Long Term Update

chartThe market in the last few days has done what I was expecting, it hesitated and dropped down to the support, the VWAP positioned at $ 765, here it slowly climbed back up to $ 900. Now we have two resistances, 920 dollars and 1067. 

I expect a little more resistance to advance this time but if it passes the psychological threshold of $ 1,000 it could also go beyond 1067$ (second deviation line of vwap) and it might try to attack recent all time top at 1163$.
The “net volume” oscillator  has been a bit  weak lately, at the end it can be considered neutral and is not yet seriously a danger to the current rise of prices.
For those who are invested for the long term I suggest to keep your position open for now. Stoploss should be positioned below long term VWAP now at 375$.

Advertisements

11 thoughts on “Long Term Update

  1. 3nrg

    Thanks again for sharing your insights Enky. If you could, I wanted to get your opinion on a concern of mine. It is fairly well documented that about 50 people own 1/3 of all bitcoins and under 1000 people own about 1/2. How do you think this lopsided distribution will affect the long term success? Is it fair to say that these “whales” effectively set and control the price and the rest of us are just along for the ride? I have been around the scene since 2010 and although I really enjoy doing technical data analysis the market manipulation within bitcoin is alarming. Do you think these fears are justified?

    Cheers!

    1. Enky

      if it is true, then those 50 can try to manipulate the market, after all few banks in the world manipulate the whole economy togheter with the FED and the BCE:)
      I’m not scared of this threat, it’s part of the game.

      1. 3nrg

        Thanks for the reply. I agree that it is part of the game, as that is what bitcoin is right now, a speculators game. But I have always hoped for legitimate bitcoin acceptance. And to me this is undeniably a major obstacle for bitcoins long term credibility. Banks control the world economy, but who controls bitcoin? Large holders include hacking groups, drug cartels, the FBI and a mysterious group known only as Satoshi. I find it surprising that many speculators are content to blindly trust these people without edifying themselves on the adverse implications of such a top-heavy distribution.

        For anyone interested the community tracts and updates bitcoin ownership here:
        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0

        Interesting chart here:
        http://bitcoinexaminer.org/wealth-distribution-part-i-fiat-currency-vs-btc-infographic/

        Anyone else care to comment? I know that bitcoin wasn’t created to distribute wealthy evenly. My concern is that such lopsided distribution will affect future mainstream acceptance.

    1. Enky

      bearish again, failure to go above $920 , support $785 but i smell a lower bottom.
      The bottom should be in the $630-$700 price zone if 785$ support fails.

    2. Jukka Santala

      On MtGox now it seems every time it tries to return to uptrend, someone dumps about million dollars worth of Bitcoins on the market. It kinda seems like Huobi is the one drawing the other exchanges down this time, though, with volume picking up. Some bad news there?
      On news today, Chinese C2C e-commerce site Taobao (Apparently joining Alibaba, it’s sister company who apparently made same decision last week) voluntarily banned sales of anything cryptocurrency related on the site, and Butterfly Labs which claims to have provided about half of Bitcoin networks hashing power announces having dealt with their backlog of orders and is ready to deliver more.
      Since the generation rate of new Bitcoins is controlled, the latter isn’t really bad news at all. Taobao is probably not very significant either, unless it’s a sign of things to come. Investing.com has the fall pinned down squarely on fears of another slapdown from Chinese government, although large retail companies voluntarily banning things would seem to reduce the likelihood.
      Still bit of a surprise, given most people seemed to be predicting a rise beyond 1000 dollars. As it stands now, at least on MtGox M15 has barely made everbought since the fall began about 48 hours ago while H1 is making valiant bounces from oversold but failing every time, making it a hard call on selling.
      Is there even a working BTC plugin for Sierra Charts at the moment, though?

  2. donald

    Thanks Enky!
    it is amazing how those big players have so much money that they can manipulate the market whenever they want to…
    in the middle of the drop someone started buying bitcoins….
    this market is so hard to predict.

  3. Jukka Santala

    The Bitcoin 50 don’t necessarily have money; by definition they mostly have the virtual kind. That’s not to say that by letting people buy out a fraction of their BTC above the 1000 dollar points they couldn’t have amassed enough money to swing the price quite a bit at lower end. Their situation doesn’t seem at all analogus to the the real world 0.01% though; Bitcoin is not government backed, nor unlimited, so its value depends largely on how widely it is adopted. Thus trying to amass as much of it as possible seems counter-productive. And if they were to try to sell a substantial fraction of their Bitcoins, it would crash the price due to oversupply.
    In what I believe to be a blow to the Bitcoin philosophy, most of the big players were surely already wealthy, as it would still have cost a lot in infrastructure or risky trades to amass that many Bitcoins, and presumably they have good financial advisors. It might be interesting to try to figure out their strategies; I suppose the obvious one is to put small fractions of their Bitcoins for sale near the apparent peaks, then use a fraction of the proceeds to prop the price up until it gets to another peak. The enhanced volatility will hurt its prospects as a currency, but I guess the lows will offer people a chance to buy in cheap, while selling at the highs will give them a chance to increase the amount in circulation.
    So are the top players co-operating? I’d think so, kinda like OPEC, though they have to find each other first and for sure there will be some renegades, and others using the relative anonymity to break the rules, for example selling out of turn. Will any of them actually want to buy more Bitcoins? I’m sure somebody has looked at the pattern, though I’d expect that to be risky proposal for them, given all the above. Thenagain, they had to get to the top somehow, and people seem to still invest big even in mining.

  4. Bob Smith

    I believe the market is totally manipulated by those that have the majority of the coin. I have seen it over and over again in the charts when the price was run up and then it was allowed to crash multiple times when there was no obvious signals that would indicate such activity to occur…

    1. Enky

      it’s possible because there is low liquidity in the various exchanges, with 40-50k btc you can manipulate this market

  5. Bob Smith

    However, I do agree with your point of view Enky, “This is how the game is played” and if you go into this with that consciousness, you can ride their coat tails and still do very well! I wish i had the analytical mind that you have, all this statistical analysis is a little beyond my grasp right now, but I’m learning more everyday. Thank you for your blog and your input, it’s very much appreciated!

Comments are closed.