Short Term Quick Update

chartThe recent sell off has brought the bitcoin into some notable short term support that I believe deserves attention. The top chart above shows the BTC/USD coming into support that is defined by the second deviation line of VWAP, computed using only last 7 days of data for a very short term indication.
The bottom pane of the chart shows the RSI in oversold territory but its average is higher because of the 5k bitcoins dump just happened at bitstamp.
It would appear to me that strong support in the near term, comes in around the $500-$520 price zone while resistance is above the VWAP, now at $590.

I don’t expect to see bullishness soon, i’m still looking for a long term bottom around $420.

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17 thoughts on “Short Term Quick Update

  1. george

    So short term we will be at $500-520 (forecasting a correction tonight to those levels). But I did not understand, for the long term you think we might bottom at $420 and (1) stabilize their OR… (2) bounce back up again?

    1. The 200 Day Moving Average often works as a major support level in a bull market, now is at 435$ and my vwap long term 428$, more or less the price zone is this, around $420.
      I expect a strong bounce back from 420$, instead of stabilizing at 420 i’d prefer to see a strong rebounce.

      1. Arthur

        Now that the CEO of Mt Gox resigned from Bitcoin Foundation, and that news alone brought the price down with $100… I’m starting to believe 400ish is possible when Mt Gox itself stops.

        Couldn’t help doing an extra sell at 640 this weekend, and buy back at 540 today to build up extra bitcoin position meanwhile. That Bitcoin Builder story had no real underlaying power, I thought, and in all humbleness I think that was correct.

        I changed my other order from 510 to 425, let’s see what happens next few days/weeks.

  2. Elie

    well enky looks like Mt Gox website has been taken off line and twitter account deleted. Trading on gox has stopped of course and website deleted entirely. I am not sure if he ran away with the money at this point since he did not even put an announcement, but this surely send Bitcoin retesting 250s.

    1. Frank

      Announcement will follow i presume, the source of mtgox.com says:

      I think it’s good news. Gox is dead and everyones ignoring all the bullish news by staring at these clowns. Just bought a few around 440. Let the saga continue …

  3. Mike

    What was likely to happen has happened. A blood-letting, it is. Let’s see how deep the rabbit hole goes this week.

    1. it will never collapse, usa will never default on its own debt. If for collapse you mean high inflation then it is very positive for btc. BTC inflation is going to drop to 2-3% from actual 10% in 7-8 yrs while real inflation is 15% despite the fed tell us the inflation is only 2-3%.

  4. Amit

    Hi Enky

    Do you think we will go under $400 in the next few days or are we going to stay in
    the $400-$640?

    Thanks,

    Amit

    1. The worst should be over by now, my long term support area worked so far. I’m waiting the official announcement from gox, i’m curious to see who bought the exchange.

  5. Rory

    What do you think is a fair price for a coin right now? Do you see upward or downward trend continuing with the future Gox announcements?

    1. fair price for bitcoin is at least $1300, i consider the BoA evaluation of bitcoin the minimum value that it should have. As long as we stay above my long term support (around $430 now) the long term direction is still up

      1. Elie

        were slowly heading upwards again, broke past 520 then 540 then 560 to hit 570. The real challenge would be to get pass 590. But should not be long IMO, next 1-48 hours we should have gotten pass 590. I am amazed at Bitcoin’s recovery, was rather quick which is a solid indicator of a healthy investment and solid e-currency, and resiliency against negative news

      2. How do you see exceeding $1,000 again anytime soon, when from consumer’s side, it’s bad news after bad news (theft, insolvency, malware stealing coins, etc.), and I don’t think prices can continue to raise when it’s the same people trying to play each other. They just announced that Mt.Gox is being subpoenaed, which is much worse than just them disappearing due to just gross incompetence. Also, regulation, which seem inevitable, is going to remove even more people from the market.

      3. i’m not saying it is going to $1300 tomorrow, but that is the minimum fair price of bitcoin. mtgox is not bitcoin, it will be forgotten and replaced by better exchanges.

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