Short Term Update

chartThis night i’ve lost a clean buying opportunity at around 5 am (gmt+1 time) , unfortunately as a human being sometimes  i’ve to sleep.
Once rsi cross the thresold you can evalute if to take the trade or not by looking  VWAP lines as an estimation of price position.
Considering the high level of volatility the distance between the lines increased so in these cases you can consider an intermediate level between  VWAP and first deviation line  (not plotted on the attached chart but it is around $670) . So having good price and time indications it was wise to take the trade at around 680$ and it’s preferable to maximize the trade outcome closing it when a resistance is met (the vwap) and when rsi is overbought. Both conditions happened later and this trading opportunity has been a very clean one; very often these market movements are very smooth and natural.

Now BTC/USD is sliding with a reduced speed and it might do an higher low, probably above 650$. RSI indicates an oversold position and my gut feel tells me that a bottom is near the corner, probably 3-4 hours from now.

Eventually you can add bollinger bands and look for a bollinger band squeeze, it occurs when volatility falls to low levels and the bollinger bands narrow. Periods of low volatility are followed by periods of high volatility. Therefore, this behaviour can foreshadow a significant advance or decline. For example a new advance starts with a squeeze and subsequent break above the upper band. Instead a decline starts with a squeeze and break below the lower band.
The bollinger band squeeze indicator is available with Sierrachart, also with the free version. Have fun experimenting it!

29 thoughts on “Short Term Update

  1. andrew henson

    Hello, Can you let me know what trading platform you are using to generate the image with the different lines on. I buy and sell btc using bitstamp.



      1. Fabrizio

        My enky coming back to reason 🙂 BTC is not a weak market. Speculators can make it week if they keep gambling with it and never use it. Personally I see it on the long term as trading with BTC especially intraday is the more risky thing you can do. And yes I don’t have your talent. My BTC are on a cold wallet and half will be sold when they are Around 10000 each.
        Buy the way u don’t earn anything until u sold. So at this time u earned money and I didn’t. Maybe I will never do 🙂 I realize it.

      2. Enky

        I am very worried about banks obstructionism, accounts closed as soon as they hear the word bitcoin is not a good thing. It’s hard to raise money and let bitcoin grow up when banks don’t help you, it’s a problem also for long term, what if all countries apply restrictions as china has just done?

      3. andrew henson is an option as crowd funding seems the best way to raise money instead of using a bank

  2. me

    What do you think about the argument that the LTC/BTC price indicates how likely it is that we’re in a bubble? I’ve read this argument several times now (e.g., at the 3rd last paragraph) and the data seems to match. It appears that every time the LTC/BTC ratio spikes both BTC and LTC fall in comparison to the USD. Just coincidence, or is the fact that people buy worthless altcoins a somewhat reliable indicator (in addition to RSI, etc.)?

    1. Enky

      It makes sense to me but i’m not a great fan of litecoin.
      It could be a bubble indicator but personally (as explained in the past) i use another method to measure if an asset is over or under priced. At the moment bitcoin is not in a bubble, it’s well priced ok but not yet in a bubble.

      1. andrew henson

        hello, my take on litecoin is to buy up as much as you can. long term it could reach dizzy heights as the price has increased since btc took off. consider long term only. same for all other alternatives really.

  3. Do you believe that the 50% principle will hold in this case?

    Bitcoin is holding above 50% of our recent gains. If this continues to Tuesday, conventional wisdom in technical analysis indicates that we should expect an significant jump, correct?

      1. Fabrizio

        Hello, From Bitstamp to localbitcoin, it takes 5mn, like a normal BTC withdraw from Bitstamp to any wallet 🙂 Suppose it’s the same from MTgox

      2. Thank, recently joined them too. Where are the best videos to learn how to use/move BTC and to practice? have yet to make 1st transaction like so many other BTC [speculator] proponents. Seems the mental block and limited use as currency is the current cause of the speculator-itus.

      3. Jukka Santala

        Hi, please be aware that at present it is reportedly practically impossible to get fiat currency eg. USD out of MtGox. Getting Bitcoins out requires them first verifying your identity and residence, a process said to take from two weeks upward, and if they’re approved they’ve now instituted (with no prior warning) 0.001 BTC transaction fee (for the Bitcoin network) per transfer. They will gladly take your Bitcoins with no questions asked, though. This is the main reason MtGox is always about 5% above other exchanges.
        They’ve also gone down (intentionally or due to overload) for upwards to three hours or randomly disappear/re-appear trade orders done through their web-site during strong price movements, and offer no stop loss orders from within their system. Unfortunately none of this was mentioned in any of the news covering MtGox nor easily accessible on their site. I myself was just looking to quickly cash out my Bitcoins at their high point, but am still waiting for them to clear my identifcation, so had to ride out the recent bumps and managed to lose half of my starting balance in the process – at least I didn’t pay money for them. Hence my newfound interest in Bitcoin investing.
        At this point however I wouldn’t really recommend them for anything but losing money, at the very least make sure your identification & proof of residence clear before transfering the first bit of money there and use external program to trade there.

        Bitcoin network will confirm previous transactions every 10 minutes, standard paranoid practice for merchants/exchanges is to wait for 6 confirmations before considering a transaction done, so technically it will usually take at least a hour before any Bitcoin transaction clears. It can be seen on the Bitcoin network in 1-10 minutes though (which is probably enough for face-to-face traders) and provisionally sent forward so the whole chain of transactions clears together. The 0.001 BTC fee is suggested to speed up the transfer, but it’s not normally required, nor do I think it will actually have any effect on speed currently. A Bitcoin wallet (such as the official QtBitcoin client which requires PC with fast connection) is of course required to transfer Bitcoins; mobile phones have their own Bitcoin wallets that make it somewhat easier to verify a transaction made face to face, as well as scan in the Bitcoin account addresses that Bitcoins are sent to.

      4. for those wishing to trade with Mtgox BTC would you recommend xfering btc to say coinbase or another? who would you recommend to xfer to, if you do recommend xfering somewhere else for trading at all. the fees are excessive for the mishaps I have had at mtgox .. they have recently caused me to lose great equity for failure to execute market orders.

      5. Enky

        first, forget about mtgox, i consider it a dead exchange.
        Second yes, you can buy btcs there and move them to another exchange if you want to convert them to fiat.

      6. What i meant to say, those ‘stuck’ with Mtgox .. they aren’y actually who stuck. Bitstamp is being a bugger with ‘verification’ “PAPERS”.. Who would you all recommend transferring to from Mtgox?

      7. Enky

        if u want to withdraw fiat money yes, i’m already verified so i dunno how much it’s needed to get verified at bitstamp

  4. Fabrizio

    Have to say… black market people are the only people really using it.. i really hope for it to be used by many people soon. But it needs stability for businessed accepting paiment with it. … and… it need businesses to accept payments with it to be stable.
    Ahahha vicious circle. U want to know how to make a transaction with it? Very easy, maybe u should download Multibit, it’s a “light” BTC wallet so u dont have to wait 3 days for it to synchonise with the blockchain, then u good to go, make a transfert from yout exchange to your wallet and have fun.


  5. Andrea

    Strong buys going on right now! Can anybody figure out which exchange is leading it? It looks to me like this time btcchina is not the one responsible for it. So maybe this could be a good sign.
    But I also remember how back in March after the crash there have been quite a few bounces, so this does not necessary means a reverse in the trend…

  6. krolls

    Enky bitcoin has been at the vwap and trying to break through it for hours now. Rsi indicators whichever I use say its overbought. Do you think it will or is it coming down again, and what do you take into consideration to determine that.

  7. krolls

    Btw not to miss great opportunities when sleeping you can use phone apps which sounds alarm when certain set price point is reached. I like “bitcoin 24/7” app

    1. Enky

      no thanks, i prefer to sleep:) it is not my main trading activity bitcoin, i trade other stuff and i need to sleep well.

  8. Andrew

    How do you create such a charts? Do you have any program that is drawing it on live for you, or it is your retrospective analisys of the bit coin market?

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