Long Term Update: Daily chart

chartThe long-term outlook of XBT/USD is still positive and a move to $750 appears likely. However bitcoin entered again in a congestion phase, a short-term correction might develop from here with a drop to the support zone at $517-$592 price range.
I remain confident that a short term bottom should develop above $580.

RSI oscillator is giving a sell signal but it is not accompanied by high volume so i’ve decided to ignore it for the moment. The net volume is positive on the 3 day chart (not included here) and not yet indicating a strong sell activity.

Strong support for the mid-long term is the 2 months VWAP at $517 @bitfinex and $508 @bitstamp.

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108 thoughts on “Long Term Update: Daily chart

    1. Elie

      nvm if we compare this news to the same news of DISH accepting soon bitcoin we will not see so much of a rally. There was a spike earlier in the day and thats about it! oh well i guess were still need to head down a little to the 500s and consolidate before popping up to 750

      1. B. Mums

        I don’t think any large companies accepting bitcoin will cause any further price hikes, as has been the case since February, with the exception of bad news. I think only a few comapnies have the power to cause such rises, such as Amazon, Google, or something equivalent.

        I’ve been waiting at 607 on BTCE for nearly a week now and missed two spikes down to ~620s before seeing it go back up to 635-640 eventually. I’m starting to think I should set my buy-in around 621 now but every time I rise my buy-in, the next day there’s a drop to where my previous buy-in was and I kick myself, lol.

      2. Elie

        hahah yes we will eventually get to 606 but as you said aim upward a littlle more as the down trend is going progressively down via 20$ range. today we hit 627 on Stamp but not on Bitfinex, finex was at 640 at that round. But next drop tonight or tomorrow will bring Finex at 620s for sure versus 606 on stamp IMO. 🙂 then after that well probably the doomed $500s?

  1. When I was visualizing this kind of news I often thought in the back of my head I could be deluded.. Its all happening now!

    1. Elie

      u wanna be careful Amit, DISH accepting bitcoin passed and we did not break so much. Also ebay/paypal looking into Bitcoin integration was amazing but did not drive the market up as we thought. Big possibility we see 500 then skyrocket after that upwards!

      1. FJ

        Hehe…as long as we skyrocket at one point I am cool. But: Dish & Expedia etc. are great news for the Bitcoin followers who have bookmarked Coindesk, Enky etc. etc. But do the average citizen care? If they should happen to notice The BTC logo somewhere will the not just (at best) raise an eyebrow and continue to check out paying in USD? If they do not see the 3% discount at the BTC logo they won’t care? At eBay BTC accepting sellers will discount you heavily if you pay directly in BTC.

      2. Arthur

        The average customer will not care so much indeed. But that’s not really important, short term. Because short term it are 80% investors making the price anyway. But those investors love to hear that the big names are getting involved. What is also important here, is the fact that the so-called ‘network effect’ is gaining speed. Meaning, the masses will automatically follow, presuming the big names do something good with bitcoin, like saving 5% on bank fees etc., and giving 3% away to their customers. That way bitcoin becomes the almost unavoidable option for paying. And customers will start demanding the same option elsewhere. A self-fulfilling prophecy…

        Short term this might mean almost nothing, but long term this is HUGE. And a next bull run depends, for a big part anyway, on a steady flow of this type of news.

        (Google follows Yahoo Finance within a day, awesome!)

      3. Mike

        Trading is an inexact science. That said, when this start moving, a lot of traders will either have gotten off the train for the possible drop and many will be watching to see an entry point that never materialize because the prices keep going up without a break … but until that time there is always the possibility of the tree being shaken… I’m staying in for now…good luck folks

      4. Elie

        well time will tell. I believe in the next few days we will head down to the 500s as enky’s forecasted, then after this we will skyrocket upwards towards 700-800 if not more. Bitcoin is going to be out there for sure with Expedia news I think TV stations might report on this in the next few days so I would say by Friday-Saturday we will start seeing the effect and the BIG rally

      5. Mike

        I would add that we’ve been in this trading zone where even amazing news seem completely impotent. I might also add that a different cycle will come where no amount of bad news will stop this freight train.

  2. The more merchants implement Coinbase (they aren’t really accepting Bitcoin), the more selling pressure will there be. Implementations like this can only offer more bitcoins on the market from long-term holders who are short on cash, but have Bitcoin. I don’t expect an average people buying Bitcoin with 1% comission just to buy on Expedia or hope that rate will increase so much to compensate the 1% fee and even profit from it. Only a small percent of people have the speculator bug in them, so, don’t bank on it. By paying with a credit card, you get tons of benefits anyway, so, Bitcoin should offer a lot more than the credit card benefits, but it will be tough. Expedia is saving 1-2% with Bitcoin, but that’s not enough to offer significant benefits to customers.

    1. Arthur

      “Only a small percent of people have the speculator bug in them, so, don’t bank on it.”

      80% (recent Coinbase research) is not that small I guess… And the funny thing is, it needs those type of figures to bring bitcoin to the next (price) level where a new group of people, communities, companies can start working on another set of Bitcoin use cases.

      “By paying with a credit card, you get tons of benefits anyway”

      That depends a bit on your mindset, I guess. A credit card is currently more accepted and comes in handy for an emergency payment where other payment means fail, but I would like to get rid of my credit card ASAP. It’s expensive, keeps me in a constant state of debt (I hate that feeling!), and it has inherently low online security. I had to block it several times in my life. And with bitcoin I can do so much more besides using it as payment system, it’s unbelievable!

      1. I agree with this, Bitcoin has yet to reach it’s potential, its programmable money. Things you can do with it are endless. I see it as the glass is half full not half empty. Also love how circle have jumped right in with removing costs, providing free insurance and making it easy to use Bitcoin already.

      2. No, you didn’t get me. Most people in Bitcoin are speculators, so, 80% is pretty low when it comes to Coinbase users. I just bought airplane tickets for our summer trip. Over $7,000 for the whole family. I don’t have the best card, but it gives me 1.5% cash back. There are cards with higher, especially when it comes to travel-related charges. So, I got over $100 from this purchase. If I had to pay this with Bitcoin, I had to pay $70 + worry that the rate my drop by the time I’m about to buy. So, it’s a nearly $200 difference + worries – why would I have used Bitcoin? So, let’s not kid ourselves among ourselves. Bitcoin is a speculator’s tool and that’s totally fine. What’s bad is misrepresenting it as something else that actually builds up a lot of negative energy.

      3. Arthur

        “I don’t have the best card, but it gives me 1.5% cash back.”

        Really, I don’t want to criticize your financial planning. The only thing I can do is tell my perspective so you can frown, laugh or shake your head about what I’m saying…

        I’m a person that takes cash to Asia to change it on the ‘black’ market because rates are 20-35% better. I closed my mortgage deal on 3.6% when the market was on 5.5%. When I buy expensive things for our household, I use my network to buy from factory personnel, because they get up to 40% discount in the factory shop. For flight tickets for our family of three (my wife is Malaysian) to different Asian countries, I use the same principle: cut out as many middlemen as possible, and don’t use payment systems that will give you, as we call it in The Netherlands, ‘a cigar from your own box’. So I’m staying away from points, vouchers, air miles, cash backs, payment schemes etc. The best deals are outside those systems, believe me… What they push in your face is in their best interest, not yours. And especially banks use your money to keep an overly expensive infrastructure alive.

        So yeah, bitcoin fits me, as you might understand. 🙂

      4. Anathema

        “Only a small percent of people have the speculator bug in them, so, don’t bank on it.”

        I’ve been thinking about that too. After the peak in April last year, there was still only a minority of internet-savvy people who knew of bitcoin’s existence. Then November came, bitcoin got heavy coverage in the media and i think that pretty much everyone has now at least heard of bitcoin. Those who have the “speculator bug” would have gotten on board the bitcoin train in December. Most, if not all of the bitcoin speculators are now fully in coins and have no fiat left to buy more. So… who’s going to do the buying that will cause a new huge bull run?

      5. Arthur

        “Most, if not all of the bitcoin speculators are now fully in coins and have no fiat left to buy more. So… who’s going to do the buying that will cause a new huge bull run?”

        Those things go in phases. When bitcoin was on $1 – $10, not any pension fund anywhere, or a loaded government department, was even bothering about bitcoin as an investment tool, if they had heard about it anyway. Still, when bitcoin is priced at $500 – $1,000, those huge piles of money are not going anywhere near bitcoin. Because if they drop 0.01% of their money in bitcoin, it would rip the bitcoin pricing system apart. For them, bitcoin is still a tiny penny stock. When bitcoin reaches a price of let’s say $100,000 or $500,000, then it will become interesting for them to consider an investment.

        Between us little investors with a few hundred or thousand dollar in bitcoin, then some VC people with some millions, and those people with the really huge piles of money in government and pension funds, there is still a huge world to win. And they will jump in bitcoin in batches, when the time is right for them. Do I make sense here, Anathema?

      6. Anathema

        @Arthur

        It was my understanding that those big investors would buy on private markets, to avoid influencing the bitcoin price on the public exchanges that we trade on. The opposite of that would be selling a huge number of coins, like the seized Silkroad coins. If the FBI would have dumped them on say Bitstamp, it would have crashed the price, so they sell it to a private party. But i guess that if huge numbers of coins are bought in a private market place, eventually it would also pull the “public” price up with it, only delayed and with price changes smoothed out.

      7. Arthur

        “It was my understanding that those big investors would buy on private markets”

        That’s only a small part of the market, and only the happy few have access to those private sales. The coins available on those private sales are limited too, and not always available when big investors want to jump in. So the huge bunch of big investors go to the official places that are available, and they try to make a good deal with an exchange on fee structure, deal size, buying structure to not disrupt the market too much, etc.

    2. Mike

      What Nikolay say has some merit. I recall in 1995 when I just upgraded to a spanking new $3000 computer with Windows 95. So excited about this new thing called the Internet. Got a hold of a Times’ article with the website addresses of sites worth visiting. What a letdown that experience was. For a few more years, I saw no good reason to go on “the Net.” All hype, it seemed. .. While all sorts of entrepreneurs and geeks were building it up. I am sure we’ve heard the comparison between the Internet and Bitcoin. I personally see the comparison to be a valid one. The timing of the chart of Bitcoin about to breakout for another run is uncannily timed with the enormous under and upper current of Wall St, Main St, Silicon Valley money about to go into hyper drive is quite palpable. If one does not see that, well, it is what it is. Looks like the big players are taking advantage of so many newbie traders in Bitcoin and their complacency now. A bit of tree shaking is in order. Buy more during this dip.

    3. Murl

      Bitcoin benefits the merchants, who don’t have to forfeit profits to pay processing fees. If you’re Amazon and you can save several million dollars a month by using Bitcoin instead of credit cards, why would you not? Bitcoin is a brand new technology that no one knows how to use yet. The potential is limitless.

      1. Obviously you’re one of those poorly informed people who give Bitcoin the bad name. First, Coinbase (similarly to BitPay) charges fees. In fact, it’s 1% + $0.15. On top of that, if the consumer needs to buy bitcoins from them, it’s another 1% + $0.15, i.e. total fee is 2% + $0.30, which is not much different than credit cards. No cash back, no rental car protection, no other benefits that come with the credit cards! Also, purchases are not immediate unless you’re verified with Coinbase, which gives you $1,000 instant purchase per week. If I want to book my next vacation with Bitcoin, which is more than $1,000, I need to wait nearly a week for my bitcoins to arrive. Last, but not least – credit cards exist and are popular not because the merchants like them, but because the consumers demand that. So, if you’ve been involved in commerce, you would never doubt who’s the boss! There are many merchants, all fight for the same consumer. Maybe if you’re selling child porn or drugs, competition is not as fierce and Bitcoin is a viable option, but Bitcoin will never be attractive to the consumer as it’s hard to get, it’s slow, it cannot handle real-time commerce (with it’s limitation of 7 transactions per second globally), the theft, and others. The Bitcoin trolls also repeat the same mistake – they often accuse others of not getting how it works. Well, if you read an article with tens of comments “you don’t get it”, you conclude – it’s obviously something hard and/or confusing to people. Speculate with Bitcoin – this is the only solid application in addition to illegal stuff or payments where you don’t want to expose your identity easily like on porn sites or similar.

      2. Nikolay you are correct, but you will no doubt see these issues reverse in the future, as usage and competition within the Bitcoin space grows (and it is growing exponentially).. Bitcoin is superior to credit cards.

      3. Murl

        Who said anything about Coinbase? I can transfer Bitcoin to you, to Amazon, to Honda, or to the owner of a house I’m buying for such a small fee its almost irrelevant. I think its 0.01% if I recall correctly. Coinbase is nothing more than the most attractive present day option for Bitcoin payments. A centralized platform for a decentralized technology will not stand the test of time. Do you still use Napster?

        “Bitcoin will never be attractive to the consumer as it’s hard to get, it’s slow, it cannot handle real-time commerce (with it’s limitation of 7 transactions per second globally), the theft, and others”

        Wrong.

        Bitcoin is CURRENTLY unattractive to the consumer for the reasons you stated. Technology does this funny thing, it’s called improving. Were you around in the days of dial up internet? How about the days of the internet before Netscape came out with the internet browser? Youtube sure wasn’t possible in those days. Netflix could not have bee done. Yet here we are talking about game changing, billion dollar technologies that were not possibly in 1992. Imagine that.

        If anyone here doesn’t get it, it’s you.

      4. I don’t get it?! 🙂 I’ve been in Bitcoin since the very early days, I’ve worked on Bitcoin projects (I’m a developer), I’ve owned a pretty successful Foreign Exchange business back in Europe in the 90s, and I have worked at some of the largest e-commerce retails in the States as the architect. I come here with my real name and face unlike most of you who are afraid to reveal their identity as then their opinion will lose any weight given the lack of authority on the subject. Coinbase and BitPay will not be the only options on the table for merchants. BitPay has a fixed fee pricing, for example. Circle will be another big contender, but I think eventually PayPal will offer their solution and will possibly acquire one of the three – my bet is on BitPay. Best of all would be that those who have implemented PayPal’s Express Checkout already, don’t have to do anything and will automatically get Bitcoin. But with David Marcus leaving PayPal, given he’s been a holder of bitcoins and a vocal proponent (i.e. helping his own wealth grow), this may take some time to happen.

      5. Nikolay just because you have an impressive portfolio does not mean that your pessimism for Bitcoin is necessarily correct. Since your a problem solver your pessimism is probably a good thing as you need to keep your eye on potential problems.

    1. I agree as China as always completely ignores the rest of the world, but usually on Thursday/Friday there’s a drop over there (except last few weeks though), so, we’ll see.

      1. we are talking here about chart analysis, technical nature. so my perspective is a completely different one as your. I would never say that daily news are influencing the bitcoin price in any way. you see in every line about the bitcoin the price goung down or up. I personally dont think there were any news these year influencing the price. its all chart technic what we see.

        so you see that the point of perspective. so please stopp repeating here bs rumors about china or adoptation. about bitcoin. it has its value in the blockchain, you cant reproduce, without the infrastracture. its not about your cash back thing.

        but now we could get a serious boring talk again about fibos retracement.

  3. Lucky Luke

    Hi Enky!

    do you think that it is possible to reach the 1000 USD limit in this year?

    I made a huge investment last time and I would like to exit without losses if it is possible.

    Thanks!

  4. Elie

    Breaking News from China, another Block on Bitcoin?
    This caused the dip you saw few minutes ago on Bitfinex from 637 to 624. Now at least Bitstamp and Bitfinex are at the same rate!
    I guess with this negative chinese news we could reach the 500s afterall. Putting buy around that range at 567. What do u guys think?

    https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Ffinance.caixin.com%2F2014-06-12%2F100689938.html&edit-text=&act=url

    1. Arthur

      I say Go Bears, Go! lol

      It’s plunging deeper than I thought, but it looks like the 580’s are the next stop. Happy trading, guys!

      (I’m doing nothing, still 100% in coins)

    2. Elie

      Bitstamp hit 606 and did not even rebound. Usually their is a slight rebound but nothing at all this time. the volume of buyers is very low. Then it is safe to say that our buys should be put in the support zone at $517-$592 price range that Enky stated earlier. Retesting the VWAP of 2 months of 517 does not seem impossible anymore to me now. I am putting my buy around there, maybe at 527 +-. I was aiming for 565 but not sure if a rebound will happen there ..

    3. Arthur

      According my predictions based on The Anathema Theory (after the 50% rise from the break of the Bearish Triangle, price stays relatively flat for several weeks with a light downward trend, then the Mega Bull Run will start), the low of the downward trend is now reached. Let’s see if The Theory is seriously tested now with a bounce on 596…

      1. Arthur

        If 580 doesn’t hold, The Theory will get a scratch… Happened one time before which caused a delay of 2 weeks for the Mega Bull Run to start. Since we are 2 weeks only in the ‘flat’ period, and since they are supposed to last 4-6 weeks, a further drop might happen to postpone the Mega Bull Run a little.

        Macro TA. 🙂

      2. Elie

        yeh Arthur 596 didnt hold and now Bitstamp popped past 580 were already at 572. Looks like ill wait to buy at the VWAP mmmm or 560 still undecided.

      3. Arthur

        “Looks like ill wait to buy at the VWAP mmmm or 560 still undecided.”

        VWAP it is… 🙂

      4. Anathema

        Lol Arthur, you’re giving me too much credit. By the way, here’s a picture that shows it much better than mine: https://www.tradingview.com/i/5G67X1xt/

        I’m also 100% in coins now, i wish i could buy more. I do have some fiat left but it’s stuck in swaps (but at 0.7% per day that’s not that bad).

      5. Arthur

        @Anathema: credit goes where they belong, it was a cool piece of research and I think it is very likely to happen. And yeah, on other places they found out the same thing.

        I’m hoping someone could figure out what is the most likely top of the next bubble, after which a correction of 25-50% becomes likely. That’s where I would like to trade… My research says 5,000-7,500 range is where the bubble will burst again, but that’s a rather rough calculation.

      6. Your “research” for 5,000-7,500? Any references? Let’s not talk fairy tales here. This year, if it passes and stays above $1,500, it will be a miracle. Even Enky doesn’t think it can exceed $3,000-3,500 as most optimistic scenario for 2014, you’re doubling that – not gonna happen!

      7. Anathema

        I was just looking at this speculative chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/7LcxELXd/ . Sure it may be wishful thinking, but it’s holding up so far. It also estimates the next high at just under $3000 in August this year, and the one after that at $10K in June 2015. Of course that’s all based on the assumption that the pattern will repeat itself.

      8. Arthur

        Hi Nikolay, it’s more likely than you might think. Thank you for asking about my research, I’m happy to share it.

        First take a look at the performance of bitcoin since the start. You might have seen this here before. I compared bitcoin towards the classic S-curve in which disruptive new technology grows 10 times a year on average, before mass appeal is reached and growth dies out. Bitcoin outperforms this S-curve TWICE (which makes sense, since things can go faster on the internet).

        2009: 0.00 -> 0.01
        2010: 0.01 -> 0.30 (30 times)
        2011: 0.30 -> 4.70 (15.7 times)
        2012: 4.70 -> 13.25 (2.8 times)
        2013: 13.25 -> 732.00 (55.2 times)
        2014: 732.00 -> 3.000 (4.1 times, based on Enky’s lower prediction)

        Bitcoin is growing over 20 times a year, it’s becoming a fact I’m afraid… On a sidenote, I never doubted Enky’s end of year prediction, I’m only trying to figure out when and where the top of the next bubble is located, after which a very likely correction of 25% – 50% will come.

        Secondly take a look at previous bubbles, their doubling in price-speed, and the corrections that followed.

        June 2011, doubling from $16 to $32 in 4 days, correction of around 90% followed, if I remember well.
        April 2013, doubling from $130 to $260 in 7 days, correction to $55 on April 16, 2013 (-/- 79%).
        November 2013, doubling from $581 to $1163 in 13 days, correction to $380 on December 18, 2013 (-/- 67%).

        Thirdly, take a look at the moments when bubbles appear, and how likely it is that prices go up let’s say 10 times in a short time. One example, the last time that happened was October 4, 2013 ($120) -> November 29, 2013 ($1200).

        Now throw all this together, and try to make a prediction with almost no presumptions. Can it go from 600 to 6,000? Sure it can. Is the market ready for it, technically? After a long bearish correction, yes it is. Are the fundamentals still OK for bitcoin? Yes they are (VC investments are already 35% higher than last years’ total, numbers of bitcoin users are still growing rapidly, no less than six billion dollar companies are accepting bitcoin this year (last year: zero), the number of ATMs/BTMs installed are growing immensely, etc. etc.). Does 5,000 – 7,500 for a bubble top match Enky’s prediction? Absolutely, since previous corrections were 67% – 90%, it takes a correction of less than 50% to come back in line with Enky’s prediction.

        The only thing I’m still researching is when this top might appear. Roughly I would say somewhere in August.

        Do you see now where I’m coming from? 🙂

      1. Arthur

        “Payment Clearing Association stressed bitcoins risk

        Payment Clearing Association members also Bitcoin Chinese fire coins nets 15 bitcoin trading site payment methods were reviewed to exclude the possibility of access to the network of institutions to become merchants, and to review the results of feedback to payment Clearing Association.”

        And so on, and so on. And with the rather low volumes these days we immediately notice that a few FUD traders are panic-selling based on this BS.

      2. Mike

        Thanks, Authur. That does not sound like anything significant. At this point, any reason to steal the coins from weak hands is fair game… Good day, Authur.

    4. Arthur, the mistake you’re making is that Bitcoin was a disruptive technology last year, it’s not disruptive anymore. Launching more ATMs, implementing a few more ways to spend bitcoins, etc. is nothing new. What you can see in the graphs is low trade volume, much lower than last year. Also, the general public isn’t much interested by all indications. Although the big mouth of Barry Silbert is constantly exaggerating that Wall Street is interested (although his fund is at a significant loss already), I don’t think smart money is interested in something without an inflow of dumb money as money is best made from fools. Again, just imagine if I asked you about the price of Bitcoin in the beginning of December 2013 about now – I’m sure you’d had 10-15x higher than what we have now still following patterns. So, yes, there are patterns, but main thing to remember is that China is driving this market still and it was repeated many times that the Chinese government does not like rapid increase in price as this is how dumb money reallocate to smart money and they still misrepresent themselves as people’s republic as it serves them better, so, they need to pretend they do stuff to protect the public although we’re all confident that the Chinese officials personally are heavily involved in Bitcoin and manipulate the market to maximize their profit.

      1. Arthur

        “Arthur, the mistake you’re making is that Bitcoin was a disruptive technology last year, it’s not disruptive anymore.”

        My opinion is indeed the complete opposite of what you’re saying here. For me bitcoin stays a disruptive technology until all use cases it has to offer are in full use all over the world, replacing current technologies and creating new at the same time (think micropayments, for example). Then, at some point in the far far future, bitcoin, being a mainstream technology at that moment, will be replaced by a new disruptive technology.

        What is very clear to me though, is that bitcoins’ disruptive powers are only at a starting point. And so is its price. We ain’t seen nothing yet, so to say… At the same time I’m aware though that bitcoin might fail somewhere down the road for technological or social reasons. But if it doesn’t, beware…

        I will never declare your opinion being a mistake, by the way. Because only time will tell who’s opinion is closer to the truth. So I’m inviting you, Nikolay, to revisit this topic somewhere end of August, and have a beer on our silly bitcoin. Whether its price be on 900 during a slow trip towards a miraculous 1,500 end of year, or whether it is on 5,200, going down from a 6,600 top two weeks earlier… 🙂

  5. croll83

    Will this china news bring the price down really? Are we really still looking at China Gov?

    1. Artenais

      Seems a forced dump to bring price into the 520 range. May be indicative of another rally to sell higher?

    2. Mike

      I have a feeling that various Wall St players will be eyeing this pot for purchase — at a discount, to be sure. They won’t then sell these until the market has done some running.

    3. Elie

      well that news alone will bring us to touch the VWAP @ 517. im confident that we will reach around that spot. I put my buy at 517+10 =527$ .we had to recorrect and then we had those 2 badly timed news to hit the market. everyone found an excuse to sell

      1. Arthur

        Exactly. Much ado about nothing… But hey, whatever happens, you’re in the game for a good deal. I’m almost getting jealous, I should have kept my 660 cash to make a few more 0.1’s… Ah well.

      2. Elie

        I bought in @ 590 and gained 0.521 BTC. Good job guys. But I still do not feel we are done with this dip. something tells me we might retest the VWAP @ 517. The rebound has not been that strong on Stamp and Bitfinex. I will watch the volume for the next few hours and decide if I will resell and put a buiy at the VWAP.

  6. Mike

    This dip is pretty deep. I should have kept my powder dry… 560s seems like a good place to reload or load, period, but let’s see how far the rabbit hole goes…

    1. croll83

      Also here, not bat at all! sold @615, bought @570 now full in coin… should happen everyday we would be whales in a while 🙂

  7. Mike

    Wow. Did you see that snap back from 550 to 595? Straight up. Powerful. How funny would it be if it keeps going up from here to 710… ?

    1. Arthur

      Won’t happen I’m afraid, not the right time yet. Doesn’t fit ‘The Theory’ either lol.

    1. Elie

      good job! Well that trade was a SAFE one thats why we all almost here made a profit. When in doubt only trade safe trades and wtv is on the same route as Enky’s advice.

      Now the real question will the market move up over the next 48 hours from this point to 750 OR dip down to 517$ over the news that the Silk Road coins are going to be sold out? I think that this news will dip the price for sure a little bit more.

      Opinions? What do you think Enky?

      1. Arthur

        For the moment I’m firmly sticking to what I call The Anathema Theory, as far as I can see it’s the most likely thing to happen in the next few months. It dipped a little lower than I thought, however within the timeframe there is enough room to recover and have our Mega Bull Run end of this month/early July. To cut a long story short, VWAP level is possible and with another China rumor and bad auction news, it will be reached. I’m not betting on it though, in this period the market should be building trust and prepare for the aforementioned run.

    1. Elie

      Bitstamp is at it again.
      Okcoin were not that much into it. China is actually very bullish

      1. Elie

        there seem to be another pull back happening now. We might see 550 or lower a LAST time before we head upwards!

  8. Amit

    What do you think guys, are we going deep down again? it looks like this but i may be wrong (:

    1. Mike

      Trading is an inexact science and don’t let anyone else fool you that it’s not. That said, there is very little reason for any more significant pull back than 550 area.

      1. Elie

        Mike, Amit and Arthur I am also very confident that we will not see 550 again (of course chances I am wrong are their), but other than history repeating itself and the fact that today we failed to break and revisit the 550 old low, we also got the W for winner symbol on all the 2hours chart. if you pull back you will notice it.

        The middle of the W , i mean the peak is at 620 on Bitfinex. Anyone who traded on sold at that peak and bought ath the low right after made a very good trade. unfortunately I was working at that time and was not able to make the trade back and forth:( Lol

      2. Elie

        Forgot to add that the W symbol in the past has always been a bullish sign. We should head upwards to 630-640 if not more within the next 48-72 hours if not less. If we dont then I guess it is bad news and a little bearish. will see

      3. @Elie I don’t think you’re seeing what’s going on here. Those who will buy those coins are already on the Bitcoin markets. They need to drive the price down selling their existing ones so that they can acquire tens of thousands at a decent price. Why the heck would they let Bitcoin price go up and acquire coins for million dollars more? Just saw somebody drop 1,000 BTC at Bitstamp. It’s only gonna get worse! Plus, people may need cash to buy more coins. Who knows, but you’re completely ignoring what’s going on in the next 10 days! This isn’t just some passive news, we’re gonna see some action and nobody has interest of price going up RIGHT NOW. You get why Bitstamp, which was $10-15 above Huobi is $50+ lower nowadays? You think people in China don’t know about the auction? Well, first, they do, but they are not gonna participate (as most of them can’t anyway). Second, they are inexperienced enough to see what’s going on – that’s why they’re stubborn and fly above Bitstamp.

      4. Elie

        Warning of flash crash:

        The USD swap rate on finex is gone through the roof today and is now about 0.5% daily!!!

        That means anyone who has to renew their loan or wants to buy on margin will now be losing $5 daily to fund every $1000 they have in long positions or $3 dollars daily per bitcoin @ $600.

        Either this is a very ingenious way to squeeze the record high $25 million currently tied up in (most likely negative) long positions or the lenders are factoring in the risk we see a flash crash now that the market looks bearish and very, very over-leveraged

        Either way there is one very strong indicator lenders are worried.

    1. Elie

      yes I am now slightly bearish for the short-term (1-2 weeks till June 27 – Auctioning of SR coins) especially after seeing the down turn of Bitfinex last night where we hit 578 and I am sure we will break 575 in the next 48 hours. I sold last night when I saw that and now I am fully in coins.

      I set buys at 550 and 520. Their are now more buyers than sellers and the buyers are not satisfied with the current price after all those news and the June27 deadline. So nobody will really buy in, everyone is waiting = price will go down. I am sure now that 517 VWAP will be tested soon!

      1. the dynamic of the fall predict a soon rebound and a fall to 510 possible. forecasting the fbi bitcoins sell, we could get some cheap one for 450. so get some cash free 🙂

      2. Elie

        good lord, it started very slow and low volume to go down but now its freaking insanity. I removed my buy from 550. I think we will crack that one wide open and hit the VWAP.

        bcmine u might be right, we might crack the VWAP too temporarily and hit 450 within a flash of a second then head up. good think i cashed out in coins fully at 600

      3. Elie

        I wish Enky would post here to tell us what is his next forecast. Bitfinex flashed crashed to 522 and seems 550-540 wont hold for long. we barely bounced from it – actually we did not bounce. So if the VWAP fails to hold us at 520 we will crash at 450-470?

        Enky can you post anything do u think we might see lower than the 400s?

      4. B. Mums

        I agree Elie, I think we’re at least testing ~$520 because the bounce from 540 a couple hours ago wasn’t very strong. We’re hovering where our last low was before rebound, that tells me a lot. It doesn’t look like what we wanted to happen.

        Not that I think this will happen, but I definitely think it’s a possibility…I’m beginning to wonder if we’re going bearish again already. If you mark lines from the last 3 peaks, 1200, 980ish, then the recent 680 top, they line up rather well… What I’m saying is we could POSSIBLY still be in a bear market and this past jump to 680 was a huge bull trap. That scares me because following the lowest support lines that we’ve hit over the past many months, the next low looks like it could be the last ATL Enky mentioned before we went bullish, a drop to ~$280. That’s just food for thought, I think all exchanges need regulating before we actually see prices above $800 simply due to greed. People can’t help but sell at 800 if they bought in at 400-500.

        I think Enky only wants to post when he’s sure of what’s going to happen in the short-term future. He probably doesn’t want to screw people over with constant short-term targets/assumptions. We are still in the range he last predicted, above $508/517. If we hit $520 and there’s no strong rebound then I’m sure he’ll be posting.

        I think the last bit of china news caused today’s big sell-off and I think Elie is right in the fact that the price will continue to drop, mostly slowly, until the feds coins are sold on June 27th. I think that’s where we’ll see our push into 700, if we see one at all.

      5. Elie

        finally bought in at 555 after seeing some movement and buys. will see what happens during the next few hours. 555 is a good range to fully recorrect. Now we can go upwards to 570 where it is now and even reach 600 if possible. As Enky said anywhere above 580 is good.

      6. Arthur

        “What I’m saying is we could POSSIBLY still be in a bear market and this past jump to 680 was a huge bull trap.”

        Funny that you mentioned this bull trap, it crossed my mind today also. My (rather rough) lines don’t show a real bull trap but I’m guessing that has to do with working with daily closing prices. That way I miss a firm spike here and there that appeared during the day.

        I wasn’t overly happy with the price going below 580 (nor was I overly worried since we still have 2-4 weeks for the Mega Bull Run to start) but I’m definitely trading again when VWAP decides to break. Fingers crossed guys!

      7. Elie

        hey guys, i bought at 555 but selling gradually now all the Bitcoins at 665 for a little profit. But yeh im selling before another dump happens tonight or tomorrow! The bounce of 550 was very poor without volume. No demand so far.So lets stick with the VWAP plan for now!

    2. Mike

      I’ve noticed 500 blocks on the sell side in the last several days. Another one was sitting at 566 and it was surprisingly quickly snapped up. Lots of bearish sentiment in the last 24 hrs. I wonder if the time to move up is nigh.

  9. Sebastiaan

    I’m new to TA so i don’t know if im right about this. Can someone please give me some input?
    http://nl.tinypic.com/r/jtxbw2/8
    I think this is a symmetrical triangle of continuation. This would give us a top for the next bubble of about $3650. We are now hitting the 50% retracement of the top from the first of june and this is the same height of the trendline. We should get bullish soon

    1. Mike

      There’s some healthy buying all around. I’ve been holding… No playing around here. Too much bear sentiment the last few days. Time to think bull and I don’t mean bs.

      1. Elie

        yeh i sold out too early I have some remorse LOL.

        I am just looking and sitting right now planning my next move. There is still 2 weeks before the SR auction + right now after we hit the previous high of 590 on Bitfinex we went down as I thought down to 575, I still think its a trap and we will retrace down to 560s and in the next few days more dumps will happen and we will retouch with the VWAP @ 520. But we will see what happens in the next 24 hours. It is still too early. The market definitely lost steam. We are not able to get back to above 580 or 600s definitely a bearish signal for teh short term. But the long term is still very bullish.

        By the way this spike to 589-590 is similar to the one we saw after the recent to 575. From 575 we went up then couldnt break past the previous high then we went down and then the dump were in followed. I think we will see a lot of those stair alike dumps till we reach the VWAP or the 400s.

    1. Elie

      oh man thats great news, means Second market and others will take the coins and auction them but off the market. Looks like now I just to find a sweet spot to buy in before everyone knows about this!

      Thanks Mike.i owe u 😉

      1. Mike

        No worries. With the way the price of bitcoin moves these days, news won’t likely do much. The price wlll move pretty independently. When Wall St — i.e. Hedge funds – move in bitcoin will move violently and irrationally. Momontum players have gotten out of tsla, nflx, etc. Bitcoin will be made a legend… All IMHO.

    1. Amit

      Guys, is the bullishness over? what the hell is going on? it looks like we are going back to the starting point…

      1. I think Enky gave us perfect support levels to work with for the time being and his last update mentioned that he was stil bullish (although I am eagerly anticipating his next update). I’m currently looking to go long in the 515-525 range on bitfinex if we get down that far again, if that breaks, then it looks like next support level will be at 490-500 although it seems unlikely.

      2. Elie

        damn alarm just woke me up, seems were going sub 550 to retest 520 in the next few hours like predicted 🙂 earlier and i will wait before buying in i guess, volume is too low and sellers are dumping their coins.good thing i sold out earlier.

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