Short Term Update: hourly chart at BTCchina

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Hourly chart at BTCchina, it is interesting to see that the market behaviour has been bearish all the way down since 1240$ top of yesterday. The volume activity also confirms the short term weakness, bearish volume (second pane in the attached chart). In the third pane there is the total volume, two volume spikes are visible when the market bottomed twice at 950$.

I think that now there could be a short term trade opportunity, for who want to try i recommend to buy now and sell half position at the first resistance , the VWAP at 1055$, and the rest of the position at the first deviation line, around 1150$. Stoploss  should be placed below the double bottom, at around 920$. Also the relative strength index oscillator confirm the trade because it is reversing to the upside from an oversold position.

UPDATE 10 HRS LATER
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As you can see the signal worked and now we are at a resistance, the VWAP, and the RSI oscillator is overbought, both price and time indications that advise us to close the position in profit. This is a nice example of the intraday possibility of this market.

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24 thoughts on “Short Term Update: hourly chart at BTCchina

      1. Enky

        no i wrote in the previous update that above 700 is not yet bearish but it is in the short term looking volume activity as indicated on the chart, it is stabilizing around 1k usd

  1. Fox

    I made the short trade as you suggested sir. Thank you. I will be eagerly awaiting your suggestions on another good time to buy in. Also I agree the alt coins are just along for the bitcoin ride.

  2. krolls

    Thanks Enky your last 15m chart post and this one have been really helpful. After last post is when i really started making successful trades. I have a question though. This time you picked 1h chart instead of 15m, if i understand it is the speed at which market and price move that makes you pick, correct?

    1. Enky

      Yes and no, i tend to use different time frames to spot trading opportunities, hourly chart to spot a trading opportunity and maybe the 15 min to refine the entry.
      Instead of the speed, the size is different, a trade on an h1 chart requires larger stop loss and of course a bigger take profit, so more risky for who doesnt have a decent quantity of money to support higher drawdowns.

    1. Enky

      If you want to invest for the long term you don’t need to wait, just buy, the underlying trend is UP. I usually recommend to invest 50% now and if there is a correction invest the remaining 50% of what you initially have had in mind to invest in them.

  3. Wai

    I just want to say thank you for sharing your idea in the blog
    Your analysis has been accurate and visionary. Would be nice to see you update more frequently.
    looks like btc has loss the uptrend momentum, maybe that’s because it challenges the price of gold
    people are waiting to see what’s going on next, even myself stop trading and have all my position closed since the movement is not clear
    meanwhile ltc is going back in track, I don’t think ltc will ever replace btc but it is still worth a look imo, the market should be able to support 2 different crypto-currency at once, ltc has it’s unique value and more importantly it’s 30 times cheaper than btc
    at the end I definitely agree that bitcoin will still go up in the long run,unless satoshi decide to throw millions of bitcoin into the market at once, lol

    1. Enky

      Many Thanks Wai but i disagree on altcoins, i still consider them just a distraction without a real benefit fo bitcoin. Total market cap of all altcoin is 1.3 billions, 10% of bitcoin and they are only contributing to dilute bitcoin value, no good.
      30 times cheaper litecoin? it doesnt mean it’s 30 times better, it’s a misconception that because it is cheaper it has to go up. I strongly recommend to stay far away from altcoin scam.

      1. Wai

        I should clarify my thoughts better, I do agree that the majority of altcoins are distraction, it just make the serious innovative cryptocurrency look stupid.
        This may sound silly, but the fact that the price/ltc is cheaper make me feel that people may be more willing to put money into ltc. PLUS, the confirmation of transaction of ltc is quicker than btc, more coins will be released, still in early stage means it has higher potential to grow. The technical specification of ltc is different.
        Think of it as gold and silver, the global market can definitely support both btc and ltc.
        Having 2 kind of currency has it’s benefit, one could act as reserve and damp the price moment of the other.

        All in all, what I am trying to imply is that ltc does worth noticing, I am not saying it will replace btc, in fact I don’t think that is going to happen. My view to ltc is open ended, it could go either way but I am in favor of it.

        Cheers!

      2. Enky

        I still disagree with you:) there is no benefit in using litecoin, cheap? just teach people to use mBTC (1/1000 of a btc) and it is cheap now 1 mBTC is 1.2 usd, cheaper then litecoin.
        Litecoin has a small value as a backup blockchain in case some critical flaw destroys bitcoin’s blockchain , and the same flaw might destroy as well litecoin blockchain because more or less it’s a clone of btc.
        Faster confirmation time means also less security so litecoin might be exploited in some way. And don’t forget that zero-conf Bitcoin transactions work for just about everything. So thinking that litecoin is silver and bitcoin gold, it doesn’t make sense to me because i can say at the same time that the mBTC is the silver to BTC’s gold:)
        Think about it
        Bye

  4. Andrea Chiavazza

    Huge sell-offs happening right now… My guess is it was triggered by the news about “China central bank warns banks against use of bitcoin”. There was also a news about Greenspan but I don’t think it was very significant.

  5. kroll

    Enky, doesn’t China state that business and financial institution and instruments are banned from using bitcoin? They also defined it as commodity not currency. Do you think we can expect further sell-offs

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