Short Term Update: Bitcoin blocked in a trading range

chartThe BTC/USD at bitstamp exchange has been trying to bottom, but has been blocked in a trading range since 7 January ’14. There have been several attempts to move above the short term VWAP without success, every time my average halted the price advance; this means we have an accurate dynamic level that help us to understand when to enter this market: at the breakout of that level (now located at $828).

I think that if the weakness will continue in the coming days, we could see a low near $ 785, where there is the first negative deviation  line. RSI average is close to oversold, indicating that a bottom is near.

 

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13 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Bitcoin blocked in a trading range

  1. Mike

    We are testing the 785 area as i type this… no conviction in volume in this down move. Nice to see your ta again.

    1. thanks to apple and bitfinex issue we are diving but i think it’s an excuse to sell, at this point i think that the trading range has been broken to the downside.

      1. Mike

        There has been some good news for bitcoin lately – e.g. usps, waterhousecooper, cheapair, etc but they seemed have no effect on the price of bitcoin. In fact the only news that moved the price was the Shrem news. Bitcoin market appears to have entered a new phase in this sense. As u stated, it seems to be leaning toward the downside but i see no conviction in volume.

      2. Jukka Santala

        The negative news that lead to the current drop IMO seem to be twofold, 1) Increasing rumors about MtGox and difficulties of even withdrawing Bitcoins out anymore, causing people to consider fiat equally valid choice on MtGox, and 2) Paypal apparently starting to ban anyone using it for anything remotely Bitcoin related. And now there was the iPhone Blockchain thing too, but I’m not sure how much actual payment usage weighs at this moment…
        My AI algorithm didn’t anticipate this drop, but after taking the new move into account it started thinking now would be a perfect time to buy… (On MtGox at least) I’m not sure how much credence I would give it, especially given it’s just changed strategy. Right now it looks like MtGox just adjusting closer to the other exchanges, and that decline pressing the prices elsewhere, but the price-gap has generally reduced during bullish market.

      3. Jukka Santala

        The MtGox gap’s generally reduced during bearish market that is, I need edit button 🙂 I think it’s more a symptom than a cause though, so not much predictive power… just that it’ll increase when there’s upturn. Probably increases downwards pressure on other exchanges though if they’re still watching MtGox, because the dive there looks deeper than it is.

      1. Elie

        Mtgox touched down at 753 as the lowest drop. Right now were in bearish. I have a feeling we might hit new lows in the 500-600 range tonight and stabilize their. Also we might retest 250-350 briefly. If we did not have those withdrawal problems wit Mtgox and weird issues then we would have stayed stable at 800.
        What do u guys think will be the next low?

      2. at the averages, 200 days moving average and my long term vwap, around 400-450, when possible i’ll post a new update. thanks

  2. Bob

    I had the same thought as Jukka Santala. MtGox is adjusting to the other exchanges. With all the negativity aimed at them, what choice do they have? It’s either adjust and compete on the same playing field, or go home…I think Fri will be an upturn for all concerned.

  3. forget elliott, it’s just a coincidence that it worked this time.
    the only pattern that work it’s the ascending/descending triangle, it’s the most reliable.

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