Short Term Update

chartThis night i’ve lost a clean buying opportunity at around 5 am (gmt+1 time) , unfortunately as a human being sometimes  i’ve to sleep.
Once rsi cross the thresold you can evalute if to take the trade or not by looking  VWAP lines as an estimation of price position.
Considering the high level of volatility the distance between the lines increased so in these cases you can consider an intermediate level between  VWAP and first deviation line  (not plotted on the attached chart but it is around $670) . So having good price and time indications it was wise to take the trade at around 680$ and it’s preferable to maximize the trade outcome closing it when a resistance is met (the vwap) and when rsi is overbought. Both conditions happened later and this trading opportunity has been a very clean one; very often these market movements are very smooth and natural.

Now BTC/USD is sliding with a reduced speed and it might do an higher low, probably above 650$. RSI indicates an oversold position and my gut feel tells me that a bottom is near the corner, probably 3-4 hours from now.

Eventually you can add bollinger bands and look for a bollinger band squeeze, it occurs when volatility falls to low levels and the bollinger bands narrow. Periods of low volatility are followed by periods of high volatility. Therefore, this behaviour can foreshadow a significant advance or decline. For example a new advance starts with a squeeze and subsequent break above the upper band. Instead a decline starts with a squeeze and break below the lower band.
The bollinger band squeeze indicator is available with Sierrachart, also with the free version. Have fun experimenting it!

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