is again at around my static support,i think that this drop is temporary and i bet that the VWAP will provide support at 107$ for the coming days. I’m not going to close my half position (50 btc bought at 140$) before a price stabilisation that will occur probably somewhere between here and 105$.
If 105$ will not hold then there are the 2 deviation lines indicated in the chart, 85$ and 62$ where strong buyers will probably show up.
UPDATE October, 3
BTC/USD bottomed out at 109.7$ very close to the VWAP that provided support as i was expecting yesterday, the question now is whether this is a high volume breakout that portends much lower prices, or a high volume shakeout that will quickly be reversed. So far BTC/USD reacted from VWAP back to the first deviation line at 131$ and it is important now to don’t start to drift lower and lower in what i’ll call a secondary reaction that might end at 90$.
Since the market is still above an important moving average i’m plotting since july bottom at 65$ and trending higher since then, I am leaning towards the shakeout theory rather than toward the breakout theory. If I am right we shall see a rally back above the 131$ level during the next couple of days. Should we finish today or tomorrow above 140$ I think a substantial rally will have started.
Bitcoin Trading Ideas, Analysis 
SR was shut down and DPR was arrested. Price is going to plummet.
so bitcoin is only SR? come on dont be silly:)
obviously, not – but in the bitcoin world any good or bad news causes large fluctuations.
Enky,
it´s related to Silk Road being closed by FBI. So you should probably add that to your equations.
As a side note: I have to admit though, Mtgox has held the enormous traffic with complete lack of problems. Quite impressed with that new engine or w/e they made to solve their previous lag fests in these situations.
I find it amazing that they shut the website down and crash the price as news and rumors come out that Obama will seize money from peoples bank acounts if they choose to opt out from Obamacare. Coincidence?
http://www.infowars.com/obamacare-fines-to-be-seized-from-bank-accounts/
It looks to me like it would have been a great chance to buy at $110. Shame I have no cash as I just bought 5kg of silver. =)
I’m not sure whether Silkroad was really an asset or a liability to bitcoin. I think the bitcoin price will recover quicker than we think.
great analysis , i really think you are right here and this recent downtrend is temporarly , i didnt find the VWAP on bitcoincharts , which charts are you using ? do you know a good bitcoin charts that has the VWAP ?
If I’m not mistaken, Enky uses http://www.sierrachart.com/, but for free you can always try https://www.tradingview.com/, which supports VWAP, only for sub-day charts though.
Yes i use sierrachart with a plugin to load mtgox data