Long Term Update: still trending UP

btcusddailyHere is one of the daily bar charts i use to keep track of the current bull market trend. The first thing i notice in this chart is that the BTC/USD is very high and above a rising 200 day moving average (white line) ; a typical bull market configuration. The price is also above its 50 day moving average (red line).

Reactions within a bull market typically take the price below its 50 day moving average and near its 200 day moving average. The July 5 low at 65$ is a good example of a  reaction that terminates at the 200 day moving average and below the 50 day moving average.
The position of the 200 day moving average in this chart give us a reference limit of a correction within an ongoing bull market (now around 120$), so this means that the next important bottom should be at or higher then 120$.

A first possible sign that the bull market is near the end would be a  strong drop below its 200 day moving average followed by a quick rally back to it with a 50 day moving average pointing down. It is not the case here with both averages advancing strongly.

Thinking back to April top at $266 at that time the price was 190 dollars above the 50 days moving average, projecting that situation today we should have a top at about $ 340 ($150 plus $190) which is what i’d like to see: a decisive break of the previous top at $ 266 that will probably attract many sellers.

Instead, a strong move above 350-400 dollars during this month would surprise me confirming the suspect that this market is probably really booming.

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