Quick Update

This market has stopped around the resistance price zone that I had speculated in the previous update (around $530) then resumed its downward movement. First support is in the area between 365 and 380 dollars, also because the 50% or midpoint of the previous swing from 340 to 548 dollars ($ 444) has already been broken down, which is certainly a bearish sign.
I believe that we will continue to see a decline in prices this week too, the main resistance is always the two month VWAP passing at 517 dollars.

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34 thoughts on “Quick Update

  1. Arthur

    Thanks Enky, for this update. Let’s see if it hits the (high) 300’s again in the upcoming period. It wouldn’t surprise me much, that’s for sure.

    @vanen, good move man! Even if it spikes up you can always buy back in way below 500. I did almost the same, for 2/3 back in fiat at 495. Let’s see where we are in 1 week… 🙂

    1. Arthur

      Hehe, yeah, indeed. 🙂

      And let’s be patient buddy, sometimes the price can stick to a certain level for over a week, floating in a range of just $25 – $30 margin. We might not even see the high 300’s this week, I mean…

      1. vanen

        yeah, i thought that too. maybe end of the week, or next week who knows, for now i’m staying in fiat 🙂

  2. Fabrizzio

    I’d love this market stop reacting like a perfect pump and dump. I keep seeing whales manipulating the charts on Bitstamp. Or is it Bitstamp internal automatic transactions? Why do i keep seeing people buying 500 or 1000 btc at the bottom of every dump, makes no sense to me. Anyway i’m a psycho

  3. Lite

    I got stuck @ 500$ but instead of panic selling I deposited more fiat and I am hoping to buy something in the $300-$380 range and to lower my average buy in.
    For this I use a multilevel buying strategy, that is , as price goes down I invest more money on each level.The levels that I chose are: 380, 360, 345,330,315,300,290. What do you guys think of this?

    1. Arthur

      Good strategy if you believe the price will go that low for a major part. In my humble non-expert opinion it will not go that low since there is support on 365-380, as Enky wrote. Support can be broken of course, but I think around 400 is a good price zone to start a new bullish period later in Q2. Just a guts feeling, nothing else.

      For the moment I put 90% of my remaining orders above the support zone (on 380 and 390), and 10% inside the support zone (270). In case it goes down more, I can always set up a few new trades.

  4. DJustin

    Hi everyone. I have been reading this blog for awhile now and it’s great. Right now I think we are at a point where everyone is holding because they don’t want to miss the secondmarket, wall street boat. China is done for the moment and it seems we are steady at around the 430-445 mark. I’m not really sure what I could pick up at the moment so I am 100 percent in and going to invest more through may. I think “Lite” has the right strategy for the time being. Just waiting to see what the whales are gonna do in the next few months. Not sure when all this good news is gonna catch up with the heard and it takes off. But I might be doing this wrong. Lets see if we get another pump this week.

    1. Arthur

      It happened a few times before this year that the price looked stuck on a certain level before it dropped further. I noticed it can last up to 9 days, wobbling around in a zone of 25-30 dollar. Because the trend is clearly down again after another false recovery, and since I believe China is far from over, the panic traders might surprise us again with a firm drop into the 300’s. For example, I’m waiting for the first Chinese exchange to discontinue their business, or others to further tighten up their trade policy.

      And I’m not having high hopes for Wall Street investors jumping into bitcoin en masse. Not soon I mean. Those guys are not stupid. And they have tight rules to follow. Only a tiny % of their money is allowed to go into high risk investments. They want killer apps that bring in millions of bitcoin users PER MONTH. They need a regulated infrastructure, insurance companies that know the risks of bitcoin, etc. etc. For VC investors this is a fun period to be involved in bitcoin, but Wall Street investors are a completely different league, believe me.

    1. Arthur

      No, we are patiently waiting for the next plunge, meanwhile wobbling in the 430-460 zone since April 27. At least that’s how I see it… 🙂

    2. B. Mums

      I agree with Arthur. If you look at past graphs it’s not uncommon for the price to ever-so-slowly rise before a big dump. My guess is the dump is coming in the next 24-36 hours.

      1. DJustin

        Ya but… I’m feeling a pump this weekend before the dump. I am betting that the price will hit 540 this weekend then we go down. Anyone want to bet? Lets say if the price hits 540 this Friday Saturday or Sunday I win and the loser has to donate 0.25 btc to this blog. If it doesn’t I will donate 0.25 btc to this blog. If anybody welches then we can have enky block them for life. Sound fun anybody? Either way we all win. Who wants to take the bet? 540 bitstamp prices. Anyone?

      2. Arthur

        @B. Mums, yes anytime soon indeed.

        @DJustin, not betting on it with money, but I don’t see that happen, to be honest. I think it’s even unlikely that the price will be touching the 470-490 range once more, but who knows. Like B. Mums said, past graphs show mostly that after such a slow rise, a rather firm plunge follows, without a huge spike just before that. Take, for example, the period of March 8 to March 19, when the price wobbled roughly between 610 – 640 before it dropped to around 550 on March 23. However, this is bitcoin, anything can happen lol!

        On a sidenote, it just hit the low 440’s on Bitstamp as we speak, after it was on 465 yesterday.

  5. DJustin

    It’s been pretty hard to be bearish with all the good news coming out. Anyone paying attention to btc has got to be excited. Right now I am 50% in because of the news, and 50 % in fiat because of the charts. Anything can happen at this point and I really don’t know what will happen. There has to be a breaking point. Like I said in a earlier post I have been reading this blog for awhile and the info has been very valuable to me. So I am gonna donate anyway. Lol. Just thought I would try to make it FUN! 😛 -cheers. The bet is still on for anyone who wants to take it!

    1. Arthur

      Fully agree on this DJustin. It feels strange that while the fundamentals for a bitcoin spike up are really well (bitcoin user/price ratio is extremely low, VC investments in bitcoin infrastructure are soaring, and I’m expecting these bitcoin killer apps anytime soon <= Robocoin made a rather good step forward with turning their ATMs into Bitcoin Banks) but still we are in this bearish triangle for some reason. Making bitcoin, like gold and especially silver by the way, rather underpriced assets for the moment. For gold and silver I cannot speak, but for bitcoin I think the market is still nervous about the things going on in China. Add some uncertainty about regulations in general, the rise of Ethereum, MaidSafe and the likes, and here you go. And as long as no new so-called 'whales' are jumping into bitcoin, the bitcoin price will stay low. Which is, of course, an opportunity for us here to grab a few extra coins before bitcoin turns bullish again. 🙂

      1. Donald

        and still no real users for bitcoins, bitcoin is still not being used as a currency
        most people are not using it to buy things but only to buy it as investment or to trade it
        and till that happen bitcoin is still a wet dream for the small investors

      2. @Donald

        Where are your graphs for proving your thesis? Stats what I know showing opposite. Or is it more a feeling in your stomach as a small investor with a wet dream on the internet?

  6. Elie

    An update from my end, I have been selling gradually and slowly for the past few weeks. Sold last night my last BTC. Put a buy at 380 and another at 345. Seeing the volume is very low, and were slowly drifting downwards we might be heading lower than 365 or 380.. but I will be able to tell once I see the volume of buyers vs sellers when we reach that level.

    1. Arthur

      Hey Elie, welcome back, we missed you and your updates! Hope you had a nice holiday. 🙂

      Just a thought on the range below 365… I’m currently hesitating to put orders there, so I won’t do that now. My current bets are in the 370-390 range. Because the only way I can see bitcoin going lower as 365 is when all 3-4 big Chinese exchanges call it a shot like FXBTC, a rather small exchange, did. A sellout from that magnitude will bring the price to the 200-300 range, I’m quite sure.

      However, I don’t think that’s going to happen; most, if not all, of them big Chinese exchanges will move abroad and continue their business. What do you think?

      1. Elie

        Arthur, the reason I dont fully agree is that the PBOC set a deadline for the exchanges to cease transacting with Chinese banks and cease using CNY currency all together. The deadline is May 10th. Now if HUOBI and BTCCHINA will move abroad overnight and before that deadline = I highly doubt. I think they will probably move abroad far later than the deadline and as the deadline gets closer in the next few days we will hear more exchanges communicating bad news to traders. Also as the deadline gets closer, the market will head down further.

        Another factor that were missing is the “demand” right now. There is no real demand for bitcoin due entirely to the chinese since december. Until were fully done with China we will keep going down further.and further. The good news is I think after May 10th we may be done with China for good. But will that bring back the BIG demand? probably not but 1-2 weeks past May 10th we should be able to head upwards to 517 (VWAP from enky) and try breaking through from it. But will see next week the non-technical news coming in from China etc then we can revist the TA. I am sure Enky is revisiting some of his TA and #s too. Hopefully an update by next week from him

      2. B. Mums

        Great perspective Elie, thanks. After reading that I definitely see it happening.

      3. Arthur

        Good reasoning, however, a move abroad is, technically, for every online business piece of cake and will happen overnight (I’m an IT consultant, I’m in this business). Finding good personnel again is a different story though, but they have had many months to prepare. I remember they mentioned this ‘move abroad’ option only a few weeks ago, but no doubt it crossed their minds much earlier. On top of this, the remaining Chinese investors/users are not the weakest people anymore, and lots will hold, waiting for better times, until they are forced to sell.

        Anyway, that’s why I’m taking the careful approach: high 300’s first to get back in coins fully, and set up new trades for lower ranges when I’m convinced it will go there.

    1. Arthur

      lol I know what you mean! We all wait for a drop, but it doesn’t happen, right? It’s still stuck in that 430-460 zone for over a week.

      This week it will happen, I’m quite sure. I had expected the Chinese to be faster with their news, but with one of them recently announcing to close down at the end of this week (causing a drop from 460 to 430) there should be more announcements this week, I presume. Let’s see if these announcements bring the 300’s within reach… Fingers crossed!

      1. Najska

        I’m all in BTC and NMC right now, looking forward to the outcome : ) A drop will definitely happen, but will it be profitable for the bears? I think it’ll be good only for the lucky ones.

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