Long Term Update: daily chart @bitstamp

chartWhat we are seeing is a decent rally that it is still emerging from a severe December drop; i expect to see some resistance around the first deviation line at $900, it’s the same deviation line that marked the top at $980 before the crash down to $382.

The RSI oscillator is overbought,  when this occurs, the Market almost never makes a final high. That means the Market will most likely go higher in the medium term so it could be a good idea, for anyone wanting to buy into the currency, to buy at market and place a stoploss below the current VWAP level ($733).

The net volume activity is positive, finally, after more then 30 days of bearish volumes; it’s a first confirmation that the BTC/USD is headed towards further highs.


16 thoughts on “Long Term Update: daily chart @bitstamp

  1. I think this increase is all due to the beginning-of-the-year optimism. China still has times higher trade volume and my friends there are telling me people there are just waiting to go full retard when the price gets right.

    1. Slavi Nakov

      Yep, I can relate to that hype.
      What price level are they mentioning? Maybe in the range of 1.000-1.200

  2. Mike

    There’s been an undeniable increase in UP volume lately – which was missing for some time. Another undeniable fact is that 2014 will bring in massive Wall Street money into Bitcoin in the form of myriad of funds and startups. It will be a ride of a lifetime…

  3. All I can say people is get ready for the boom cuz itsa comin have no worries. About 7-14 days we will see 1600 easy my prediction around 3600 within 30-60 days.. Maybe quicker there is no gauging this beautiful digital life changer.. Winkelvoss still in limbo with there fun while main trust fund is about to set new records.. Also dont forget overstock is about to change everthing.. I was having a discussion with some friends at a conference awhile back and we had said if any mainstream ecommerce takes grasp it will be payday for all who have been waiting patiently.. Not to mention all this publicity finally is going to rock this boat a new one! Also with my own time and funds in which I also run hosting and domains, vps servers, I purchased over 200+ domains related to btc.. in the process of getting them live as well as have over 100,000 stickers and flyers promoting bitcoin and the sites.. put it this way I have major street teams about to have a sticker with the B and the domains all over california.. There will be something bitcoin related on every corner.. People will swarm have faith 😉 I live in town over 250k+ and am well known so just promoting in this region of california alone will bring massive crowds to bitcoin. Give it a few weeks and those who have been patient shall prosper! Remember.. good things come to those who wait! As Mike stated above.. yes wait til wall street money is involved.. also other countries ebay platform is already accepting it on other countries.. Paypal is already on the ball.. everybody making there own fake ass currency is just promoting bitcoin and all PR is good PR! we will see 10k this year guaranteed.. who knows .. with the rate we are going we could see in the 40k+ range easy.. technology is viral friends.. 😉

  4. John

    Limitless, u spent month tellin us it would be 3600 for Xmans Ahaahahahhah
    u so funnny.
    I predict 8000 for december 2014

  5. YourHalo

    @Nikolay The “times higher” Chinese volume you see is most likely the 30-day volume total. They have fallen off in terms of daily volume for the last few wks now and the 30-day volume will reflect this soon. After the Chinese banks banned the use of BTC, there was a mass exodus However I do agree this slight and steady increase of USD/BTC price is due to the general optimism of the new-year and surge of the recent Oct/Nov ralley.

    Having followed this blog for almost two years now (many thank to you ENKY! Look forward to learning much more in the yrs to come having learned a lot already) and been watching BTC since the June(?) rally of 2011 where it hit a high of $32. I’m very excited for the next coming two years.

  6. Marc

    So are the regulations imposed by China that begins on the new year (Jan 31) not considered anymore? I’m expecting there to be at least a moderate dip by the end of the month…no?

    btw, great job on this website and your reporting. I’m not a serious investor but I’ve learned so much just reading your stuff and researching what I don’t know. If nothing else, Bitcoin is a great learning experience.

    1. Pretty much Mt.Gox and Bitstamp dragged the market up and China followed. It will be fun to watch the days around January 31 as still China trading volume is times higher than the rest together. Not all Chinese exchanges has cut off the fiat yet – that’s why BTCChina is no longer the biggest exchange.

      1. Marc

        Enky says ~$380 low, I would imagine losing a pretty big chunk of the market around Jan 31 would cause panic and drag it down around that time. Also, I’m not sure $380 is feasible anymore. It’s just too popular. These days I think in BTC and convert to USD. Escrow and transfer fees outside BTC are just outrageous and so much more difficult too.

      2. I think Bitcoin has great utility, but a lot of Bitcoin fans are not doing it a favor by taking the discussion to dangerous areas: anti-US, anti-Wall Street, ant-banks, e-commerce, which it is not actually very well-suited for it, and similar. Also, a lot of the fans sound like a broken record repeating the same well-memorized phrases over and over again. If you want mass adoption, you need to attune to the mass audience – opening commerce to new markets, improving efficiency to existing ones, etc. – not tanking the whole existing ecosystem as some portrait it as there are a lot of Americans who would stay away from Bitcoin as it’s a presented as a threat to status quo they feel well-accustomed to. Anti-US puppets like Max Keiser are not doing it a favor either (I won’t even mention the Winklevii). The guy got so excited last few days – I’m sure his portfolio depends on the high price as it’s much less skills to ride the uptrend than to day trade, but, anyway, being given an audience by the Russian Television channel does not do a favor to Bitcoin, which heavily depends on US adoption – let’s be honest here. Also, him not clearly disclosing his investments like in BitPay and other Bitcoin companies, is not doing him a favor and makes regulation of Bitcoin not sounding like a bad idea!

        What I don’t really get is how people with millions of dollars can put these amounts into questionable companies like Mt.Gox, Bitstamp, BTC-e. BTC-e, for example, does not have any contact info. From all it looks, it’s based in Bulgaria, but legally, it’s a Cyprus offshore company. Bitstamp is based in Slovenia although legally, I think, it’s a UK company. I recently read that CampBX, which legally is a US-based company in the state of Georgia, is operating from Europe. Mt.Gox has been notorious of the hardship of withdrawing fiat and has ongoing legal battles, but as I’ve said before, greed always beats reason! But just think about this hypothetical scenario: the 0.2% commission that BTC-e is making is nothing compared to them doing something similar to the Bitcoin marketplaces and fake a robbery.

      3. Marc

        I feel very much the same about the publicity issue as well as the exchanges. I stick to Coinbase because I lived just a mile from them until six months ago. I’ve had a very stable experience with CB and those I’ve referred have as well. Money goes in and out without issue. It would be nice if one would just emerge as a standard bank that is well trusted. BofA hasn’t thrown out the idea completely so maybe there’s something there. I would think ING direct would be most poised to develop a system for these things though given that they’re all online already.

        This whole economy is very fascinating and it’s very interesting to see what various governments think. Right now I feel that the US has the most to lose given the power of the dollar and size of economy. Had there been a more republican office (that has some technical concerns) I believe they would have tried to do something about it already. Or maybe they already are by printing the billions $ each month and destroying the debit trying to milk it for what they can. Extreme theories that are fun to think about…

        I wish someone knew what china was thinking. They’re the biggest threat to everything on the damn planet at this point. Oh and their recent ties/being friendly with Israel is double scary. I’m terrified of this opportunistic nation but I’m not sure they have figured out what to do about cryptocurrencies just yet.

        Right now, I think of USD and BTC on at least a similar scale as in both have value. If people would stop manipulating the market so much, I would prefer BTC. Unfortunately I think the exchanges almost promote manipulation because they profit so much from it. At a minimum, at least CB heavily regulates buy/sell compared to other exchanges.

        The other concern I have is that there is no wallet that allows for credit card like transaction recording. I know it’s supposed to be all anonymous and whatnot but at the end of my day, I still need to see who paid me what if I’m to use it for a legitimate business. Also, CB might be the most developed (and maybe safest) wallet, but it doesn’t provide the sophistication of Blockchain (mainly the network propagation and confirmation tracking).

        The worst part in all this is that the only people I have to talk about this with are those that I’ve turned on to the idea of Bitcoin and they look to me for information. It’s lonely and internet folk are inefficient and not discussion worthy for the most part. Again, thank you Enky very much. I greatly enjoy this smaller group.

  7. Mike

    Ever since the capitulation in the middle of December, the chart has been on a remarkably steady up trend. Since Jan first, the chart is picking up speed. Watching the tape has shown mostly buying volume leading the up trend. With no market makers in these exchanges, at least none formally, my guess is that larger institutional players are dictating this rise. To get more volume they will have to move up the price more significantly… I’ve been a trader for some time and bitcoin is without question one of the most interesting and likely life-changing phenomenon for many. Every so often the market generates these phenomenal waves. Not for the faint of heart but the rewards are there in ways few can imagine or take advantage of… good luck to all of u…

    1. Enky

      Yes, with higher prices it will be easier for large players to accumulate more bitcoins.
      I was expecting some resistance at 900$ but the volatility rised, it’s stronger then expected and at this point i think it is headed to 1050$ at least.
      when i can i’ll post an update.

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