LongTerm Update: daily chart @bitstamp

chartThe market reacted from the recent low of $ 340 , because of this I think it is better to look more closely at the VWAP calculated with two months of data instead of a year, why? Well because long term VWAP is no longer functioning as a support , for this reason we will put it aside for a while.
After a prolonged decline , from 710 to 340 dollars, where the market has lost almost 50% , I believe that a rebound in prices is due and it should reach the mid-point of this bearish swing up to about $ 525 .
It is not a coincidence that at $ 535 there is the average VWAP now calculated with two months of data, consequently i think that up to $ 530 would be a normal rebound in a bearish market phase.
The RSI oscillator is recovering and when the market will reach the $ 530 price level probably the oscillator will be in the overbought zone , this could lead the market to stay lateral around the resistance to subsequently resume to fall.
In any case the volume has the highest priority above these analyses based on the VWAP and its price levels , as well as the RSI oscillator; if you begin to see a positive ratio between volumes made on uptick and downtick  then it will probably be the confirmation that a new uptrend has started, regardless of what price levels and oscillators tell us if buyers come back it is imperative to follow them.

To conclude, if i finally see a positive volume ratio (computed as usual on the 3 days chart) and a market moving above $530 i’ll open a long term trade, initially with half position and then moving to full position once i see on the 3 days chart my ALMA moving average turning positive. The stoploss will be tight because the final confirmation of a long term reversal there will be once the market will move above last top, located at $710.

87 thoughts on “LongTerm Update: daily chart @bitstamp

  1. Elie

    Thanks you Enky for the this great analysis. I am very happy to have used your analysis and my own (as i posted in your earlier post and replied to Arthur). In fact I bought in at 380 and never sold out in the past 2 days as I never believed we would breach again 380 after the PBOC news that they never banned bitcoin (April 11 announcement) and April 14-25 deadline being already priced in.

    I cant wait to go long for on 80% of my coins but I will follow your analysis and see the volume and the seller/buyers ratio before taking my final decision based on your analysis. So far I set some sells at 540 (hoping to see people overbuy initially), if I see a good volume of buyers I might cancel it and put my next sell at 730. Anyways we will see in the next 2 days how will the market react and if the professional traders and Wall Streeters (scheduled to jump in Q2 e.g. Second Market) will join in with more buys.

    1. Arthur

      You did well, Elie, congrats! Not only did I miss a nice 300 range trade, I even lost 1.6 coins on my 17th trade when I had to buy back at a higher price to not miss this jump up. My first trade with a loss… This ‘bottoming out’ was not my best trading period. However, and this may sound weird, but I’m somehow glad this happened. It was going too well almost, this will keep me from getting arrogant lol. Still I’m very pleased with the results so far: my XBT position has grown from 24.7 to 34.9 in 2 months. Thank you Enky, for being a really helpful guide. Tippin’ time again at 40 coins, promise.

      Let’s look forward to new opportunities, good luck to everyone here! 🙂

      1. vanen

        ohlalala hopefully we didn’t stick with our 3outlimit order haha ^^ yeah, first loss trade for me too, but it learned me a lot (like, wait a little bit more and vwap important things), maybe still not freaking-out proof yet but it’ll come haha !

        still, we’ll both do better next time!

      2. Elie

        no worries I made a LOT of mistakes since December, but read so much that I am learning the market. We have to make a run to the $800 for me to break even lol but I am doing the same thing as you trading in between highs and lows to make it up as we get there. I also learned not to trade EMOTIONALLY and on sentiments, thatch the worse to do (and that I did for several months until I corrected this) and a big majority of people are doing this with Cryptos. Trading is all technical and that’s why Enky’s strives in his post.

        You still did an outstanding job Arthur from your end and grew your portfolio immensely. Will tip Enky as soon as I break even and more gains are made. Anyways see u around 😉

    2. steffen

      @Enky, thanks for this analysis. Well understandable. 530 seams to be an important mark in the chart.

      @Elie: nicely done. Let’s see what the price will do in the 530ies region. Hopefully it will fall again (which is my guess considering the current and past volume activity) in order for us to grab some more coins before the final bull market for this year goes full throttle. It really is easier to trade a bear market if your aim is to multiply coins.

      1. Elie

        There might be a slight drop again to retest 440, if you have some fiat we could put your order there – so far the volume seems good but the buyers (mostly bears) are still not fully buying in although the missed the train unexpectedly but I think tonight chinese traders will be buying in, in MASS – I am actually expecting a rally tonight 8PM EST and after that till next morning (unless some negative new hits).

      2. steffen

        @Ellie, you seem to have a good nose…looks like the bitcoin train is making another test stop at the 440 support. I think it’s quite cool and useful if we share our own thoughts here…

    3. Arthur

      Oh wow, thanks Elie, for the nice words! And also thanks for sharing your stories. The guy behind the numbers, we get to know him lol! 🙂

      You know, for me trading started as a way to protect my investment. I bought 24.7 at 550 in December 2013, and I thought it was a good deal, knowing it had hit 1,100 or 1,200 a few weeks earlier. Then after I bought in, the price went up to around 900, then dwelled in the 800 range, further down into the 700’s, and in the 600’s I was like ‘hell no, I’m not going to let this happen!’. And halfway February, at exactly 650 I started my first trade… Of 17 so far.

      Emotions weren’t really an issue, patience was, but also not anymore. Currently it’s pure fun to trade. However, knowing what type of news is gossips, rumors and FUD, and what news is influencing the fundamentals, is always an issue. Next to this, currently I’m trying to get a feeling for possible scenarios beyond a few days or a week. Where is support, where is resistance and why? ELMA, EMA, long position, vwap, oscillator, oversold, stoploss, to go short, wtf?

      Learning, learning, learning…

      1. Elie

        Quoting Enky: if you begin to see a positive ratio between volumes made on uptick and downtick then it will probably be the confirmation that a new uptrend has started, regardless of what price levels and oscillators tell us if buyers come back it is imperative to follow them.

        Update: as I said in my post yesterday the rally indeed started late last night reaching a current high of 513. Viewing that the buyer and seller ratio is positive and a good volume from both sides on stamp showing that buyers are following the upward trend (lots of buyers on stamp at 4-6pm est compared to previous lack laster rallies – buyers ratio after that time started to drop a little though), I cancelled my sell at 530 and now aiming for 600. However I am still keeping an eye on the buyers to see how they will follow the upward trend and how long hence setting my sells accordingly. I also believe we’re breaking past the December bearish triangle by breaking 500 but we still need to pass through 530 at first then finally 730 to confirm the reversal of the bearish trend towards a bullish one as Enky pointed. So keep your eyes wide opened for the next few hours guys!

  2. Mike

    Your technical analysis of moving to the 2-month VWAP is brilliantly rational and practical. My hat’s off to you. Reading your posts is a pleasure and a great guide. I think you are on your way to a cult following and i am not indulging in a hyperbole.

  3. Najska

    Hi all,

    I wonder what your comments would be to this: http://s27.postimg.org/nfgtmmhnn/ltc.png

    I think the giant descending triangle already supposes such a bullish reaction, which will be the last one before the price go below $400 (the image is for LTC/USD and the support level seems to be $9). Do you think this is a valid analysis?

  4. Arthur

    How CoinDesk sums up what happened in China lately. Did we really have to go from around 700 to below 350 (over 50% cut) FOR F*CKING THIS SH*T? Unbelievable. Bitcoin is a crazy world! (and I’m lovin’ it lol)

    “There are three important points to remember in this series of events: firstly, despite some stating otherwise, China has not ‘banned bitcoin‘.

    Secondly, any leaked opinions so far referred to funding bitcoin exchange accounts through bank deposits. Bank accounts were never in danger of being frozen, and the ability to withdraw funds from exchanges to bank accounts was not in question. Chinese exchanges also work with multiple banks at a time, with the ability to transfer funds between them.

    Thirdly, and most significantly, all reports from China concerning banks and bitcoin exchanges so far are unofficial. To date there has been no ruling or policy statement by the People’s Bank of China on the matter, and any actions taken by Chinese banks were precautionary only.”

  5. Elie

    Update: the buyer volume on HUOBI has caught up and is enough to break the 530 VWAP of few months. I strongly believe we will break past that point and become as Enky said bullish on the short term. It is very possible we get another rally tonight while were sleeping, so far I am holding up to 600 or even if possible 700.

    1. Arthur

      Agree, I’m with you. Bitstamp 24 hr volume is still in the 30,000 that is saying a lot. Let’s enjoy this ride as long as it lasts.

      1. steffen

        Well…you should’ve sticked to your previous plan! 😉
        It’s getting back in its triangle…where it belongs. Down to 266 you little bastard… 🙂

      2. Elie

        patience steffen 🙂 we reached 545 which has still broken 530. The reason we dipped briefly was maybe due to Goxx announcement that it only had 200K of bitcoin worth to pay back and that Karpeles was paying for the legal proceedings with the bitcoins of the users of gox – technically nothing will be left for the gox traders. Without that news we were still heading upwards (too bad). The market has now started to recover again from that drop from 545 to 495. Note the bounce from the technical bearish break of 495 was strong (showing resistance) which means we will not see 266, and the 300s again anytime soon… unless China comes back again with a revenge (future likeliness possible) or some other bad news happen. If we cannot resume our uptrend in our next few hours or days too 600s, we might then stay bouncing between 495 and 545 for a while (which is a nice range for now). Anyways lets keep watch on the volume and buyers ratio 🙂 happy trading

      3. Arthur

        Uhm… It struggled a little, which is normal around that important level, I guess. It seems back on track again as we speak (around 520, but still struggling). 24 hr volume on Bitstamp is approaching the 40,000, which I consider a rather huge number, and pleading for a lasting upward trend. Hopefully you’re not 100% in cash now with all bets on $266, since I don’t see that happen anytime soon, steffen!

        On a sidenote, I just received an email from a Dutch professional risk-investor, which contained rather interesting Bitcoin information. Won’t copy it in full here, since it is in Dutch. The highlight of the email, for what it’s worth, is that he sends a graph made by a guy called Ivan Raszl. The graph is called “Correlation between number of bitcoin addresses in use and BTC price”. Here’s a link to the pic, which I uploaded on TinyPic.

        As can be noted, the XBT price went from rather overpriced in January to way underpriced currently. And based on this graph, with a steady growth of new bitcoin users in 2014, they predict that we are on the brink of a huge jump up, which might lead to a XBT price of between $2,500 and $8,000 later this year. We’ve heard these numbers before, however, I found it rather interesting to see the correlation between bitcoin users and bitcoin price. Again, for what it’s worth…

      4. Mike

        Thanks for sharing that graph. It is interesting to see the correlation. Envy was right on the money again with the resistance at 530 level.

    1. I am not daytrading. Charts, Candles and Volumes trading is too risky in my eyes. Bitcoin is hitting now on the upper traderrange of the downtrend channel. Whats next? As long Wall Street not entering the menage, bitcoin trading is not so difficult. As the difficulty stop to raise, so we see about 10 % in July, 5 % in october the price will stay stable between 550 and 440

  6. Brandon

    Elie, be careful with your judgement. You seem very confident were headed to 600+ but keep in mind, as Enky stated, the vwaps have a ~5% buffer range. I wouldnt be surprised to see 450 again or even 425 before we pop over 550 and stay there.

    I’ve been a bit quiet, just busy, and trading decently. I’m up to 6.2 from my previous low of 2.9 so I sure can’t complain! Though I did posess 7.2 when I was at my PC as price bottomed out to 350 then sold and it hit 350 but I waited and obviously it jever came back down. I had a feeling it was bottoming out at 350 but everybody here was so confident and moved their buy ins to 280-310, I decided not to hold…ugh lol. I should have listened to my gut instinct!

    I do enjoy reading what you guys have to say though.

    1. Arthur

      Haha, I know what you mean Brandon, you might have read before I missed a nice 300 range trade also, and lost almost all profits of two previous trades during the ‘bottoming out’ period. I’ve given the current situation a few thoughts, and I decided to hold on to my coins for the moment. Could have done a few nice trades again the last few days (sell at 515, buy back with profit on 480 yesterday, 545 – 495 today for example) but in case of doubt: don’t do anything. I have a stop loss in my head (I’m trading manually) on 350 for all my coins, and for the rest I’m waiting for a clear direction. Meanwhile reading into the ‘support zone’ and ‘resistance zone’ material, to get a feel for that. You know, I have to find my way again in a bullish period, since I only started trading when the trend was clearly bearish at 600-700 in February.

      By the way, do I understand it right that your coin position went from 7.2 to 2.9 and now back to 6.2? That’s a pretty wild ride (no idea what your fiat position is, though)! 🙂

      1. Brandon

        You’re correct Arthur… bought in at 320 back on November 8 with my brother in law fronting me the cash and we went in 50/50. Yes risky, but was SO worth it. Unfortunately for him, after my first round of bad trades, he split with only $300 profit, tho still profit. When he split I was down to 2.9, about mid to late January.

        I trade all-in though…much more risky, though can reap much more reward of course. I’m currently holding my 6.2 and have no idea what signs to look for in a market that coule possibly swing either way. I kept telling myself to sell at 520-530 and to buy back in at 490 as you stated, but it seems theres a lot of support at 500….the question being is that support at 500 authentic or bots being bullish to offload their coins?

        So much good news and VC pouring in, yet I feel the excitement is no longer there for a lot of people or people lose interest, or just the bad press constantly making people wary. I sure know all my family I talk to read into all the BS and have ZERO idea of what’s actually going on with VC firms and business accepting bitcoin…. just my 2 cents.

      2. Arthur

        Wow, what a story Brandon. I think in this period of time the people like your brother in law, people with less patience to learn and unhappy with the short term results, they are leaving. Bitcoin is now shaking off the bad brothers like a dog entering solid grounds after a swim. Enter a new breed of people with serious interest in the protocol, its coin and the almost endless possibilities. However, these new people need a new start, from bottom up. It takes a cheap coin, priced on a level that most short term wannabe millionaires have left the Bitcoin arena with their tail between their legs.

        My guts feelings say we are not there yet, and it will take another low to get there. It fits perfectly in the January – April price graph, combined with what’s going on worldwide. No real killer apps yet, Mt Gox finally gone but still we feel the aftermath, extreme overreaction on China buzz, slowing down of new users coming in. The fundament is perfect, but the new people need proof, something to hold, no more BS. My 2 cents, lol.

      3. B. Mums

        Also, like you, I started trading heavily because I had a number of dollars in my head that I wouldn’t let myself fall below. Likewise, when the bitcoin price rises, I try to keep the number of bitcoins I own.

  7. steffen

    @Elie: Well, do you really think the exact point in time of this news publication was random? I don’t think so. Someone perhaps wants BTC to go back down, and if so we should go with it. Including the 5% margin Brandon reminded us about, the downtrend could still be in. To be exact, 15 out of 530 is only 2.8%…and the counter reaction was quite strong with the rebounce back up going until the 50% retracement line which would be a normal technical reaction. As Enky foresaw, the market’s going horizontal below the resistance now. Also, it is not sufficient to look at pure volumes (“40k a day”), the uptick/downtick ratio is of interest here. Does anybody know where this indicator can be seen freely without having to invest in Sierra Chart?

    1. Arthur

      “Also, it is not sufficient to look at pure volumes (“40k a day”), the uptick/downtick ratio is of interest here.”

      Good point. That’s why I’m an amateur, still, lol.

    2. Najska

      Can you make it clear what indicator do you exactly mean when you talk about uptick downtick volume ratio? Do you use base volume or quote volume? Besides, do you compare closing prices or typical prices or something else?

      There is this MFI (money flow index) which seems to be closer to what you say. Stock Charts has a good interpretation of it. And you can find it here http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gMFIzv. However, bitcoincharts.com doesn’t allow you to change the lag.

  8. B. Mums

    There must be a time limit or something to reply to messages? I dont understand why I can’t reply to some. Anyway, sorry for the dual alias, I logged in using my phone earlier and didn’t remember what I was using.

    “My guts feelings say we are not there yet, and it will take another low to get there. It fits perfectly in the January – April price graph, combined with what’s going on worldwide. No real killer apps yet, Mt Gox finally gone but still we feel the aftermath, extreme overreaction on China buzz, slowing down of new users coming in. The fundament is perfect, but the new people need proof, something to hold, no more BS. My 2 cents, lol.”

    That’s really what I’m feeling too. Too much resistance at 530. I actually just sold at 525 not too long ago, there was a 500 coin wall I saw got eaten up, and I immediately finished that wall off myself. I had a feeling we were topping out for the moment.

    I think this next 24 hours will be a big sign of things to come short-term. I think we’ll either break 540 by a healthy margin, or drop down to 490 once again, maybe lower if people lose confidence in the pumps that keep dropping off.

    1. Arthur

      LOL, beware, I’m by no means an expert, but spitting my thoughts. However, I put my money where my mouth is and sold at 530. According the graphs* and knowing that at 300 is strong support again, I tend to putting them back in at the low 300’s (310-325).

      *I noticed an almost classic pattern since December drop to 380. Recovery to 900, drop to 400. Recovery to 700, drop to 340. Now recovery to 500, drop to 300-ish? This, combined with some human factor and current market status, makes me feel rather secure about this, what I expect to be the ‘final bottoming out’. The price might hover in the 400-500 range for a while after that, before it will start picking up genuine bullish momentum again in May/June.

      1. Brandon

        Nice move…unfortunately for me I’m on the east coast US so I keep waking up to a lonv 4-5 hour dump period. At the same time I do worry iff I sold before bed it could break thru 540 and I’d miss out on a LOT. Doesnt make it easy trading right now for me.

      2. Arthur

        @Brandon: I know exactly what you mean. I’m located in The Netherlands, but same issues. During working hours I give a lot of IT trainings and workshops, so sometimes there is hardly a moment to check my phone. And I never have a restless night about bitcoin, however, last night I woke up to do something necessary in the bathroom (what women used to call ‘powder my nose’), and I couldn’t fall asleep easily after that… Since I realized it’s a risky move I’m in currently. Didn’t check the price development though, lol.

    2. Arthur

      Let me add I sold some more at 510, and with hitting the low 480’s just now it seems like a good choice. It gives some power to my reasoning, I guess. Still a little doubtful about the level where to pick it up again, since everything between 250 and 350 makes sense… For the moment my bets are still on 310-325 range though (strong support, safety first). And extremely good news might spoil the fun anytime.

      1. Elie

        Hello Arthur and all, I sold few bitcoins at 500 few minutes ago but not all, i woke up as usual in the middle of the “heat”. This time it was the dump. However the reason 530 did not not hold and we got passed few hours ago is mainly due to the fact that BAD NEWS from China came out just around an hour ago saying that BTCCHINA and OKCoin have received official bank letters from the Construction Bank of China to cease using their accounts etc.

        Not sure if we are going lower than 490 (or even 440) in the next few hours. The reason is we KNOW the PBOC issued a statement on April 11 and said that they dont have the jurisdiction to ban bitcoin and they WONT. It is still treated as a collectible item according to the announcement. However they are still making it difficult for Chinese to buy it through banks or banks deposit. Finally the banks were still going to go ahead and freeze or close the bank accounts of exchanges by April 15th by issuing them notices. so nothing new at all we endured this for 2-3 weeks and went to the 300s bcse of this and now some late notices from banks are arriving.

        Edit: that’s why the sellers on HUOBI did not follow under 490. We might see a slight recovery to the 500s again. But its again too early to tell. we will know soon. My eyes are gonna probably be glued to the screen the entire day today. Also I still do not think we will go below 440. In my opinion we will not see the 300s because of this news but I might be wrong : ) we will know in the next 24 hours

      2. Arthur

        “Also I still do not think we will go below 440. In my opinion we will not see the 300s because of this news but I might be wrong : ) we will know in the next 24 hours.” -Elie

        Most probably not because of this news alone no, and fully agree: we won’t see the 300’s today indeed. Would be quite a move. However, between every top of the jump and bottom of the drop I just described in what I called a ‘classic pattern’ between December 2013 and April 2014 were several weeks of time, with several in-between highs and lows. You know, I’m trying to see the big(ger) picture here… And in this big(ger) picture, we might see the low 300’s again in a few weeks, for, hopefully, the final bottoming out.

      3. Weioo

        @Elie, although I’m wary, I agree. I don’t think we’ll see sub-400 anytime soon. I do wonder if we’re at the top of a pleatuea that will eventually drop down to steady 450’s though, just like after the Gox fiasco/plunge.

      4. vanen

        oh, i thought about selling at 530, but i had my last ( and only ) loss trade in mind so i didn’t do anything…maybe i should sell at next 530 pric , what do you think arthur

      5. Elie

        Their is a slight possibility that we retest the previous lows of 460 or 440 tonight before handing up upwards again. If we do stay at the current range of 490-+ and 530, we might end up staying in there until the bears just accept the fact that China has been already priced in only then we can break upwards. Lets face it all the Chinese weak hands investors have already EXITED in Dec 2013 and progressively as the news kept coming out and rumors up until April 15, it is safe to say that China is pretty much over on the fact of the Bitcoin-Ban scare. It is finished, actually bitcoin has been resilient on today’s bad news of some banks giving notice to clear the banks accounts of some exchanges before a certain date before they get closed/frozen. Resilient because it did’nt budged as it use to anymore (no drop of 100 or 200$ and more)

        Personally i dont have time for this cycle, so I stayed in with 6 btc and just sold 2 in the earlier morning placing a buy at 460 and 440. will see what happens tomorrow morning. Actually im off for easter weekend on vacation and coming back in 2 weeks. will not be able to trade so I will stay in BTC without looking so much at the market.
        I think it is too risky currently to stay fully in fiat, hope most of you did not do that!

      6. Arthur

        @vanen, yeah well, I’m not a good advisor since I feel I’m still an amateur. Just telling what I’m doing, so people can learn from it. I don’t know if 530 returns, really. I have a rather clear view why the low 300’s are going to happen in a few weeks, which I tried to explain here and there. So I sold above 500 at the moment I felt ‘580? Ain’t gonna happen now!’, then I looked for a future support zone. Not for today or tomorrow, but 2-4 weeks or the likes. That’s 300. Is it possible? Sure. Do I think it will happen? Yes, absolutely, I think the market needs another low to shake off the bad actors. But will it happen? No idea… Now you can maybe find your way in this. Many other people here give lots of info, you can pick what you like and follow. Or not and go your own way…

        @Elie and @everybody else, happy Easter holidays!

      7. Arthur

        @vanen: I do have a good advice, in fact. In case of doubt, don’t do anything, and keep your coins. Meanwhile holding on to a stop loss level for selling your coins in case the price spikes down.

        I used that rule last few days in the 400-548 jump, and clearly and willingly missed a few pretty nice day trades. I could have grabbed probably at least 2 coins, however, I decided to wait for what would happen around 525-535. So I checked if it would break that resistance, and only then I would make a decision for a potential next trade towards a new, or old, support zone. And I went from ‘we’re jumping further!’ to ‘nope, it’s not going to happen!’ in a few hours. The ‘nope!’ came in much stronger, and then I quickly overthought the options. Hence leading to my 2 sales, and current view on things. Also, currently I’m changing from a 1day-3day trader to a 1week-1month trader, because it suits me better. But I guess you noticed that already… Anyway, happy trading! 🙂

  9. B. Mums

    I’m thinking we may be headed for another dip here, maybe to 400-420? I’m judging this off the slow down of volume. For the last 5 days, numbers are 33k green, 30k green, 30k green, 20k red, 10k red (today).

    This is kinda a stupid question and I feel I should know this already…But what exactly makes a bar green or red? I’ve always assumed a red volume bar meant more coins sold than bought in that period, or the price dropped from the previous bar. I’m not sure which, or am I like WAY off? lol.

    1. Arthur

      I don’t know, I think your first guess makes sense.

      There’s another thing I found out last night which I’m happy to share. Previously I said we’re heading for a new low around 300, and I still firmly believe that. Just go to the homepage of Bitstamp, set the graph to 3 months, take a ruler and move it from the tops (resistance prices) to the lows (support prices) and see how much sense this makes. Pure techs. Combine this with a feel for what the market is doing, and there you go, it looks almost unavoidable that the low 300’s are going to be hit.

      Then I made a calculation between doing 3 daytrades or doing 1 mid-term trade (2-3 weeks) between the top and the low. I took a simple example with somebody owning 10 coins, trading on a downslide from 500 to 400. Inbetween the price halts at 460, goes back to 480, and drops further to 430. It halts there, goes up to 440 before it drops to 400.

      Now this person is doing 1 mid-term trade and pays 1% transaction fees. Sell at 500*10=5000-1%=4950. With this money he buys in at 400 and grabs 4950/400-1%=12.25 coins. Good trade, right?

      Now instead this person is doing 3 trades. Gets 4950 in cash, grabs coins at 462, sells everything at 478 (it’s hard to get the ultimate prices, but he really tried!), then buys coins at 431. But oops, he missed the spike up and sells all coins obtained so far at 429 to use the cash to buy coins at 400. Looks like a pretty good track record which should end up with more coins than the mid-term trader, right? Wrong. The second way of trading finalizes with 12.12 coins.

      So for me it makes sense to switch from day trading to mid-term trading (not sure if this is the right word, but I hope you guys know what I mean).

      1. Arthur

        Let me add to this, that another calculation I made this morning with higher spikes and lower transaction fees (currently I’m on 0.24% on Bitstamp, that makes a huge difference), day trading is more profitable. Also for securing some coins in case the calculated lows are not reached, day trading works better. Probably I should find a mixture of these several types of trading. Currently I’m trading rather wildly with huge chumps, up to 2/3 of my coins. And I remember a tip from someone saying ‘ALWAYS have some cash ready for a bargain’. However, I think he meant that for a situation when one is having a mixture of several stocks (which I don’t).

  10. steffen

    @Arthur: The pattern you “discovered” is the very bearish falling triangle formation, Enky already wrote about. Since the 530 break was not confirmed so far, we are still on the bearish downslope. Next bottom possibly 300 or 266 instead of 350. However, just like Enky wrote, in case the 530 is broken again with good volume ratio, go with the buyers. Patience. 🙂

    1. Arthur

      Absolutely. It’s still struggling in the 470-500 range, so it’s not really clear yet if it will happen (reaching a new low). That’s why I said that extremely good news might spoil the fun. And indeed, Enky mentioned this weeks ago already, so all credits go where they belong. I only needed to put all that tech info I’m currently learning into place, and now it finally dropped lol.

      1. Arthur

        Yeah, I noticed that too. When it came back to 500 after refusing to go below 470 I decided to grab my coins back so I won’t be surprised overnight by a further jump up. Added 0.5 coin to my XBT position so I’m happy. 🙂

  11. Elie

    Wanted to post earlier but been away in vacation. But yeh were definitely heading upwards after we failed to go lower than 480-490 for few days. The 440 retest was clearly not going to form after seeing the volume of buyers on Huobi buying in in the past few days. That’s why I never believe we will see the 266 and 300s again soon. Plus we broke past the December 2013 bearish downtrend, finally!!!
    Seeing that I bought with my 20per fiat that I sold out earlier in case we retested lower. Fully in and hoping that my careful bullish bet materializes in the next few days 😉 see reference link on the TA website: https://www.tradingview.com/v/OhaH6R8e/

    Huobi should rally soon and go to the 600s if not more. Maybe the start of the next cycle up and the retest of previous highs and eventually in few months the 1000s? That would be great

    1. Arthur

      Glad you said ‘hi’ to a few new Satoshi brothers and sisters too, Elie. 🙂

      To be honest, we’re only touching the lower end of the 2 months vwap zone with low volumes, so it is not a strong signal yet. On Bitstamp it hit low 470 twice in the meantime, and BTC-e was even lower if I remember well. At 580+ and staying there firmly, only then I’m convinced I can forget the 300 range for a while.

      1. Elie

        Hey Arthur,
        The reason why BTC-e is trading lower is because from what I read on forums bitcoin outlook their is very bearish! also the volume of buyers on BTC-e is lower than bitstamp and huobi.

        For sure we still don’t have a strong buy signal yet but their are more positive reasons to buy in then out at this point! ( RSI slightly positive, china is recovering faster – more bullish since PBOC announcement that bitcoin cannot be banned – market gained 10per since last Friday, second market and other trading firms have or are joining in bitcoin, etc)

        Some interesting bubble/rally watch compared to previous years rally of bitcoin: http://m.imgur.com/a/oLkpW (shows clearly our next stop is 600 and possible low somewhere near 430-440)

        For sure the buy signal to watch for is breaking past 550 and the retest will be at 600. I actually I put my current sell at 595 and 605 as I believe we won’t be able to break past that resistance right away without a positive non-technical (news) factor, bitcoiners need something to feed on (to increase the demand of bitcoin)

      2. Arthur

        Yeah, all true I guess, Elie. However, there is this thingy behind all this, I called it the ‘human factor’. There is still this group of people that has to leave the bitcoin community, so bitcoin business can make a next step. In the trading world they are the weak investors. This group saw 1,200, then 380, then 900, then 400, then 700, then 340, and now 500 again. They’ll be like ‘wtf, we’ve had it all, everything is priced in, and still no return to 1,200+? F*ck it, I’m outta here.’. These people still need to dump their coins. I think only extremely good news can avoid this short term.

      3. Arthur, If you are here to be millionaire in 2 years, you are the wrong business.
        the only reason bitcoin got to be $1200 is because the chinease
        found a way to get their money out of china, it is true bitcoin right now is in
        better position and getting investments from vc’s and new start ups are opening
        but the big problem of bitcoins is the volcety it has, i wouldn’t go to atm and buy
        bitcoins for shopping online if i think tomorrow my bitcoins will be worth %20
        less (or more but that is not the issue), and if people don’t start using it in the next 2 years
        bitcoin will be out of business, currently the price of bitcoins is only valued by the investors
        since there is not real big adaptionof the coin and till that’s happen no body is going to be millionaire

      4. Arthur

        Hi Donald, I can agree with most you said. It’s a dilemma that has to be solved over time. I read somewhere about bitcoin: It’s only worth something when it’s worth a lot. I found this very truthful, but at the same time it works contraproductive for a lot of people. I mean, most products become cheaper after mass adoption, bitcoin doesn’t. And on it’s road to mass adoption, bitcoins price will fluctuate heavily… Not for the weak at heart, that’s for sure!

    2. Najska

      Hi all,

      I think it’s still early to announce the breakout of the triangle, since when the breakout volume is considered, we see that “as the pattern develops, volume contracts” still holds. I’d expect a greater breakout volume. However, this last happening should be signal that there’s not so much time left. All in all, I’m all in fiat, waiting for the last dump.

  12. B. Mums

    The stagnation….the suspense….I die a little bit inside each hour there isn’t some spike, wondering if my holding of my coins was a good idea or if I missed out. I last bought at 505, when it came down from 535 on BTCE. It’s starting to hurt seeing the prices fall ever so slowly. But I swear if I were to go sell, $40 spike up!!!! I guarantee it.

    1. Fabrizio calonelli

      Sell man. Time to sell. Accept your loss. It’s going str8 down to 360. Next step 140

    2. B. Mums

      Now that I think about it and by the looks of it, it seems more and more like we’re continuing the downward trend. Unless we see a spike up above $500 in the next day, I think Arthur’s suspicions are correct and we may hit 300ish.

      Like Enky said in his OP here… “the market will reach the $ 530 price level probably the oscillator will be in the overbought zone , this could lead the market to stay lateral around the resistance to subsequently resume to fall.”

      1. Fabrizio

        U just published the comment of a guy who said exactly the same thing than me in less accurate. Are u against democratie u cunt ?
        How much money did U lose on this small dick cnt?

      2. Arthur

        Hi Enky, since 2007 I run a forum for an American altrock band together with an American guy, and we don’t even bother to think twice about these type of situations. Immediate delete and ban on IP address, user nick and email address, followed by a cleansweep of all his hate posts. Just saying. With respect, Arthur

    3. Arthur

      Yeah, it’s rather clear to me too. Enky tweeted that strong support is now on 380, so I have placed my bets on 410, 425 and 445.

      1. Weioo

        Wait, holy crap, Enky tweets too!? I’m missing out, lol. Thanks for that, Arthur! I did sell last night at 475 and no spike up…amazing. 😛

        Enky – I’m not sure because his english sucks, but I think Fabrizio was offended at me for some stupid reason…I guess because I quoted your OP? lol. Regardless, that kind of attitude deserves a ban hammer IMO!

      2. Arthur

        Every day a few $ is nibbled away… My guts feelings say in the 450-470 range we might see a major dump to low 400.

      3. Arthur

        Funny. I expected a $50 plunge, but not now. More like next week when the price had slowly dwelled down to the 450-470 range. For the moment I have no clue where the bad news comes from, or who or what initiated this sell off. Maybe a pump and dump group manipulation? It’s a weird coincidence that two days ago a documentary called ‘The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin’ premiered at the Tribeca Film Festival…

        Anyway, at the next $50 plunge I’m hoping to pick up my coins again, for the moment I choose to wait for things to come. I might reset one of my smallest bets to around 390, just a little strategy move within the trading range I’m buying again. And I’m getting really curious now if we will really see the low 300’s in 2-3 weeks time…

      4. Arthur

        Thanks BK, interesting read (crappy English language though, lol!). And who had thought, China again!

        This part is very interesting, this will mean the Chinese exchanges will definately start looking for a place abroad to continue their business, or discontinue their operations:

        “In the interviews emphasized the central bank, cash function must also be stopped.”

        Maybe a light further plunge is to be expected today when CoinDesk and the likes report this news also, I don’t know. Just guessing.

      5. Arthur

        Good guess lol! From 470 to 440 after CoinDesk wrote about it. Let me try another guess: low 400 after the Chinese exchanges start reacting in the upcoming days. They will try to calm everybody down, but they also have to admit that they are now seriously feeling the pressure.

  13. Market is waiting to spike up. i am not daytrader, its a loss of time, when i trade intraday, but thats now the way for a triangle and breaking up. but for now its not clear to do anything, so go to the sideline. being invested is always taking the risk.

  14. steffen

    That’s quite interesting. BTC did just before break it’s short term descending triangle leaving it through the top, the news came out quite right in order to make it fall and go through the bottom. Taking into account the current news is unsubstantiated, my strong guess is that someone wants BTC to follow the downtrend. Lately, all the bad news came out exactly at important turning points. What do you think, guys?

    1. Arthur

      I don’t know… I’m not so much into conspiracy theories. I guess the bitcoin trading market is relatively small and can be manipulated, but what type of person would benefit?

  15. Arthur

    Update for who is interested in what I’m doing investment-wise: I mentioned a while back that I would be interested in obtaining Ether coins (from Ethereum) when they would become available. When I learned about the MaidSafe project (Safecoins) I decided to invest 2 XBT in that also, to bring a little more spread in my cryptocurrency portfolio. I’m trying to pick the few quality coins however, since there are like 230-240 coins at the moment!

    Anyway, on the first day of the MaidSafe presale three days ago, I send them my hard-earned XBT. The presale, which was supposed to last 1 month, was closed on the second day already, so I was unsure if my little contribution would be honoured. However, to my surprise, I just found out they send me 47598 Safecoins! 🙂

  16. Weioo

    Just as I suspected, the big drop to end the ~$480 price plateau… China and the release of the statements seem systematic to me since ~$800 prices. Whatever the case, I’m not a big fan of what’s currently going on with the ups and downs around the possible breakout point. This China news makes things even less clear.

  17. Amit

    Guys, i know you have high expectations and so do i but let’s be honest with ourselves, we are in a down trend since January and under the last US regulations/China news i don’t see any reason why people will buy bitcoins in higher price than $550, it is true it’s all subject to news
    but it should be a really good news to pump bitcoins up again to the $1000 zone

    1. Flavius

      It’s all about adoption really. If there were more people using it then more people would buy. It takes time, should pass $1000 in a few months.

    2. dropping to 430 was just creating volatility to break out thrue the wall on 520. difficulty rising pretty well, technology developing fast. there is no reason we will see a break of 430 now or ever again. thats just behind us. however, i could be also very, very wrong.

      1. Fabrizio

        I’d love to agree with you buddy … But look at the 6 months charts. We are still on this quadri descending triangle. 100 dollars drop expected soon.

  18. B. Mums

    Yesterday in the morning I noticed a green blip on the Bitstamp 3 days chart…by evening it was red, though. 😦 Right now it’s 1am China time and I just realized Huobi stopped reporting trades on BitcoinWisdom and the news from BTC China. Looks scary.

      1. B. Mums

        I think we may see something around 390-410 on stamp considering the news maybe? I mean, each hour marker more Chinese wake up and seem to be selling, and it’s only 2:30am there at the time of this post. I think we might decline for another 3-4 hours, no? Then again it seems we’re hitting that -1 support. I think it’s possible we hit that -2 support that Enky called out, likely now more around $400 rather than 380? Just my take on things.

      2. Arthur

        My last sale several days ago was on 495, at that moment I positioned everything back at 390, 405 and 410. Funny that you mention exactly that range. I see no reasons yet to rearrange anything… 🙂

    1. Arthur

      And this morning I noticed it went below 425… Presuming this trend will continue for a few days more when more and more Chinese exchanges will tighten their business policy, we will see the 390-410 range I’m quite sure. However, it will need way more volume to break through the 380 support zone I guess. And I have no clear view if that volume exists… Only after I happen to have closed the 390-410 orders, I’ll have a look into possible new trades in the 300 range. For the moment I’m a little positive that 380 support will hold, but that’s just a guts feeling because of the rather low 24hr volumes that we see currently, causing the drops into the low 400.

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