Outlook for 2014

Bitcoin is exiting a short term correction and it is projected to rise through 2014 as clear potential for growth is still intact despite an earlier warning issued by the Chinese central bank has banned its financial institutions from dealing in the currency. I’m confident that bitcoin can become a solid solution payment for electronic commerce and be a serious competitor to other money transfer providers; bitcoin should also continue to emerge as a viable alternative for investors around the globe interested to invest in a new financial asset where to store wealth.

I think that for this year the $350 price level is an important support, just below recent low of $382, for two reasons:

  1. Using bitcoin historical volatility i’ve $350 as support computing the value with my estimation method based on time and price volatility;
  2. Long Term VWAP computed since January 2013 is at $355

The maximum yearly upside target for 2014 should be around the $3000-$3500 price zone, in accordance with my previous long term forecast of $3600. It is a good opportunity for who is interested to invest in the bitcoin to buy something now and to set an indicative stoploss below $350.
Personally, i’m not going to liquidate my long term reserve of bitcoins as long as the price stays above $350 this year and i want to see the price for weeks below that level before any liquidation takes place, a quick drop below it isn’t enough for obvious reasons.

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