Short Term Update: bitcoin is showing some sign of life

chartThis is a four hours chart using BitFinex, i’ve decided to move there but it’s a temporary decision, i’m not particularly ecstatic about an exchange that used the stolen code of bitcoinica as a starting point. I decided to ignore hitbtc because they are blatantly faking volume activity since mid april; an unfair practice that i really hate. I’m currently exploring also ItBit, the Singapore based exchange, it could be my next choice.

XBT/USD is showing some sign of life after it moved above the weekly VWAP, it could be the first step for a long term reversal as long as it stays above $440. I’ve noticed that also the weekly net volume recovered from a very bearish situation back to neutrality and the two months VWAP is not so far, currently at $480.

Many investors and traders are waiting a further drop below $400 and possibly lower, a couple of weeks ago i was waiting a drop to $300 but the market stopped at $340, at this point I’m not so sure that this market will satisfy us with a further drop considering also what i’ve said in my previous update about the length of this correction started last December. I smell the possibility of a market upmove coming soon and against the expectations of all with the effect of surprising everyone.

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20 thoughts on “Short Term Update: bitcoin is showing some sign of life

  1. timeshareafrica

    Hi Enky, thank you for all the trading signals and the info you sending.
    If one correlates the bitcoin price and the hash rate which R² do you get?. I dont have any data on this and thought you might be able to help. Thanks

  2. in fact something is going on. we are in a short term up trend and the swaps prices are raising its signal for moving more up. i agree, but i am not a daytrader. it could be also the way first down and then up. around 480 is the break of the trendchannel to wait first.

  3. DJustin

    I have decided not to do anything until next week because of the news coming out of China. The Chinese exchanges are implementing stricter policies on may 10th. Fxbct will close down on may 10th, 5 ceo’s of the largest exchanges in china will be pulling out of the global Bitcoin summit on may 10th. I’m waiting until next week to buy. Hope I’m not being to cautious.

  4. Sasha Asgary

    Hey Enky,

    Firstly great work on the charts. I really enjoy receiving your updates especially the one from last night. I am exploring exchanges to run my strategies on. I really like Coinsetter and have had good talks with them even if they are still in Beta. I think they will be the most advanced, secure and liquid exchange by the end of the year.

    I had a few questions for you on your experience so far:

    I am interested to know why you chose BitFinex and what your experience has been so far. Have you used their margin or shorting features? How did you figure out that HitBTC was faking their volume?

    I am also exploring ItBit but haven’t reached out to them yet…

    Thanks, _____________________ Sasha Asgary sasha.asgary@gmail.com

    1. It’s a temporary decision, bitfinex has similar liquidity to bitstamp and the possibility of margin trading and short selling, for the rest i always recommend to don’t put too much money on those unregulated exchanges to mitigate the risks. My experience with bitfinex is close to zero:) if unsatisfied i’ll change again.

    1. Elie

      volume of buyers versus sellers on HUOBI mainly (and Bitstamp) is currently negative. Does not look like that a lot of buyers are following so far. But it s possible that we will keep going upwards slowly every 2 days by an increment of 10 or 20$ who knows. Else we really need to dip down a last time and get some buyers to be able to rally strongly. But so far if it is crosses 480 significantlyI will have to buy in.

      I feel bad now that I sold gradually i should have held my coins. I lost for the time beeing in this downturn. will see with time

    2. Arthur

      Trust Enky vanen, his predictions are always quite accurate and he’s not afraid to recall earlier predictions, like now. I bought everything back at 445, making a profit of around 2.5 coins with all my trades so far since the 548 high. Lost 0.03 XBT on my hitbtc account, too bad. I was aiming for 6 coins profit when it would have hit the 370-390 range, but c’est la vie. Still very happy… 🙂

      I’m sure you read my comments here and there in favor of a lasting bearish trend that might make the high 300 possible between now and end of May, however I also mentioned that China looks priced in, and it really takes bad news to make firm drops. And they just don’t pop up, so the 420 price was never broken. So yeah, secure your profits while you can, I guess, and wait for things to come, vanen… That’s what I’m doing now anyway!

      1. Arthur

        Talking about happy… Just added the latest trade in my trade administration, and I noticed I celebrate 3 months of bitcoin trading today. In this period my bitcoin position has grown 50.9%, and the average buy price has dropped from $552 to $366. Out of 24 trades total I missed 3 trades (two minor for a total loss of 0.09 XBT, one major which cost me 1.63 XBT, ouch), and 21 trades were successful. Not too bad, I guess…

        And on another sidenote, behind the scenes I’m in touch with a few other amateur bitcoin investors (yes, I’m spreading the disease!), and I thought of giving our XBT team a name: ‘The BOB’, which stands for ‘Bulls On Bitcoin’. This is free to ‘Bulls On Parade’, a song from one of my favorite bands called Rage Against The Machine, and a reference to the fact we are bullish for the future and in it for at least 5-10 years more. Anyway, let’s see what they think of this name! 🙂

      2. Elie

        Update from my end i bought in fully after seeing the chinese buyers were following slowly the market upwards. Probably by next week we should touch down with the VWAP 480 and break past through it slowly like a slicing knife (unless China can still have some effect – but highly doubt it at this point – chinese cant anymore do transactions to anything that touches bitcoin).

      3. vanen

        congrats arthur!! funny name btw xD bulls of bitcoin lol i never really like xbt so i’ll probably use it now too xDD

        but still, it seems even enky is doubting it’s own prediction… i was in for waiting more, but with enky new ticket and seeing it goes up , i mean, i dunno… i have some margin so i won’t lose any bitcoin if i react quickly, but damn, what a missed opportunity…

        oh and ellie, i love your advices, cuz enky’s analysis are very very technical with a some personal angle in it, and you are quite the opposite, very personnalpersonnal/feeling and predictive about what’s going to happen if, with often very good accuracy so it’s very complementary to have both of your previsions, i will definitely look for what you’re saying, if it ever goes more than 480 i’ll definitely be fully in bob lol

        i dunno if i already said it, but sorry for my s***** english lol, i mostly learned watching tv and video games so don’t ask me about grammar ^^

      4. Arthur

        Thanks man. 🙂

        Well, I explained Enky’s recent technical info as follows for myself. He said somewhere 444 is the ‘midpoint previous swing’, when that line is broken downwards, it’s definitely a bearish sign for further lows. So what I do is, when a price is mentioned, I add 5% on both sides to make it a price zone. In this case it makes a zone of 420-465 (roughly), however I called it 430-460 also previously. Then I also remembered the next important zone, which is support on 365-380.

        I use these important zones that Enky mentions as a guideline for my trading strategy. Price going down and hitting the lower side of 420-465: bearish, no doubt. But returning to 460-465 multiple times, hmmm… Let’s be careful and prepare for a buy in at 470.

        So either it would be hitting the next support zone which was my gamble, or I would still make a little profit with my 495 sale when buying back in at 470. Well, you are doing exactly the same, vanen, I’m sure!

        Also, always buy and sell coins when the direction between these zones is clear, and always go against the market at the right moment. Sometimes a safety buy in is needed though, and a stop-loss level for avoiding too much loss. ‘Go against the market’ is a concept I really had to learn, but I’m getting a feel for it, I guess. I still remember that Goxcoin messiah that traded in coins stuck at Mt Gox just before they went bankrupt, and with the messiah hype the price went up to the 600’s. I felt there were no real fundamentals behind it, and when the price looked calmed down again, I sold 5 coins, and used the money to buy back 7.4 coins at 425 a little later at the day Mt Gox went offline. My best trade ever…

        Sorry for my long ramblings, just love to share my experiences, hoping you can use them in your benefit!

      5. vanen

        mmhhh.. that’s definitely what i am going to do then. i would have buyed back if the price went to 480, but if it hits 470, then it’ll definitely hit 480 too so it is smarter to buy at 470. thx dude ^^

  5. Fabrizzio

    I’m Back in the train buddies, no way i miss this one. Prepare for the wild ride to da moon. I’m telling ya.

    1. Fabrizzio

      I think The holding of Bitcoins could actually be a sign of confidence. Thats what I think 🙂

      1. Amit

        yes and still does the fact that people are not using it yet (beside investing or trading) doesn’t make you worry a bit?
        did you know for example that mobile payment systems are failing to take off :
        http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2014/04/27/mobile-payment-systems-fail-take-off/LTYGTCqyzkZ9dOkmeTNpGN/story.html
        and you know how much money is being spent from vc’s in this field?
        i just wonder if those rallies that everyone are waiting for are doomed to fail till bitcoin will really be used by millions around the globe, also the big investor dont want to loose half of thier money.

  6. Fabrizzio

    Investments are already made, thousands of businesses are accepting bitcoin now due to companies like coinbase.
    It’s just a question of time until bitcoin becomes mainstream. Even pure chart analysis dont show Xtc fall down to 300 any sooner anymore. China Exchanges will find ways to keep trading.

  7. Weioo

    Dang…I had a feeling I should have bought back when it dropped to ~411 early this week. I figured it was going to drop back down to 390-400 again this weekend (today), after it got back up to 435 the last few days. On the other hand I’ve been a bit paranoid it could jump up $30+ without me noticing until too late. I guess it’s time to buy back in at a slight loss rather than risk buying back in and be down another 0.5 btc!

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