Quick Update: 2 hours chart

chartOver the past three weeks the market rallied and almost all of the indicators I follow rallied with it but it is not enough for me, i want to see XBT/USD going above the previous top of $710 and so far the last top has been done at $680.  A 10% correction happened but the short term VWAP (computed using last 7 days) is providing support, in case of a break i see the $550-$580 price zone as a strong one which should prevent any attempts from sellers to move this market further down.

Bitcoin should move up further from here considering that the RSI oscillator is now oversold and because the price is still above the VWAP i think that an healthy correction just ended, XBT/USD should go up towards its first important test: to break through the $710 february’s price top.

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104 thoughts on “Quick Update: 2 hours chart

  1. Arthur

    Thanks Enky, as usual. I cancellled my 740 sale, not sure yet what to think of the current situation for setting up a next trade. In case of doubt: don’t do anything (my own rule, in a bullish market that’s never a losing strategy lol).

    On a sidenote, this weekend I spend a few hours reading into the infamous S-curve material (new, disruptive inventions go through an S-curved development cycle from birth to mass appeal, roughly growing 10 times per year), then trying to project this concept on bitcoins’ price development, knowing it’s outperforming the classic S-curve big times. Because this is what we know so far, for every full year that bitcoin exists, on average it rises 21.5 times per year:

    2009: 0,00 -> 0,01
    2010: 0,01 -> 0,30 (30.0 x)
    2011: 0,30 -> 4,58 (15.3 x)
    2012: 4,58 -> 13,24 (2,9 x)
    2013: 13,24 -> 732,00 (55,3 x)
    2014: 732,00 -> ??? (Enky estimates 4,1 x or slightly more with a goal of 3,000 – 3,500)

    And when this S-curve model is projected to the (near) future, it would roughly mean we will see bitcoin doing $100,000 PER COIN within 2 years. Mindboggling… I wonder what all you guys think of this? Is it possible?

    1. Arthur

      (sorry I put , (comma) in the numbers where it should have been . (dot). Dutch habit lol!)

    2. Mike

      Arthur,
      I enjoyed your bit on the S Curve. There’s been no shortage of theories on the trajectory of Bitcoin price this year. Fortunately, imho, there has been more than sufficient developments in the “fundamentals” of the Bitcoin world to justify the lofty theories. As
      For the current drop, this is a mere technical correction. The steady rise since the mid 400s has created sufficient trading complacency and a healthy shaking was due.

      Thanks to Enky to his always timely TAs.

      1. Amit

        I wish it will got to $100,000 in 2 years (:
        bring me the one that will put $100,000 on pure speculation
        for it to go to $100,000 we will need at least 10,000,000 users or more
        who are using bitcoins to do their shopping (:

      2. Arthur

        “Fortunately, imho, there has been more than sufficient developments in the “fundamentals” of the Bitcoin world to justify the lofty theories.”

        I agree. And the Mt Gox and China issues never put stress on the disruptive power of Bitcoin itself, although creating a ‘cheap’ coin down the bearish road last 5 months. Something to think about…

    1. Arthur

      Agree, I researched that part too. Correct me if I’m wrong, but by years end we will have roughly 7,500,000 to 10,000,000 users (only). That is still very, very far away from mass adoption. There is still a world to win, literally. As far as I know 80% is keeping the coins as an investment, 20% of the coins are used for daily business (Coinbase provided these figures a while back). This is, I think, a normal part of the skyrocketing process in the price development of the coin, since people are rather unwilling to sell a coin when prices go up, creating a demand overkill the more people jump into bitcoin. Some people criticize this behaviour of not using the coins, however, I can’t blame investors/users to hold when prices go up. Anyway, as long as there is a steady, but growing number of new users joining the bitcoin community, the S-curve holds… Another thing to think about…

      1. Elie

        This is great, I think on the Apple news we should be able to pass 710 easily now. It is as if Apple recognizes Cryptocurrencies and approves their use.

        Now I am thinking that when we see 750 we might overshoot it (similarly to when we overshot 660 by $23-25 and dipped down to 613 right after), we will also overshoot up to 767 to 780 and dip down back to 710-715. That’s the plan I am going to go with depending on the volume and other factors.

        What do u guys think? If we are able to sell at between that range 767-780 before it dips (if it does) then we will make a nice profit. 😉

      2. Arthur

        @Elie: makes sense, such trade. I might try 775 -> 715/720. Previously I had thought of 748 -> 685.

  2. Mike

    There’s little denying that the bull market is in the making. The drop yesterday simply could not get legs. The news cycle is really kicking in and the endless positive news that seemed to do nothing has been producing a ground swell of pent up demand. 700 is a given in the next 24 hours and we can only guess how high this run will go before a bit of rince cycle returns… hope all of you are all in by now.

    1. Elie

      Seeing a possible drop below 660 very possible as of this morning. We just retested previous 649 so we broke our 660 resistance. I expect we “could” retest previous lows and maybe 610 or 615 or a other lows above that range. But too early to tell, just watch.I want to add that last night we failed 2-3x to break 674-680

      1. B. Mums

        Yep, I’m so tempted to sell at 675ish next time it comes around, but with my luck that’s the time it’ll break 680, lol. I’ll continue to sit on my coins. I took out my sell order around $735 as I believe the 750 resistance levels Enky was talking about more so landed in the 680 range that we’re currently trying to break. Of course, we could see this all over again at 750. I think people are becoming more confident selling at the peaks, knowing it WILL dip again. That didn’t happen much since our low of 340, all the way up to 550.

    2. Arthur

      Yup, I’m 100% in coins since the 440’s. I tried a little trade in the 500’s which cost me 0.1 XBT, but it’s OK… The price of learning. Currently I’m not so sure if the 700 is broken soonish, it seems to wobble in the 650-680 range with a slightly higher chance of breaking out upwards I guess. But it might take a few days. Remember it was only 15 (!) days ago we were still in the 440’s! So this is a clear 50% rise in a very short period, without very firm corrections downwards so far (btw, go try and ask your bank if you can have such interest rate on your savings account, lol!). So anyway, we should be happy with these first positive signals that the bearish correction since the December 2013 top of 1,200 has ended, that’s for sure. Can’t wait what’s going to happen the rest of the year, I have good feelings about it… 🙂

      1. B. Mums

        I’m a bit embarrassed to say but I’ve lost around 0.4btc form a couple trades about a week ago. I saw a pump and it seemed to delay so I sold around 545 expecting a $15 dip, but it continued to pump to 580. I wasn’t sure what to do and feared it could get pumped again so I wanted out of fiat. I saw LTC was down about 20 points so I decided to jump into ltc at 0.207, thinking it would rise back over 215 easily, but it only continued to drop. I traded my ltc for btc at 0.0195 and I’m glad I did, but it cost me.The next day Enky said he expected to see the LTC/BTC ratio at 0.0150 eventually and I’ve seen it as low as 0.0166 now. I think a lot of people are moving from LTC to DRK for the time being.

      2. Arthur

        lol, don’t be embarrassed! The safecoins I got at their ‘IPO’ are not doing well either, but I don’t mind. I bought them with a 5-10 year investment outlook.

        However, and don’t laugh, I own a Dutch cryptocoin that is doing even better as bitcoin. They came for free a few months ago, got 100 of them and they started with a total value of just below $0.01. After it’s latest jump of almost 90% that 100 coins are now valued at $0.05. Yay! 😀

      3. Elie

        no worries B. Mums, I lost 0.14 in the past 2 days. The first day i was thinking to take out two hundred to get DRK which i did then i did some readings and decided that DRK did not worth crap. Then i rebought back at whatever BTC price it was yesterday not thinking much. Then this morning saw a big drop then i did a bad trade LOL. oh well im back in BTC fully but still lost a hundred. I will make it up on the way up. Looks like were heading up and we should break 680 soon. Then ill revist my next trade at 767 to 780 (overshooting region)

      4. B. Mums

        Well, I’m down to 4.9 coins, from a all-time high of 7.2 that I held for only a couple hours, to 6.3 for a few days, to 5.3 for a week before that last trade. I’ve been doing terrible and haven’t budged since the 580s. My stop-loss was 5 coins and I’ve exceeded that now.

        As bad as I want to make a trade, I can’t until we hit the next SURE top. I’m hoping for a pump to 740+ tomorrow or Thursday. I think I’d sell, expecting an eventual correction down to 710. Considering the price is hovering at $660 on average the past few days, I’d expect a max peak at around $80 the next pump, to top out at $740-750. Any thoughts?

      5. Elie

        B. Mums were u able to make back some money in this huge chinese drop? I totally missed and stayed in coins. But anyone in fiat would have made an unexcepted profit. this market is so unpredictable its crazy. I thought the drop in the morning will be like this but I got screwed and turns out the drop now by China did the trick…

        I wonder how low were heading. doesnt seem a strong bounce at 640. Maybe lower at 610?

      6. B. Mums

        I noticed after it dropped to 650 but I wasn’t sure how hard we were crashing. As it crashed further I kept feeling that nice irritating feeling of “yep, wish I sold!” lol. But now I feel I want to try and capitalize on the first rebound, I’m thinking I’m going to setup a sale right now at 644 on BTCE and hope to eventually buy back in around 605-615 in the next 24 hours.

      7. Elie

        were still going down tonight. I thought it recovered but not enough juice. I will stick with 610or 615 for now. Will have to be very patient. We might even break down to 580 Like Enky said depending on HUOBI/China’s willing. I might not sleep tonight Lol

  3. Lite

    Wow this bullish market simply is astonishing. I hope BTC will keep this momentum for the next 12 months. I bought at 470$ and keeping my coins since then, no trades because the last of them cost me about 2 BTC.*sigh*…I am still in LTC PPC NMC which I bought at .025/0.006/0.0055 BTC…When will you guys think these coins will surpass these levels? My guess is right after Bitcoin will find a stable level for at least 2 week or so, the alts will explode.

  4. Elie

    wow dump still continuing after an hour! Killed my evening, I sold earlier and still waiting at 615 hoping for support there.

    1. Arthur

      Haha, I noticed it went to 680 again last night, thought about selling a few coins, but didn’t do it after all. Then I went to bed, to wake up at the 630’s with a low in the 620’s (Bitstamp figures).

      After 3 missed trades of my last 5 trades, I’m getting more careful I’m noticing. Luckily it were not expensive misses, 0.4 XBT total (after I grabbed 14.6 XBT profits in the bearish correction period, so can’t complain).

      @B. Mums: you should turn your trading strategy 180 degrees NOW. You sold at the wrong moments, you bought at the wrong moments. From now on, when you think BUY, take a breath and SELL. And the other way round. This will make you become part of the 5% group that Enky is talking about. Really, it’s that easy, think about it… 🙂

      1. Amit

        I think it can be risky to trade now you can’t really know if it will break the 700 in a few days or not

    2. Elie

      I dont know what you guys are thinking, but I believe for the next 1-2 weeks we reached our ATH (all time high) for this cycle already – unless of course (1) some whale comes and changes everything by buying our way out of the 680 resistance or (2) and a set of very good news makes it happen.

      The fact that we were not able to break past 680 after SIX ATTEMPTS tells me that we do not have the volume, buyers and good news to get past it. I think the current new resistance is at 640 and 653-660 from where we will get a strong rejection downward. I set a sell at 653.

      I think we might recorrect down to two resistance (a) the VWAP 610 or if that breaks the previous strong low of -> 567 as Enky said, and that’s anytime in the next few hours or days.its really 50/50

    3. Arthur

      Good reasoning Elie, however, I’m slightly more positive than that. I see it like this (Bitstamp figures): it’s been hitting the 680 resistance several times already, so it definately wants to go that way. When it was trying the support lines on the downside, the first time it hit the 610’s, and then the 620’s, and the 610’s have not been touched again so far. So to me there is an uptrend, instead of a downtrend. On CoinDesk there is a Price Index page, and you can tweak the Bitstamp graph (and a few others) there from 1 hr to 12 hr to 1 day, etc. I use it a lot to get a feeling for daily/weekly trendlines.

      Anyway, that’s why I’m more positive for a break upwards. And this is also still consistent with what Enky is thinking: “XBT/USD should go up towards its first important test: to break through the $710 february’s price top.”.

    4. Arthur

      Well, let’s see now. It just came back in the 650’s again on Bitstamp. Will it break 660 going up, or bounce back down? I’m curious. 🙂

  5. Arthur

    On a quite serious sidenote, I noticed OKCoin China suddeny became #1 exchange on BitcoinCharts dot com with a 30 day volume of over 1,600,000 coins traded. That is 5 times as much as Bitstamp, the #2 on the list. WTF? Is OKCoin faking volumes, or did the Chinese indeed rush to OKCoin to start trading like crazy?

    1. B. Mums

      I’d bet they’re faking volume numbers. A number of Chinese exchanges are known for it and many of the bigger ones heavily speculated, at least at times.

  6. Arthur

    Hi Enky, I have a question for you, about how you look professionaly/technically at the upcoming period. Let’s presume we now enter another bullish period that will go looking for new highs, pricewise. How do you determine when the market is really ‘overheated’ again, leading to firm corrections like up to 50% or maybe more? Those firm corrections are, obviously, good trading moments… I’ve read about a theory that when the price is doubled within a week, then the market is really ‘overheated’ and a firm correction is supposedly near. However, projected to the bubbly past of bitcoin, it’s not a good theory, in my humble opinion.

    June 2011, doubling from $16 to $32 in 4 days, correction of around 90% followed, if I remember well.
    April 2013, doubling from $130 to $260 in 7 days, correction to $55 on April 16, 2013 (-/- 79%).
    November 2013, doubling from $581 to $1163 in 13 days, correction to $380 on December 18, 2013 (-/- 67%).

    When I take these figures to the future of the next bubble, the ‘ultimate’ doubling before the correction of the next bubble might take longer, like 20-21 days. We have just seen the first doubling from $340 to $680 in 50 days. Corrections of 90% or 75% are less likely since the market is maturing over the years, I think. But my guess is that a correction of 50% on top of the next bubble is still likely. My question is, how do you determine these type of things, Enky? Do you look at technical lines/zones and other info on a daily basis, and/or do you use theoretical background from other people which I should read into by your recommendation?

    Thanks for your opinions, as always!
    Arthur

    1. Enky

      What you are talking about are buying climax bars that identifies tops.
      Buying Climaxes come about when a financial asset makes a new yearly high, but ends with a loss for the week, and net volume or buying rate going negative.
      I think that now it is forming an intermediate top in an uptrend, if 680$ is the top probably the next bottom will be above previous consolidation range of $425-465, $500 bottom could be a nice candidate.
      There is another method to forecast tops after a breakout of a trading range, multiply by 7 or 9 the height of the range, in our particular case 40$, so 425+(40*7)=705$ or 425+(40*9)=785$, in one of my prev.updates i’ve talked about a 750$ resistance level, well it is in between those 2 forecasts.

      1. Elie

        So Enky depending on what happens in the next few days, we will know if this bubble stops at 680$ High or not. If it does then we expect a drop soon to first 550-580 if that does not hold then back to 440-465.

        But if we break past 680 going to the 705-785 range and top there somewhere on those 2 tops, then we might bottom later on at 623-640 or 550-580

        Thanks for the info.

      2. B. Mums

        At this point I’m going to guess we’re leveling out for a week or two like Anath explained, then I’d hope for a take-off….Or we’re dipping hard and going to reach the -1 dev of 580 at the least.

        I’m confident we won’t see the price double in a week or even two like we saw in Nov 2013 or any previous events. I think most people at least know about Bitcoin now and they are either investing now, decided not to get involved, or need to find more confidence. Bitcoin has been in the mainstream news and articles posted on major news sites for months now. That’s the first time this has happened, thanks to the price run-up in November.

        Some of you guys keep looking for the next time the price doubles in value, but I don’t think we’re going to see any steep rises like we have before, no more $100+ climbs IMHO unless some huge, major business starts accepting like Amazon.

      3. vanen

        i would love another drop before the big rally up. i always thought that there would be one coming, i just didn’t know when. hope it’s headed soon

  7. Anathema

    A little something i made. I hope this will create a link, otherwise just copy/paste. This is by no means technical analysis, as i know nothing of that. I just saw some amazing repeating patterns in the last two cycles and the one we’re in now. The indicator at the bottom is the MACD, you can see they look almost exactly the same in all three cycles, so i put some markers there for reference (the yellow circles). In both previous cycles, after the bearish phase there was a short and fast movement upward, then a consolidation phase (marked pink) that lasted about 1-1.5 month, to be followed by a a price explosion. If this current phase is the same, then i think we’re in the consolidation phase right now and hopefully somewhere in July we’ll see bitcoin go to the moon :).

    1. Anathema

      Well, tinypic made the picture about 50% smaller, but you can still sort of see what i mean.

    2. Arthur

      Sweet… Good eye! I guess there are no real guarantees that patterns always repeat exactly the same way in future (when for some reason 90% of bitcoin users decide to leave the market, we will see bitcoin die like the swan in Plato’s Phaedo, or should I say like Anna Pavlova on stage), however, as you might have noticed I’m also on a learning quest for these patterns…

      Again, well spotted! 🙂

    3. Arthur

      I noticed on reddit they share your thoughts. Different graphs, but very same outcome. After a roughly 50% rise price stays relatively flat with a light downtrend for about a month, then the bull run starts again beginning of July. The end of it would be 4-5 weeks later with a price in the 5,000 – 10,000 range.

  8. the 4 hours chart is showing a wedge. short range btc will decrease if it stays a wedge as they are strong contra trend signals. the last time we saw the monster giant triangle turning into a wedge and got this rally.

      1. Elie

        so far I have discarded that we will fall to 610 or to 550-580. zooming out of the chart we see were still linearly following a path upwards. Although it is slightly bumpy which is great to make some profit using TA, I believe we will CRAWL our way past 680 through 705. Then once we reach 705 we will fall back on our new resistance 780-784 and bounce from it upwards.

        bcmine what does your wedge say so far?

      2. the wedge confirmed. swap price fell. ema waiting for being crossed down. three signs of declining. we had a very silent night, so people waiting, dont buy and are waiting with selling. when we dont find a whale trading against this signs, there can be a steady or fast declining. I would prefer a classical avalanche down to 610 and then 580. (as always dont trade this when you dont know what doing)

    1. Arthur

      Yeah, so I anticipated on this already yesterday, expecting the wedge to confirm, and sold a few coins at 660 and puth the cash $ back on 615. Let’s see where this goes.

      1. I have a gut feeling were going up from here. I think the reason why we can’t break 680 is because whenever we hit here and above we get sales by those who have been waiting to exit Bitcoin when they bought in quite high.These sellers are dwindling. I don’t go on any kind of analysis just a gut feeling. I could be wrong.

      2. Arthur

        Maybe, I don’t know. It’s returning to the 660’s currently so it’s not falling yet anyway. Technically speaking I think we are in that flat period after a roughly 50% rise from the break of the bearish correction period. This flat period might last for a few weeks more, before a new and more impressive bull run starts. See post Anathema above, and I’ve seen the same sentiments appear on reddit and bitcointalk discussions. It might be true. And if true, we will be stuck in the 600’s for a prolonged period, lasting up till (early) July. During such flat period after the 50% rise, the price has a light downwards tendency in general, so I’m betting on that for the moment with a little trade.

  9. Amit

    Hi Enky

    I would like to know, what do you think about the new star called darkcoin as a long term investment
    after the price will drop from may’s pump (:

    Thanks,

    Amit

  10. Paul

    How about this for an analysis, it might go UP, it might go DOWN or it might stay SIDEWAYS… basically it will do whatever the f* it wants 🙂 My head hurts from staring at bitcoinwisdom charts all day trying to predict the future !!

    1. Yep, but people are basically looking at probabilities to make calculated guesses. Some people like using their gut feeling both are a art forms within investing, one based in statistics and one based on psychology. There are some basic investment rules one can follow to ensure success or least risk. Like HODL long term, diversify (othe alt coins?), and invest the bigger companies. Of course thing which is sensible is only hodl long term Bitcoin when it comes to currencies and get in early (we are still in early adoption phase :).

    2. FJ

      Paul: You are almost reenventing the well accepted Black Adder approach: “Get drunk, put on a silly hat and trust your luck.” It has been valid since the late 16th century and I am a most dedicated follower. I read this blog with great interest though, there are people here who have more than half a brain and sometimes their predictions come true. I realize that when you you actually make a living out of trading you have to make correct assumptions more than 50% of the time. As a totaly uneducated mendicant I would like to echo Peter’s concerns and what I expressed in an earlier post by me: There is a LOT of bitcoin owners arount who was screwed by the chinese a few times They bought at 700-800-900 and so on, hoping to make a fortune in 14 days and then get some from their wifes/whatever. Then life suddenly sucked big time and they are sitting an waiting to sell their coins at break even. I think there are a LOT of these up to 1100. Then the road should be pretty clean. Good luck to you all, I really appreciate all the input. ( Ask first, then kill…..Groo the wanderer.)

  11. Paul

    I too read this blog with great interest (Thanks Guys!) and totally appreciate that it’s all about calculated guesses… I’m just a bit frustrated at myself for making some stupid moves lately… Admittedly I’m definitely up on my original investment thanks to LTC “To the MOOON” last year, but I’ve managed to loose half of my profits during the course of my “learning to predict the future” 🙂

  12. Elie

    FYI we broke past the bullish linear uptrend with the last dump that happened to 650 and now we are most likely have a major good old Bitcoin recorrection by falling to 610 or like Enky said 550-580. thats so far how i see it for this evening. Hopefully that will change. But I already sold my coins and waiting in fiat as this point at lower (610)

      1. Elie

        Thanks, I wouldnt say correct though Lol i have done mistakes too. The issue with Bitcoin is that it fluctuates so much and so badly that we have to rethink again our next move over and over almost DAILY!. I was bullish and was still thinking we’d break 680 crawling past it until this dump today on Stamp that threw us outside the upward line trend. Which makes me slightly bullish and a little bearish.

        If you draw a straight line from the bottom low of May 14 which is around 448 and pass it by 572.69 up to our latest bad low of 621 you will see what I mean. which means we were thrown out today of our up trend. But doesnt mean 100% were going down YET badly to the 500s, maybe a whale will correct us back up (doubt though) OR also we could just end up being in a congestion period for the next 2-3 weeks till the next bubble OR of course drop to 610 (very likely) and see if the support (VWAP) will hold or not (I personally think it will hold and my bet is around 610-620) . I actually put mine at 620 for now as it is a safer bet. Feel free to comment or disagree.

      2. I cant really be sure if any of these happen because I really don’t have a clue about statistical measures/inferences, hence why I come on sites like these to see the views of other more informed speculators. I have though, been right a few times just using my gut feeling (actually psychology is my field). One thing I have noticed is for the past 6 months we have been in a downward trend and although this downward trend reached its bottom, I still think that it’s still embedded in Bitcoiner’s psyche to some extent, so what were seeing is some speculators possibly still expecting falls to certain degrees which maybe self fulfilled. As such I think you might be right with the 610/20 drop as the bear trend is over and I would like to think there aren’t enough forces to bring us any lower.

      3. Elie

        Looks like we were right and of course Enky was right major correction now happening on Stamp, we breached the ascending triangle and heading down as I right this we went from 660 to 639. My bests are around 610-620 and of course will re-evaluate as it heads down.

    1. Arthur

      Just a thought, but this drop to 635 confirms the development of a congestion around 650? I’m already quite sure that ‘The Anathema Theory’ is the most likely pattern to develop, however it needs another 1 or 2 weeks in the 650-610 zone to have a more clear match. For the moment I’m leaving my 615 bet untouched, it might reach that level someday anyway. As always, ready anytime to pick up my coins again.

      1. Can’t wait for this theory to be correct 🙂 Bitcoin is under priced, it’s gold 2.0 and gold has a trillions dollars market cap. Plus, if it reaches in the trillions volatility should flatten out, (here I and more people would be willing to use it more on a daily basis) and makes it even more valuable. So its a chicken and the egg scenario. It’s speculators like us that are making the first moves, probably because Bitcoin suits our political and ontological assumptions.

      2. Arthur

        Hi Peter (and other friends here!), this topic on bitcointalk is maybe worthwhile to follow.

        https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.340

        This guy called Stephen Reed (SlipperySlope) is collecting all kinds of information to check if bitcoin is still on the right track to reach a certain prefixed price. The link will drop you on page 18 if I’m right, post 5 and 6 are quite interesting for soms thoughts on the next few months. They fully support Anathema’s (and the undersigned) ideas. Starting from page 1 isn’t a bad idea either, but soms blablabla can be skipped, I guess.

        Take it for what it is though, an interesting read and nothing more… I found that topic a week ago when I was researching that S-curve thingy. Have fun reading, and if you have time, gimme your thoughts! 🙂

  13. the best would be now ‘trade what you see’ so waiting for a breakout in any directions. under 630 or above 690

    the trend is up, so anyway the big trades can be made with ‘trend is your friend’.

    the longer the bears dont attack the longer the rally will continue, so we make money during we sleep. a nice weekend to all.

    1. Elie

      thats right trade what you see as you go if you are successful and confident!

      Last night I re-evaluated my stance while it was going down to 635 where I bought! Then I sold right at the Bitstamp current wall of 1000BTC @ 655 where I made a nice small profit of 0.12 back 🙂

      Now were at 651 and I put my next quick buy at 645 then I will sell again once we reach 655 and go fully in fiat (again).

      But for sure my primary trade will still be at 610-620.

      Another thing is that 550-580 is still possible with Bitcoin if the whales want to surprise and move the market as they want, I think a “flash” crash their before the next big rally of July 2014 starts is VERY likely!

    2. Arthur

      “Another thing is that 550-580 is still possible”

      Absolutely, fully agree. That’s why my 615 bet is still there. You did well with the daytrades Elie, congrats!

      1. Elie

        Unbelievable another game changer, someone chopped off the 700BTC wall on Bitstamp at 655 and now were heading up to try to break the bearish trend and get back into our linear ascending upward cycle.

        If we get past 657 then we will be in the neutral zone in a congestion between 662 and 655
        If we get past 664 significantly then we will be back in our ascending line towards the moon? 🙂

      2. Artie

        “someone chopped off the 700BTC wall on Bitstamp at 655 and now were heading up to try to break the bearish trend”
        But that happened on Bitstamp and as far as I can see it Bitstamp is still more or less following Huobi. Obviously it will make it easier for the price to go up on BItstamp but I don’t think it’s that important. After all if Huobi were to blast off surely some whale would take the opportunity and would buy that 700 btc wall. Or am I wrong?

  14. Arthur

    24hr volumes dropping dramatically. Last time that happened, within a few days the first round of this bull run started. Just to be sure, I went back 100% in coins so I will not miss the second round when it decides to start a few weeks earlier as expected.

    1. Arthur

      lol my Limit Order on 652 created today’s low on Bitstamp. Made 0.07 XBT on that trade, which compensates nicely for a previous missed trade. And my average buy price per coin is now down to $403, where my goal is $400 or lower. Almost there! 🙂

      1. Nice! Your doing better than me, I bought some during the $1000 as that’s when I first got into Bitcoin and was buying blindly, but made up for it during the flash crash where I purchased the majority of my holding. Only done a few trades which as me up about 0.1 lol

      2. Just calculated my average buy in at $580, it hasn’t helped that im in the UK where banks have refused to work with any UK exchanges and low volume, so the price is always much more expensive per Bitcoin here. The exchange I use requires members to sell directly through there own online banking.

      3. Arthur

        Well, Peter, I guess you’re doing pretty well then! Looks like we both jumped in in December 2013, right? I was kinda lucky, I guess, I bought my first coins at 552, and with trading I brought the average price down to 366 in February – May. Then 4 weeks ago at 449 I bought some extra coins that brought the average price up to 405. Now I’m trying to bring it back below 400 lol.

        And I’m from The Netherlands, so Bitstamp turned out to be a good choice so far. Superfast SEPA transactions and high volumes. Can’t complain…

        Happy trading! 🙂

  15. Nice, I might consider bitstamp if I decide to buy in again. I bought my first bits January 1… Good luck with bringing it down!

  16. Elie

    im going against the market this morning. I think we will touch back the low of 650. not enough volume for the past 2-3 hours to go up, and I need to trade and get some small micro profit Lol. no whale showed up. seems slightly bearish for the next few hours 😉

    1. Arthur

      Talking about a dip… Some 1,500 coins were dumped on Bitstamp just now (on a 24hr volume of 2,500 that’s a rather huge dump I guess), but the price hardly blinked… It went down less than $15. Looks like buying momentum is building up, if you ask me. Or am I wishful thinking now lol?

      1. Elie

        sup Arthur i just woke up by chance after the dump, i had put an order to buy at 650 which got filled. wished i put it lower. I had a hinch before sleeping that a big dump was going to happen and it did. Only issue is I didnt know how bad and low it was going to get.
        This was a fake dump made by whales to get fear and shake handes of scarred new investors as we just turned the 1 week MACD green! now I dont know if it will head lower for e.g. to 610 before sky rocketing to 700-800 levels.I have calculated a favorite low of 606 to occur as our low 😉 lets see if that happens. Now I am trying to get in fiat before another dumps happened but I will flip to full fiat cautiously within the next few hours.

  17. Amit

    If i was selling and buying as much as you guys i would loose all my bitcoinssss LOL (o:

    1. Arthur

      Don’t worry Amit, after one little trade that compensated my previous trade loss in the 500’s, I’m holding 100%. I might not trade again before new highs will be reached, where corrections of 25% – 50% are more likely.

  18. Elie

    Seems the demand stopped at 650 and that is not good at all.
    we have big walls we cant break past through.
    Also this drop recovered slowly and we havent even reached the previous high of 660 to retest it.
    Seems bearish at this point for me unless something happens within the next few hours. It is becoming more and more likely now to me that 683 was the top of this cycle. A retracement to 550-580 is very likely at this point I believe IF we continue like this with this kind of volume.

  19. B. Mums

    You guys really need to settle down and relax for a minute, lol.

    I’m anxious as all heck waiting for the next big move too. I sold $15 ago (Thursday night) but I’m looking at the 1d and 3d graphs on wisdom and I’m pretty confident we’re leveling out with a very slow drop for another week, or we’re going to dip to at least $600ish soon. I’ve got buy-ins set on BTCE for $607 myself. I’ve got an alarm on my phone which is always with me so I can cancel and reset a trade within 5 minutes no matter where I am, work or home, or if desperate enough, from my cell.

    On the other hand, I’ve noticed the 1d chart and if the period all through Oct 2013 is the same/similar cycle we’ve seen throughout May 2014, we’re about to seriously moon it up. But for some reason I can’t see people panic-buying the way they did in November 2013 because back then the mainstream news sites JUST started releasing articles. Now it’s common practice and a LOT of people already know about, or at the very least heard about bitcoin. For this reason I don’t see people jumping to spend $1200+ on a bitcoin anytime in the next couple weeks. That’s my 2 cents.

    1. Arthur

      My thoughts are exactly the same. 650 seems to be the level where we are stabilizing and build up new confidence in the market. This phase might last several weeks more. However, make no mistake how many new investors will jump in for the next spike up, that group will be substantially bigger than ever before. They are currently performing risk analysis, reading into last years’ news, meeting with their financial advisors, and selling other assets to switch to bitcoin. Just be patient… 🙂

  20. Elie

    just fully bought in again now LOL huge volume spike and we hit briefly 670. Don’t want to miss the boat! Lets hope it is the right one.

  21. Michel

    I’ve been averaging down since january, bringing the avg price to 660 so i’m about break even now. I’m holding on to all of them though, for the long term. Exciting times!

  22. George

    How do you guys keep up with the averages with all those trades? Which SW do you use? are u using web services or doing math in excel like spreadsheets?

    1. B. Mums

      Take what you’ve invested into BTC. For myself, that’s $3000 USD, and divide by your number of coins. I have records of some BTC I sold on Coinbase back in January that I never bought back so considering those, my average is $441 myself.

    2. Arthur

      Exactly. All the cash you put in, minus the cash you’re using for trades, then divide by the number of coins you currently own. And I’m keeping track of my trades in Excel indeed… Hope this helps?

  23. FJ

    I’m at 590 now, had to buy a few at 430 to get here…hehe…don’t ask where I was in December after being chinesed. I also found a guy who would accept BTC for 2000 USD each a day at Gox price, I made USD 100+++ every day buying an reselling instantly with 45 second work. Too bad Gox died, but it was fun while it lasted. Yes, Michel, it is indeed exciting times. I can see that in 5-10-15 years the USD, euro, yen is history. But I can also see that Bitcoin is dead- 60/40 in BTC favour. We are fighting heavy artillery, may the force be with us!

    1. Arthur

      “I can see that in 5-10-15 years the USD, euro, yen is history.”

      Me too, but probably that will take a little longer lol. One bitcoin will then have a value of numerous millions of dollars. I read somewhere that one satoshi would need a value around $100.

      By then bitcoin needs more decimal places, a new place for the decimal itself, probably a new name and a completely new way of efficiently handling a huge blockchain file. All issues that will be solved, I’m sure.

  24. I agree but I dont think fiat currency will disappear because they are legal tender thus one can only pay taxes in fiat either way Bitcoin can continue without legal status. I don’t think an alt coin can ever replace Bitcoin, so long to Bitcoin adapting to any cryptographic problems in the future and efficiency issues. Alt coins have nothing else to offer that is significant over Bitcoin. Aristotle defined what money should be and Bitcoin fulfills this and more.

    1. Arthur

      Unless all governments worldwide are willing to replace their local currencies in favor of bitcoin… That’s why I think it will last 10+ years, if it ever happens. Here in Europe, when we started to use the Euro, it took like 10 years of preparation, if I remember well.

      There’s one big plus though for countries that rank themselves between the early adoperts of bitcoin: their governments can ‘promise’ their people a rather wealthy future, so I can see such move happen in Africa, Asia or South America in the next 5 years. Impossible? 1.5 years ago bitcoin was on $10 and now we see Robocoin introducing top notch second generation BTMs already. It’s amazing how fast things go…

      1. Yep, I know all about the Euro, as lived in Cyprus for 2 years (my parents are Greek Cypriots descent). Also seen many of my relatives and friends lose half the money in their bank accounts over 100k, quite shocking. The Cypriot banks invested in Greece, so when Greece went down they took Cyprus with them and the EU refused to lend Cyprus a few billions to balance their books. Yet, they lent (bailed out) other EU countries Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece. I guess not all member states are equal. It was mainly Russian depositors that got the hit big time, as many rich Russias have money in Cyprus and thousands live their.

        Yep, I think Africa is promising, Bitcoin will boost their economies big time. The remittance industry takes a staggering amount of money out of the African economy every year. If I was an Africa authority I would want this wealth to stay in my country rather than western Union take it. Also, Bitcoin is more stable (volatility wise) compared to a few African currencies, plus some African countries already are used to using credit like forms of currency on their phones etc. The vision is their, it just takes time, even years for these the foresight of investors to materialize but Africa is promising.

  25. Elie

    Not sure if you guys noticed but BitStamp is going almost opposite side than Bitfinex. It is very confusing at this point, it is like there was a division on the price by traders at two lead exchanges. Stamp seems more bullish while Bitfinex which has now more volume is full of bulls. At this point better stick to Bitfinex.
    I remember in our last leg up talking from 500 to 600 it is Bitfinex that lead the rally and Bitstamp was behind. I remember one of my friends calling me and telling me that Bitfinex hit 610 already while Stamp was still 20$ below or so..

    1. Arthur

      Hmmm… Good eye. Gives me the Mt Gox creeps a little about Bitfinex, to be honest. Hope I’m wrong…

      1. Anathema

        I don’t think we have to worry about that. Arbitrage between exchanges should prevent the difference from growing much bigger. The reason that that didn’t happen with MtGox is because it was very difficult to get fiat out of MtGox (it’s useless to sell there if you can’t get your money out afterward). As far as i know that’s not the case with Bitfinex. Still, a gap of $12 is plenty to make a profit with arbitrage i think, i would expect to see more of it, resulting in a smaller difference (like $5-$10). Maybe people have only recently noticed the gap and it takes a while before they’ve transferred some money to their accounts to trade with.

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