Short Term Update: H2 chart at BitFinex

chartSince my last short term update XBT/USD topped at ~$460 and retraced back to the weekly VWAP, the RSI oscillator is oversold now so i’ve to conclude that there will be a new upswing from here.
Well when it is too easy there is always something wrong, i think there could be a further drop to the first support line at $430 before we see any upside; don’t forget that $427 is also the first negative deviation line of the 2 month VWAP, i think that for the next days this price zone should hold (around $425-$430).

For all the readers of this blog that likes to do short term trades i recommend to watch out that support area i mentioned before with the idea to close at or above $440, in any case it’s better to use a tight take profit because of the overall picture not yet bullish.
The stoploss should be tight as well, if this market breaks below $420 better to quit the position or open a short position up to the next support at $375-380.

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13 thoughts on “Short Term Update: H2 chart at BitFinex

  1. Elie

    I knew i shouldn’t have bought in few days ago at 450 but wtv at this point I will not move unless we break down 420 (tired of doing short-term trades and I am not that successful lately). Let’s face it China has never been fully priced in. Every news coming out of there is a non-Technical event which has a bearish potential that can cause a little or big dip. The last few weeks news did not cause any major dips but today’s news coming from China comes from the PBOC saying that trading stamps/coupons for Bitcoin is illegal and that the only thing that Bitcoin exchanges can do is to use cash to trade. This is possibly the last nail in the coughin for China (I hope – or maybe the last one would be to ban bitcoin exchanges from operating).

    As for Enky’s Techniocal analysis that’s how I summarized it:

    1. We failed to break past $460 (weekly VWAP) and never reached the 2 months VWAP of $480 = so we had to head down to gain some steam upward
    2. RSI oscillator is oversold now = should be a new upswing from here (refer to 1)

    3. But before (2) upswing occurs, we will dip down to $425-$430, we should stay there till wed. next week then rally up. If another piece of bad news occurs during this time go to 4.
    4. If we break past $420 (say reaching $414 without bouncing strongly up), sell all your BTCs and place you orders at $380

  2. Arthur

    Thanks Enky, I’ll keep an eye on the 420. Mixed feelings about the market these days, I guess you have that too… Are we consolidating for a few weeks more, are we preparing for another 300, or are we going up again sooner than we thought? Time will tell. I’m really glad with your previous post to be honest, and with this post you again show how much you are on top of the market, and care for your followers here. Because with 100% in coins again now, I’m prepared for any direction. A drop to 430 just now, while I bought back in at 445 doesn’t change that opinion.

    1. vanen

      hey bud! if you want to know, here’s what i did : buyed back @ 435, so i gained a little bit since i sold at 500 ^^ i was at 1.4 when i made my first bitcoin transaction, now i’m almost at 2.10 hehe i’m so proud ! ka-ching ^^ anyway, i’m waiting to see what happens, ready to act depending on two scenarios, if breaks (BREAKS) 420/415 then i sell everything, and if it breaks 460, well, then i wait for the next drop xD

      It’s the first time i really feel that it can go both ways. kinda overwhelming lol

    2. Arthur

      Well done! Do you realize you own 50% more coins since you started trading? Though you’re the most risky trader I know here, it seems to pay off so far, vanen. Congrats! 🙂

      1. vanen

        haha yeah ^^ thank you man! yeah, i could you know, act more secure, but with that few bitcoins, i mean, profits will be so tiny… i think that if i keep not freaking out when it doesn’t go as planned (one time, one loss , i’ve learned the lesson xD not sure it’ll be the last though …) maybe when i’ll be next to the 10 bitcoins (if i ever get even more than 3 xD i have like reaally really bad luck, trust me) i’ll stop doing 100% trades. but for now, heeeeeelll 500 here i come!!

  3. Amit

    Thanks Enky! as i thought, we wont see the big investors get in before they are sure we are bullish again,or until they are sure it was the ocean bottom. they don’t want to lose their big bucks.

    1. Mioki

      where is the ocean bottom then? you think when big pockets decide about going long they set up a meeting telling everyone so others buy after them too? i don’t think so, in fact somebody has to sell/lose for you to win or more simply we rob each other, and if you are thinking about going to sub 400 you may have to rethink as the longterm downtrend has broken already, here take a look at this https://www.tradingview.com/v/Z7gPcxg3/

      1. Elie

        agreed and we bounced from 425 to 441 as I write this. If no other negative chinese news come in in the next few days, we should see a rally back to the 500s breaking from the December 2013 triangle.

  4. a volatility momentum cooled down. rsi will go up without a price jump i guess. no daytrader infos. just guessing.Rien ne va plus!

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