Long Term Update: an improvement

chartSince my last update XBT/USD showed strength above $600 this means that the short term bearish trend is almost over but I need to see the upvolume/downvolume ratio computed on a 3 days chart becoming positive before opening a long term position.

Another positive aspect is that the ALMA moving average slope is now positive, an important bullish sign.  For an investor who wants to play very safe with their money i recommend to wait a confirmed bullish volume activity because, as I said before,  the up/down volume ratio is still negative; why? Well because it’s not enough a strong and quick spike up to $710 to erase weeks of weak market performance.

The intentions of the market to goes up must be confirmed with solid buying from investors but for who wants to try to anticipate the market i recommend to place a buy order in the $600-$620 price zone, in the short term this market should found support there, above the 3 days ALMA moving average now at $605.

31 thoughts on “Long Term Update: an improvement

  1. Arthur

    Hi guys who follow Enky, you think it’s fun to update each other what we are doing trading-wise? Based on this info I sold 5 coins for $670 of my 29.3 total since I had no cash. I put a limit order of 5.47 coins for $610 and I’ll check it out for a few days. So I’m not putting in 1/4 or 1/3 of my total, since I’m a little insecure if it will go that low… Curious what you guys are doing now!

    @Enky, when this works out, next move will be 0.1BTC donation. 🙂

    1. vanen

      well, it’s the first time i do this , i sold 1.52 bitcoin at 663 $ and placed an order at 610. let’s see how it turns out. if it goes well, i’m probably going to do this more often ! *fingers crossed*

    2. dude

      Better way would be to put many limit orders example in 605-625 range so your risk lowers, but win% not so much.

      1. vanen

        yeah , i’ll do that next time! anyway i’ve buyed it at 615 $ , so l won a little bit cash (almost 0.1 bitcoin) ^^ i’m happy and excited to do it again! when i’m going to win a little bit more, i’ll sure tip enky because his hints are amazing!

      2. Arthur

        Good tip indeed, dude. And congrats vanen, you did really well. I just noticed it didn’t reach 610 so I picked up my coins again on the way up. Still made 0.24 bitcoin profit on this trade, not bad. And Enky was spot on again! 🙂

      3. vanen

        wow, not bad! and thank you! it’s really a small gain because i don’t have a lot of bitcoin (i’m like, poor xD), but it feels like a victory, and it’s really fun acting like a trader haha ^^ i have a bitcoin widget on my android so i always have an eye about what is going on ,and when the price goes very low from a point, my phone begins to act like crazy so as soon as it falled to 615 knew this was the moment to buy again 🙂

        next step is to reach 2 bitcoins! may sound very little for you, but it would be a big WIN for me ^^

      4. Arthur

        I see it like this vanen, as it’s not about having lots of bitcoins or not. Your trade was way better than mine because you made 6.5% on your trade within a day, and I made 4.8% in a little over a day. So hats off to you! 😀

  2. zauberer

    I have been following Enky’s analyses for some time. Anyway, I opened a solid LTC position based on the news about BTC China starting to trade with LTC and strong rumors that Huobi is also in preparation for LTC.
    Brothers united indeed 🙂
    Apart from the above, the most important is that LTC developers and supporters are sticking to their currency and wishing it will succeed, which is the most important indicator for me.
    Offtopic – I wish that Enky also would write a column about LTC trading soon…in this or another blog.
    Thank you!

  3. george

    Hey Enkie, so far looks like were at 620 with really low volume to go upwards. Seems short term bearish to me now. I believe u need another day to analyze the down or up volume

    1. Enky

      it is reacting, market did a bottom inside my price zone $600-$620, i hope you bought there:)

      1. george

        Yes I bought once I saw few whales buying 1000BTC in the morning! Knew it was a sign. Thanks! Lets hope we head up to 800-900 in few weeks to get out of my short.

      1. Elie

        patient is a virtue, we started to rally were at 643 but should head hire especially after the news that broke out today that:

        New York financial regulators said they will immediately begin accepting applications to operate exchanges for Bitcoin and other digital currencies to help speed the development of rules for that market. Benjamin Lawsky, the superintendent of financial services, announced the move in a statement today, saying his office will propose a set of rules for virtual-currency firms by the end of the second quarter.

  4. B. Mums

    Have any new hunches, Enky? This lack of volume is really making me wonder if/when people will begin to trust Bitcoin again. On another note, if Amazon came out and accepted bitcoin, what do you think the value of spike to? Just curious.

    1. Enky

      Above $1200 for sure in the case Amazon accepts btc.
      I’ve nothing to say, market is flat above short term vwap, it just needs time to consolidate and move up further.

  5. A Coinfiend

    Enky, I’ve felt within the last week, that Bitcoin has finally “arrived”. It would seem to be confirmed by all of the positive current events, like the $20 million bet recently placed on Xapo’s coin storage service (something we can do ourselves, easily and cheaply, without any of the potential down-sides of trusting a third party). It seems the technicals agree with me; see this chart I made of Bitstamp on a 1-day interval: http://snag.gy/2ypEg.jpg

    Do you agree with me that we’re approaching a major break-out?

    1. Enky

      I hope for a major breakout but regarding that picture i don’t use trendlines too much as you know i prefer to use a dynamic level like the vwap and its standard deviation lines.

  6. Hi Enky,

    I lost all of my coins when Gox disappeared (shouldn’t have left them in there, I know) and I’ve been waiting to buy back in. I originally bought my coins at $216 so you can imagine it’s upsetting buying back in at $620 😦

    Would you say it’s a good time to purchase a big long term investment or should I wait? I can’t really tell what’s happening with the price at the moment.

    Thank you.

    1. Enky

      As a money management rule, next time don’t keep more then 10% of your coins on a single exchange or place and if you do it, do it for a limited amount of time.
      As long as the price stays above long term vwap (now 440) btc/usd remains bullish. Update coming soon

      1. Enky

        best compromise is to buy 50% now and 50% at a lower price, around $450 (now vwap is around $440)

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