Short Term Update: hourly chart @bitstamp

chartYesterday I sold because the price hans’t be able to get through the  VWAP resistance at $630, then it started to fall and after a confirmed bearish RSI signal I closed my position.

During the night (for my timezone GMT +1) there was a bullish signal always from the RSI oscillator very interesting confirmed by the fact that the drop from $ 625 has found support on the 50% retracement of the first bullish swing ($ 382 -> $ 625).

Today it’s interesting to see if bitcoin will be able to exceed the volume moving average now placed at $614.

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41 thoughts on “Short Term Update: hourly chart @bitstamp

  1. Jacco van der Weerd

    If it does break the vwap @614 do you consider that strong enough a signal to open a new position ?

      1. Jacco van der Weerd

        … so if that retracement stays above the vwap, then you consider the vwap a support level and you have more confindence in the direction of the trend ?

      2. Jukka Santala

        Somewhat annoyingly, there’s been no RSI oversold on MtGox at least whole day. spending most day over monthly VWAP, and now looks like it’s fast breaking down resistance at 720 (Okay it just broke, always too slow…). Given the steep resistance after that, no point in buying in now, though I’m sure I’ll regret that 🙂

      3. Jukka Santala

        I should correct myself again, no oversold on 1h+ RSI, it looks like I should’ve taken the M15 signals today, but they can be thrown off by single trade so much I’ve practically given up on trying to use them alone after a few losses. I misjudged the resistance somewhat too, but it seems to currently have held at -0.5 monthly, with +1 daily VWAP just above it though. I guess there’s no way to tell which VWAP will hold other than look and see. You seem to give the half standard deviations special significance, so this means it could go below monthly VWAP if it starts to fall now, because it turned halfway? There was indeed start of a panic setting in after it first peaked.

    1. visitor

      hi, it crossed 614 usd border to 653 usd. so it will go up now?
      i am asking because of the buy trade i made at 740usd. do you think i have to sell it, or wait?

      1. final decision is up to you, i publish here my trading activity and my view of the market, please draw your conclusions by yourself. AS long as it stays above 615$ it’s bullish, resistance i think is around your entry point at 720 with a strong resistance at 800 for these days.

    2. Jukka Santala

      I need to read what I write before I post, below -1 monthly standard deviation ie. below daily VWAP, because it’s already below monthly VWAP and seems to be getting resistance from -0.5 VWAP. At least on MtGox that is, but it’s usually the same.
      Also some recommend adjusting the RSI thresholds depending on if it’s bull or bear market, I note you don’t seem to do that, but it does seem risky because it’s sometimes hard to tell and could change.

      1. it’s always best to use the rsi when market is flat and vwap too, otherwise you can’t follow every rsi signal automatically if market is very trendy.

    3. Jukka Santala

      That’s true, I’m still trying to get used to working with VWAP… I shorten the chart length because otherwise Sierra Charts takes too long to recalculate the chart on changing indicators, naturally I forget to increase it when it gets later in the month 🙂 The daily VWAP has problems of its own, for some reason aggressive price changes tend to happen right after midnight local time when the VWAP is indicating nothing. Only solution I’ve found is increasing the VWAP time period length, but today it takes 5 days to avoid reset on midnight. When the price follows them it’s hard to notice they’re off, but yeah my VWAP comments probably didn’t make sense in context.
      Of course it’s not hard to tell the resitance level on MtGox right now, since for a few hours now someone’s been selling 1000 BTC at 715 dollars 🙂

  2. Andrea Chiavazza

    Very nice to see this latest wave of buys, It has crossed the vwap and has gone well above the previous top.
    Even if it makes me feel sorry that you closed your trade too early.
    This will either bring us back to higher grounds of $700-$800, or it will settle and stabilize.
    Even if it will just settle without further big droppings, there is a chance that it might settle on a value around $500 and maybe stay around that value for the next few months, just as it settled at around $100 after the March rally.
    This would still be good news for the long term of bitcoin and will mean that $500 will be the starting point for the next rally. How can this not be goon?
    I don’t think there is much of a point keep moaning about the $1100 top that is gone, just as there was not much point moaning about the $260 top when it was gone. Even after the March crash there was quite a net gain in value (from before the rally to after it settle after the crash), just as I’m quite sure there will be a net gain this time too.
    Btcchina also seems to be still able to trade, and is rallying too. China central bank approach of trying to make it difficult to buy bitcoin might be backfiring as people might just end up thinking “buy now while you still can”. To crash bitcoin they should have made it hard to sell rather than hard to buy, and stop people CNY withdrawings rather than stop CNY deposits. Making something harder to buy just increases its value and might just end up causing people trading bitcoin in the streets.

  3. Looks good right now, but I’m expecting a large dip later in the afternoon. Too bad I’m still in limbo waiting for my coins, or I’d be looking to sell, since I bought at 520.

  4. Arturo

    About China… There’s another possibility : There is an important number of traders that have the possibility to buy
    elsewhere than in china, bitstamp for example I think they will beneficiate other markets on the mid termand make them bullish.

    1. Jukka Santala

      There is still a disturbing 150 dollar difference between the BTC China and MtGox, but I need to stop freaking about that since it seems to be permanent at least for the time being. It should be noted however that finance in China is very tightly controlled; according to the reports I’ve read they’re not allowed to buy or own dollars. I understand they may not be able to make purchases in foreign sites either, as that would make getting dollars fairly easy. This has been big part of Bitcoin’s and other virtual currencies appeal in China. It would be very hard to regulate Chinese buying Bitcoins in yuan, transfering the bitcoins to another exchange and making purchases there (It might still be illegal though, no idea), which is why the Chinese government hates it. And which is why I’ve been worried about the arbitrage potential. It would be helpful for major investors to get actual Chinese explanation of the situation, though.

      1. Jukka Santala

        Since MtGox still doesn’t allow me to actually withdraw my bitcoins or money, I’m kinda stuck wasting time with it, as I assume a lot are. I’m not certain why you say so though, as the liquidity on MtGox is much higher, and probably unintentionally they’re actually implementing 3 hour trade-stops when the price crashes, because their service does too 🙂 On that note your blog description still says it’s about MtGox, you might want to correct that or it might lead more people into makign one-way transaction with them.
        Still, the arbitrage opportunity remains even against Bitstamp or BTC-e, it’s just 100 dollars instead of 150 vs. MtGox. BTC China has been much closer to the rest before the latest news, suggesting the price difference will eventually even out one way or another. Some of my worries are documented above, but also said the difference has now stayed long enough I’m not expecting immediate crash; presumably there’s some reason maintaining the price difference.
        Here by the way is a recent article commenting on the regulating of yuan: http://www.businessinsider.com/china-bitcoin-crackdown-btc-china-2013-12 On the other hand China has been relaxing currency controls rapidly in recent years, and it’s now internationally traded, but I’ve really got no source on how free ordinary Chinese are to trade dollar or yuan.
        Chinese governments recent actions indicate it’s still a huge deal to them, though. The timing of this latest action is also curious; why did they not take this action with the first one? Judging from the wording of the Coindesk “anonymous leak” they probably believed BTC China would run out of yuan (they would know exactly how much there was, after all).
        People MIGHT have been buying and withdrawing cheap Bitcoins to sell them elsewhere later instead causing BTC China to have to buy them from other exchanges, explaining the recent rally as I suggested earlier. One thing is clear though, if this doesn’t shutdown Bitcoin in China I’m sure Chinese government won’t stop here. Which is kinda double-edged sword, as I’d like to have the uncertainty of China out of the equation.

  5. Ben

    Hi Enky,

    I’ve followed your posts closely for several months now—thank you for sharing your expertise! Because I use a Mac, I still haven’t been able to find a solution to monitor VWAP in precisely the way that you do. (I’ve tried to get Sierra to run using Wine but found it very difficult and time consuming.) Do you have any suggestions about where I may be able to find something comparable? Tradingview.com supports a basic VWAP, but it’s extremely limited. Perhaps one of your readers has built a script that improves the functionality?

    Thanks again,

    B

      1. Ben

        That’s the Wine install that I’ve tried. If all else fails I’ll set aside a few hours to see if I can get it up and running, but either way it’s a bit of a hack-job solution. Surely there’s a way to run these analytics in either a browser-based chart or a charting app that’s native to Mac, but I haven’t been able to find either.

    1. jay

      haha, thats funny and was wondering the same thing.
      Ive been lurking here for quite some time, A big thank you to you enky for your words and updates

  6. Derek

    Hello Guys, it’s not my fault if Enky sold… ahahha cmon… Bitcoin is Dangerous, If even Enky lost 8000 in 24h… u see.
    The point is i sold at 1150, and bough exactly at 500.
    Sometimes u want it to go up…. and sometimes u want it to go down 🙂

    Bitcoin is made to go up, and up up up it will go. There is no other way around.

    Good trading, for me it was the last one. Xtx are on cold wallet now 😀 i’m rich !

    1. Andrea Chiavazza

      In hindsight I obviously wish I had done the same, but I’m trying to be safe at the moment so I’m just holding my bitcoin bought at around $130, and if bitcoin will succeed I will probably be rich too anyway =)
      Now I’m wondering what’s your definition of “rich” =). How much do you have now in your cold wallet ? And what is Xtx ?

  7. Derek

    Btw… i’m just saying, but it doesnt look like the Nasdak anymore.. and it’s a VERY good sign. Btc never was a bubble, It was just a little Adjustment.Tamis… did i make u sell your BTC at the bottom? 😀 Jayy?? 😀

      1. Derek

        Yea Sorry Enky, for my poor English Expression u know .. eheh RUssians always drink too much VOdka.
        Anyway man, will u catch the train? I’m sure u took an opportunity at 649 yesterday with one unit :)Why didn’t u tell us on the blog?

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