Long Term Update: daily chart last 2 months @bitstamp

chartAfter failing to stay above my weekly moving average ($616) and VWAP computed using last 2 months ($611) the XBT/USD moved back to a short term downtrend with a lower top at $631 (12 March) after the previous one of $710 (3 March); supports are now at $534 and $457 as indicated in the attached chart.

RSI is very low, very oversold and at this point i’d like to see a decent reaction at least up to the VWAP at 610 dollars but i’m not so sure about it because of the overall bearish outlook on a weekly basis. I think that the market might break below the 541$ recent low because of a big descending triangle that it is forming on the weekly chart, and moves all the way down to the $440-$450 price zone where i think strong buyers will come back for a new buying opportunity.

 

Bearish Scenario
If this market decides to move well below my long term $440 support I think it will spend there the right amount of time required to scare weak investors, forcing them to sell their bitcoins to long term experienced investors.
Where? The final bottom should be probably above the April 2013 top at $266 but as long as XBT/USD stays above my $440 long term VWAP support this bearish scenario remains only an hypothesis.

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63 thoughts on “Long Term Update: daily chart last 2 months @bitstamp

  1. Arthur

    Thanks for the update again, Enky!

    For who is interested: Sold another 10 coins on $560 and added them to the Limit Order on $450. I have now 50% of my position in trading (sold 15, hopefully buy back 19.1 at $450) and 50% holding in BTC. First time I’m trying 50% in trading, so far my ‘rule’ was 1/3 max in trading.

    1. Arthur

      Sold another 5 of my 15 remaining bitcoins at exactly $590 last night to add the $ amount to the $450 limit order. This is going to be either a suicide trade, or a profit of ~5.6BTC… 🙂

    2. vanen

      well, i sold 1.60 bitcoin, 100 % of my meager wallet (bold move, hope it’ll be worth it) at 578 $, and placed a limit order at 460 $

      1. vanen

        haha i saw your new comment ^^ yeah, we are both in a dangerous position, hope it won’t turn out to be a suicide trade !! let’s cross our finger 🙂

      2. Arthur

        Hey vanen, good to see you again! Bold moves indeed! You sold 100% (should we call that ‘beyond suicide’ lol!), and I sold 2/3 of my BTC position, and we both go for a break through the 540 barrier, all the way down to the vwap range, to buy back. However, just a thought that crossed my mind today… I might change my mind about buying back when the price hits 550 again (if it ever does someday soon of course), and the price doesn’t want to move down anymore in short notice. In historical order I sold at 610, 558, 561 and 590, so at 550 I’m still making some profit. Anyway, fingers crossed, as you said. Good luck, vanen!

      3. vanen

        yeah, beyond suicide haha ^^ i had the same plan too, i always have an eye on the market so if i see any sign that it struggles to go lower than 550 well i’m buying it again.

        i always make 100% sells because i can’t make 1/3 or 2/3 sell with 1.6 bitcoin, it’s too much struggle for not much… i hope sometime in the future i’ll have enough bitcoins to do that though

      4. vanen

        haha i’m sure it’ll be okay for you! you seem very experienced with this ^^ i tried to sell at 600 but my i forgot i formatted my phone and couldn’t access my bitstamp account due to two authentification system… so i had to wait and sell it to 578 $ lol

        for me, selling only 1/3 of my bitcoin is too much pain in the *** , because of the fees my profit is almost non existent even though the fees are very small so i have to sell EVERYTHING each time lol, so i hope i will be lucky!

      5. Arthur

        @vanen: makes sense, selling 100% in your case, to find a balance between Bitstamp fees and trading profits. I had the same inner discussions, but decided that a price difference of at least $25 makes sense for trading. Someone here @Enky’s place said $40 makes even more sense, and I agree. And uhm, no, not experienced at all. Started trading only on February 10th. I closed 9 trades so far, and all were positive, luckily. The biggest blow was selling 5 coins at 634 and buying back 7.4 coins at 425 on the day Mt Gox collapsed. Cloud9 lol! Still waiting to jump firmly into the 30 coins though (after I started trading with 24.7 coins), because I promised Enky some donation when I do… Hopefully these 20 coins sold will bring in something.

      6. vanen

        holy moly how did you comeup whith so many bitcoins!!!! very good move indeed for the gox fall buy ! my bitcoins were in my paper wallet so i was always discouraged to try anything but then i had to move them out and use some, and that’s when i began to really watch closely the market and decided to play with it!

        i dream of just having 5 bitcoins lol but i’m gonna do everything i can to get there 😉 too bad that the fewer bitcoin you have, the more dangerous you have to act and the more time it needs to make a decent amount. my next goal is 2 bitcoin, and after that it’ll be 3 bitcoin, and if i succeed to to do that( it’ll be a huge win for me yeah,you can laugh at me with my future “maybe” 3 bitcoins xD), well i will definitely be trying to reach the 5 bitcoins goal lol so i’ll be checking on ya and on the site pretty often from now on ! let’s call ourselves bitcoin buddies lol

      7. Arthur

        You’ll get there vanen. I never thought I would become a trader, but since I’m watching this place I learned A LOT. You’ll get a feeling for where the market is moving, and Enky provides tons of tech background to support any decision. And the community here is very friendly too.

        How I got these coins? I was interested in Bitcoin since early 2013, but it was only in December that I decided to buy a bunch. I used some of my savings, which I earned with selling a share in an IT company where I work. Made a rather good profit on them, so I put away the larger part for bad times, or retirement, or backup for mortgage, whatever comes first. The smaller part is for supporting the rise of bitcoin, and hopefully making a few bucks down the road. When bitcoin is not a success (which it deserves to be by all means, don’t get me wrong) then I will not go bankrupt lol.

        I’ll try updating here every trade move, ok vanen? It’s fun being here! 🙂

      8. vanen

        well, i’ve rebuyed all my coin at 482 $ (bitstamp instant order can be pretty tricky, it used to show like 470 a few seconds ago … nevermind that’s a lesson lol) so it makes me go to 578 at 482 $ so i’m still winning haha ^^ i love this, it’s like a game lolit’s so rewarding (till you lose the game…. lol)

      9. Arthur

        I’ll be @&$#%! I set a limit order on 465 before I went to sleep (I’m located in NL), and just waking up to see it hit 466… And 468 again… And now back to 510-ish. Tsss… Changed my limit order to 470, let’s see if it’s going to test that low range again.

        @vanen: congrats, nice trade!

      10. vanen

        haha ^^ i think it’s going to get that low again, it looks a lot like last time. i won’t be playing in that range again and will wait for enky next statement (it’s tip time soon haha ^^) but you should definitely try!

      11. Arthur

        Hey vanen, bitcoin buddy! 🙂

        To be honest, I didn’t do anything so far. Sold 10 coins at 501 on top of the 10 coins I sold at ~560. I’m going to wait a bit longer to see if it hits the 300 range or even the (high) 200 range, as Elie speculates. When these China rumors are true anyway, and the Chinese exchanges start informing their members next week, we might see another huge sellout. If not I will hopefully pick my coins up again below 500 for some profit. It’s a bit of a calculated risk…

      12. vanen

        omg do you think those rumors are true?? enky said it was fake … and since the beginning i thought it was fake… i’m really on hold right now, i am really waiting for enky next statement because i really can’t afford taking risks…

      13. Arthur

        I don’t know if it’s true vanen, I’m prepared for the worst though. In December last year the price got cut by 2/3 when China was a major part of the bad news, and it looks like the same is happening again. Even if the news is not true, the fear alone is letting the price drift to 436 already today…

      14. vanen

        i knew i had to sell it at 510, but since i’m very new and have so few bitcoins i can’t male bold moves like these… damn me haha ^^ i’ll be waiting a little bit more, see how the market evolve and then i’ll make a decision. i definitely can’t miss the 250 range, it would be such a great trade…

      15. Arthur

        Yeah, meanwhile I noticed the price had hit almost 490 last night, which is a little positive signal I guess. However, it fall back to 438 so I bought some coins back at 440, securing 2.7XBT (-/- 0.1XBT to Enky = 2.6XBT) profit from my 560 sale. My best trade so far! On a sidenote, I’m pretty flabbergasted I did 13 trades since February 10, and all 13 were positive. My coins position went from 24.7 to 33.5 (+35%) currently. Now let’s see if the price goes below 425 (sell) or above 480 (buy in with the rest of my cash), that’s currently my strategy…

      1. Elie

        I agree Enky its always better to have a plan. Looks like were heading towards the 600s. I am buying in based on judgment of the volume of buyers vs sellers. Its a slow rally upwards but it might stabilizing at the pre-False-China Rumor of last week. I saw we might stay on 610-620s if were able to break the resistance. Else its gonna be a rapid way downwards.

  2. Arthur

    Hi Enky, 2 little questions, hope you have time to answer them someday.

    1. You use XBT as short for bitcoin, while so far I see BTC used also many times. Which one is (more) correct, XBT or BTC, and why? Just curious…

    2. The 2014 end of year prediction for bitcoin was $3,600 or $3,000 – $3,500 range, I remember. Anything can happen, I know, but according the tech analyses, this goal is still within reach for the next 9 months? Just curious again…

    Thanks Enky, highly appreciated, as always!

    1. Andrea Chiavazza

      Check out the standard for currency codes:
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_4217
      Basically they are made of 3 letters. Usually the first 2 letters are used for the country code. Examples:
      USD – US dollar
      AUD – Australian dollar
      EUR – Euro
      JPY – Japanese Yen
      Some currencies are not related to any particular country or government, most notably the precious metals, which have all the right to be considered currencies given that have been valuable for 5000 years or so. So these non-governmental currencies have “X” as their first letter: XAU, XAG, XPT, XPD (gold, silver, platinum, palladium).
      Bitcoin is also not related to any particular government, and on top of that “BT” is the country code of Bhutan, with BTN as its currency. So it would make a lot more sense for Bitcoin to use an “X” code. The wikipedia page above already mentions XBT as an unofficial currency code for Bitcoin. It could become an official one at some point in the future, when it will be more established and recognized.

      1. Arthur

        Hi Andrea, that explains it all. Thanks for the thorough answer. I’ll start using XBT only then, although it has no official status yet. But by using XBT as a code we can try making it official, right?

    2. Enky

      long term target is unchanged. Now it is time to accumulate bitcoins, i’m only waiting to see positive volume activity on an higher timeframe (3 days chart or weekly chart) before posting here on my blog a long term trade.

      1. Arthur

        Thanks Enky. Good luck with your trades. It’s fun to read how people are doing trade-wise.

    1. Frank

      Even when Gox is dead, it’s ghost is still haunting …

      O.T. Enky, just curious, but in your previous posts (February 10, 2014) you commented that you were ready to buy at 420. The price did a bottom of 400 at the 25th. What whas the reason you didn’t buy then? (assuming you didn’t)

      1. Enky

        I don’t publish all my trades, especially when volatility is high and thus also the risk involved (this blog is intended to be a guide for amateur investors ). I’ve bought something around $430 and still holding.
        Next public trade will happen when i’ll see again positive buying volume activity on a 3 days chart and it will be a long term trade.

    2. Arthur

      I don’t know if this should be considered bullish news… Let’s say it’s true, and all lost bitcoins on Mt Gox are recovered and returned to their rightful owners. Lots of them bitcoins have been traded just before the Mt Gox bankruptcy way below current market price, so there will be a huge selling pressure to cover up for costs made, and making a profit in general. Next to that, they recently claimed to have found 200,000 bitcoins already, and what did that to the price? It still went down… Just my 2 cents though.

      1. Andre

        I just started the “trading business” and I am by no means an expert. But having followed most of the statements and speculations I am with Arthur on ‘cost recovery’ for Mt Gox. So either way, due to real lost and therefore bad reputation or “re-kindle” of lost bitcoins there should be a a drop in BTC/USD heading our way. – at least that’s what I think ….

      2. Arthur

        Yeah, same thoughts here Andre. However, the price staying in the 570-590 range currently makes me wonder… not to say a little nervous. Not sure anymore if it will go down to the 450-500 range anytime soon, so I’ve changed my Limit Order from 450 to 535 for all coins I sold so far (20). Profits changed from 5.6 to 1.5 something, however, all trades will still be successful if it drops that low. Also something peculiar I noticed on the Bitstamp Order book: there is a big seller blocking the way through the $600 price barrier. Check it out in the ASKS section: Price $598.00, Amount [XBT] 1227.70340115, Value: $734,166.63. I wonder what that seller is thinking…

  3. Elie

    BREAKINGS RUMORS: bad rumors from China that all exchanges have to seize operation by April 15 and the banks dealing with them will need to freeze or close the banks accounts of those exchanges.

    According to Enky’s analysis, since we broke past the resistance 534 on Stamp and we hit a new low of 523 were officially in the BEARISH TREND he described. I set my buys at 450 and 460 respectively. However, I might retract those if the rumor gets confirmed in few days from now by the banks in China, bcse if it turns out true then we might see the worse bearish scenario of 200-250 the coin..

      1. Arthur

        From CoinDesk article:

        “Cracks started to appear in the story when China’s exchanges claimed they hadn’t heard the news and tried to verify it with the PBOC itself, finding no information.

        “We didn’t get any official announcement,” said Star Xu, CEO of major exchange OKCoin.

        “We haven’t seen any concrete evidence of any of this yet,” said Bobby Lee, CEO of BTCChina, saying the story seemed to be just a rumour, but that he’d stay tuned for any updates.”

      2. Elie

        if anyone looked at the CNN MONEY news today, so I am not surprised anymore with why they wanna halt banks accounts of crypto exchanges using bitcoin, China economy is definitely collapsing guys — its not a bitcoin war, its the entire hyperinflation of the Chinese economy. They know if it collapses everyone going to use Bitcoin and cryptos. Hence, thats why Bobby Lee was saying BTCCHINA could start taking CASH for bitcoin:

        (upvote for others to see and understand)

        NEWS: China bank hit by multi-day cash run

        Hundreds of people flocked to Jiangsu Sheyang Rural Commercial Bank in China this week to withdraw cash after rumors indicated the bank was nearing collapse.

        http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/27/news/economy/china-bank-run/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight

    1. Arthur

      Yeah, I anticipated in another way on that news today: canceled my 535 order, bought 10.9 coins at 550 (since it seemed to hold there, how wrong was that lol, still 0.9 coin profit though) and I’ll set a new buy order for the other 10 coins (sold around 560) when the dust settles…

      1. vanen

        i was about to make the same thung, but i keeped my trust because so many times i saw the market struggling to fall down and i had a feeling it would be like that so my limit order at 460 is still active ^^ hope i’ve done the right thing lol

      2. vanen

        oh, and it seems the rumor is totally fake. no exchange have received any documents stating this and the People’s Bank of China declined to comment on this news so this seems to be a hoax

      3. vanen

        i don’t see any official statement or any proof that this will happen in your link, only speculation and the same statements that made the rumor. like i said, it seems that all the “15” exchanges listed deny having received any documents, and china refuses to make any comment on this rumor so it really looks like a hoax. i wouldn’t mind a bitcoin drop since i am planning to buy, so i hope it may be true but it doesn’t seem so

      4. Elie

        u wanna be careful guys:

        Wall Street Journal: (paywalled: Google “Bitcoin Prices Plummet on Reports China to Close Exchange Bank Accounts “)

        Bobby Lee, Chief Executive Officer of BTC China, said in a telephone interview he had not seen the document **but is concerned the reports could be true**. Asked if it BTC China customers would no longer be able to deposit funds with his exchange directly through their bank accounts, he replied, “If the rumor turns out to be true, that’s what’s going to happen.”

        “At this time it’s too early for me to elaborate on what steps we will take,” Mr. Lee said. “We will take it one day at time.” He added that one option would be for customers to use cash to make direct deposits with BTC China.

        Mr. Lee said under PBOC practices, the ruling on bank accounts may never be publicly announced but could be enforced through direct channels with banks.

    1. Elie

      As we get closer to the China freeze/closing accounts deadline we will have a touched down at 250-300. Thats when I am aiming to buy again for now im out. Plus we have been in a descending bearish triangle since December 2013’s high and we havent gotten out of it yet.

      1. Arthur

        Makes sense, the 250-300 range as lowest point. Quite a few Chinese coins will hit the market when this rumor turns out to be true next week. I might split some bets up and bring them back in on the high 200 and low 300.

    2. Arthur

      I have 3 bets out on 410, 390 and 360. Might earn 7. something coins if it hits 360. As a Bitcoin enthusiast I hate it that the coin as part of the protocol has to go through this, as a bitcoin trader I’m keeping my fingers crossed…

  4. Hi Enky, as you expected 6 days ago, we have hit the 440-450 range. Do you still anticipate the return of strong buyers or do you think that the rumors in China may have stifled a buy-back until the dust settles one way or the other?

  5. Marc

    So everything I read is just speculation and rumors. Is this decline really just based on rumors? Kinda annoying if really so.

  6. Arthur

    “moves all the way down to the $440-$450 price zone where i think strong buyers will come back for a new buying opportunity.”

    With hitting 436 today and currently floating around 450, this is exactly where we are now… Spot on, Enky, amazing! The next week is going to be crucial: China rumors true or uncertainty still growing, further down. Or China clears the sky and other good news, we might go up again. My guts feelings say: further down.

    1. Elie

      the news for China is real.

      On Enkys analysis we did hit 440-450 and their is the volume of the BUYERS is terrible, and we have not bounced back upwards properly. This means we will be going for Enky’s worst scenario of bearish trend of 260.

      1. Arthur

        “and we have not bounced back upwards properly.”

        Exactly Elie, that’s why my guts feelings said further down. I was ready to buy in at 470-475 but it never reached there during the bounce. My calculator told me that at 275 my 20 coins sold will (almost) double up. Would be a major strike.

      2. Arthur

        There was a jump up to almost 490 last night (which I see as a little positive signal), so I changed my strategy accordingly: the cash I got from the 560 sale I used to buy back at 440 this morning, securing 2.7 coins profit. Now I can either sell at 425 when it goes down, or buy in with the rest of my cash just below 500 when it goes up.

        @Enky: just made a donation of 0.1XBT. Your suggested donation was 0.02XBT, but I think you deserved a little more! 🙂

  7. Hi Enky,

    Apologies for the newbie question, so exactly how do you make a profit in the last couple of days with such a crazy drop?

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