I’ve decided to buy after a strong breakout of the previous intemediate $548 top. I report here the 3 days chart with the up/down volume ratio finally bullish after more then five months of bearishness, I think this is a very bullish signal for the long term. It is pretty obvious that for a better confirmation we need to move above the $710 top of March ’14.
Looking again the one year VWAP and its deviation lines i think that the next important resistance area will be at $750 where probably sellers will show up again. Now XBT/USD is near the first positive deviation line but i think there is enough fuel to move above $600, in any case there could be a break of $50 from here down to $520-$530 where i’ll probably open a second trade averaging down my position.
Averaging down a position it is often considered a bad mistake but i’ve a different opinion. In books and information about trading all say the same things, that you should never averaging down a losing position, etc… Well they strongly emphasize that money management is a key aspect , they always tell you that it is dumb to average down, to always use stop losses, risk 3% of your account and so on, it is something like a never ending recycling of bad ideas used by the retail traders that produces the illusion of certainty.
Because 95% of traders always fail you have no choice to do exactly the opposite to succeed ; under some circumstances, averaging down can help you to mitigate the uncertainty of market speculation and allow volatility to produce profits for you without the need to be a guru in divination.