Short Term Update: H2 chart

chartIn my last update I had suggested a decline in prices in the $520-$580 price zone and it duly happened:) why? Well sometimes i forget that this market is very sensible to news with a strong tendency to overreact.  It is enough a modest bearish news that the majority of the trading community lose control to their emotions and cannot make up their own minds, feel free to call it the sheep effect:)

As you can see in the attached two hours chart now XBT/USD is bearish in the short term with the weekly VWAP acting as resistance at about $600.
The target for the next week is to move again above VWAP to regain a bullish position, while an immediate further correction below $520 would be bad IMO with some bearish implication also for the long term trend.

To conclude, i expect a rebounce up to $600 for the next 72 hours.

125 thoughts on “Short Term Update: H2 chart

  1. Frank

    Totally agreed Enky, this market is driven by wannabe amateur traders googling their facts together. My advice to whom it may concern: Buy in at important lows, forget about bitcoin for a year and then take a look at your profit.

      1. Arthur

        He said ‘wannabe’. With 4 months and 50% profits you’ve proven to be a veteran pro, buddy. 🙂

      2. vanen

        actually, i upped my gains recently, so i’m not at 50 % anymore ^^ yet i did my second loss trade a few days ago when i could have gained money again with just a stupid mistake …. (5 freaking dollars of loss, just seeing my bitcoin wallet a tiny bit emptier traumatized me AGAIN)

        it’s just that i don’t like people who are full of themselves. i think, even though we “wannabe amateur traders” can be dumb sometimes, but there is no need to categorize (i never NEVER act accordingly to only news , i watch every move i do very closely and act more according to the charts than news actually , since i always gamble with 100% of my wallet ), but we still play our role in bitcoin mass adoption, and even though he or some people here may be sooo much above us, i feel we are still all wannabe amateur traders here and it feels very hipsterlike to say that (omagad i’m so much part of the eliiiite), because i don’t think anybody here in the comments does that for a living and did that for years. maybe i’m wrong, but i’m sure there is still some truth behind what i’m saying

    1. Enky

      Yeah, sometimes i’ve the feeling of wasting my time following this market but you know…i’m a bitcoin enthusiast:)

      1. Elie

        Enky I think we will stay sideways between a high of $600 and a low of $520 until the Silk Road Auction on June 27. There is still 2 WEEKS in that case and since you confirmed that were stuck with newbies then I think the best is to trade between lows and highs and make some BTCs along the way! 😉

        So you think we will reach $600 within the next 72 hours but you dont say if you expect us to break through it. I think you meant we will reach it and fall back since it is our resistance right?

        For 520 VWAP I will put some bus there as I am 100% sure we will be getting and rebouncing strongly. I see a lot of resistance at 490-500-510. Happy trading everyone 😀 time to make some more Bitcoins

      2. B. Mums

        Elie, I don’t think Enky wants to push anybody in any certain direction so he left it open ended, wondering the same thing we are wondering…Will it break though and go up or not? He thinks it will hit 600, which is beyond the 580 resistance we’re dealing right now, and that’d be a good sign. Or will it head sub-520 and all this jump to 680 stuff was just a HUGE bull trap? As stated a few times now, with new, young traders that are inexperienced, the whales can make them move in mysterious ways.

        I think the price is at quite a critical stage and I have no idea what will happen…Either this has been a bull trap and we’re still headed down, possibly to hit ~$260-280 (which would be extremely scary IMHO and I think a lot of people will develop FUD) or the market will prove itself as bullshit, and break 600, then 650-680, and within the next month, above 700.

      3. B. Mums

        After my last post I looked at BTCE and Stamp…Both have been trying to surpass the 680 resistance 3x, and it’s sitting right up there now for a 4th time, now headed down slowly. Hmmm…I really think we’ll see a jump or plunge in the next 24 hours. I think I’m going to hold for now but I may change my mind, it’s scary and tough as heck making a choice with this much uncertainty.

      4. Anathema

        @ Elie:
        “So you think we will reach $600 within the next 72 hours but you dont say if you expect us to break through it. I think you meant we will reach it and fall back since it is our resistance right?”

        In the screenshot with this update it says that the target is to move above 7-days VWAP (which is $604 in the screenshot). Even so, i just sold a small portion of my coins at $580-585 to give me the chance to buy in again lower in case of another flash crash.

      5. Elie

        I just got back home since I have been out most of my day and say that we are already at 592 with descent volume. Now I am 100% in fiat so I guess I will just wait to see if we break or dont break 600. If we don’t break then I will just wait at the bottom 🙂 if not well I will just take a small loss.
        I still think were 2 weeks away from the Silk Road June 27 deadline and sheep people who dont understand much think that auctionning of Bitcoin is a bad thing while clearly it is not, in that case I still think we will not get past 605. But hey anything is possible with Bitcoin. We will know in few hours if I am right Lol or wrong. Have me in your bitcoin prayers Lol
        PS: If i had bought at 550 fully I would have still dump around 590-605 all my coins. Thats how I would have played it.

    2. Arthur

      “or the market will prove itself as bullshit”

      Funny typo. Unless it isn’t, then it’s hilarious. 🙂

  2. I’ve made some of my biggest profits taking a short position on this ‘bearish’ news. Bring on these ups and downs!

  3. I hope you’re right so I can dump my coins and buy them back below $500 around the SR auction. The funny thing is that China finally went down and then Bitstamp started to climb up. It seems that Bitstamp wants to be Huobi’s slave no more, but it lacks the volume to make a statement although many think Huobi and OKCoin are still faking volumes and placing phantom orders.

  4. B. Mums

    Wow, for the past few days I was actually thinking the exact same as you just posted Enky. I think I’m starting to get a good feel for the market now and a better understanding of how people are thinking. I have always seen people as sheep. There are two types of people out there: Leaders and Followers, and there are billions and billions more follows than there are leaders in this world.

    I did cancel my 525 buy-in and bought in at 550 for a very slight gain. I was considering selling and setting up a new buy in the 520 range on BTCE, but I feel at this point the market is more likely to head up tomorrow morning (first workday of the week) than down. I hope I’m right otherwise I’ll be feeling sad again, missing out on free gains, and worried that BTC will turn bearish once again and if that does happen….who knows how low it could go?

    I’m hoping for the best!

  5. DJustin

    I’m with Nicolay. I will be waiting for a dip around 500 before I buy again. This trade might take awhile.

    1. Elie

      same here, we still have 2 weeks with sheep people and manipulative whales playing with everyone’s emotions. Trading range is definitely between 500-600.

  6. B. Mums

    Someone threw up a buy wall at 591 on BTCE a couple times, took advantage of it and sold into it. It’s looking good right now but not enough volume so I’m still betting on a dip. If I’m wrong I buy back in just after it breaks 600, after I’m sure it’s not a break n’ dip.

    1. B. Mums

      I forgot to add the 1d chart is looking like a selling phase just ended, so we’ll see what happens these next 12-24 hours.

  7. Arthur

    With the price back in the 600’s, it fits my July: Month of the Mega Bull Run scenario again. I was surprised a little by the 530’s where I expected 570-580 to be the lowest point, but so far no bull trap to survive first, luckily. I’m expecting a side-way movement from now on, with a tiny chance of another little dip in this week. However, I hope people realise that this Silk Road [private] Auction has nothing to do with dumping coins on an exchange. On the contrary, it wouldn’t even surprise me that (some of) the winning bids are coming from people that are willing to pay a bonus on top of the current market price. Anyway, in general, the price should slowly go back to the high 600’s to start testing the 700’s next week. Then, firework. Just my humble opinion, no trading/investment advice whatsoever. 🙂

    1. You are determined the Anathema theory will happen aren’t you 🙂 I think your right, so thinking of buying more coins.. In regards to thee recent auction of Bitcoin by the feds it wont be a conventional auction (ebay style). The participants have to make one blind offer and the biggest offer wins the stash. People are suggesting that the price paid will not be revealed unless the winner states how much they paid. But who is to say they can be trusted to tell the truth. They may well say they paid more than market value to get the price to artificially inflate (possibly off loading Bicoin in the process). Saying all this though I think it will be likely that they will be bought for above market price. Imagine accumulating all this Bitcoin without effecting the price hence the advantage of getting it cheap so there will be a mirgin of gain to who ever buys it. A lot of investors are also wary of all this Bitcoin the Fed has, I think your right Arthur, sexy price explosion for July.. Investors will be able to relax after this sale. Maybe they will need to see some price stability after its sale though.

    2. Arthur

      Haha, yeah, but I’m the first to admit there is a little wishful thinking mixed with my expectations. I mean, there’s TA and there’s TA, and we can choose to put the lines where we want, and see things as we like to see it. That’s why I’m trying to add the long term fundamentals and some historical evidence of bitcoin, like I described before, to make a more proper prediction for the near future (months, not days).

      What I mean is, if history of five years bitcoin tell us that the bitcoin price jumps up over 20 times per year on average, and there is no flaw found in the protocol so far, and the market is still rapidly growing, who am I to say that we should be bearish for the upcoming period of let’s say 1-3 years… It just makes no sense at all. There will always be short term things happening that will try to lower the speed of the bitcoin express, but that’s OK. The overall picture is good, and that’s what counts to me. And if the bull run top is on 3,500 in December, I’m like ‘whatever’. Just for fun I’m trying to see some patterns, and bringing them to you guys here to check what other people are thinking… 🙂

      1. For sure, the market cap is tiny, there are thousands of companies all over the world with a larger market cap than Bitcoin. To me it seems the uptake is slow and under estimated. The reason for this is because Bitcoin is unlike anything we have seen before. Peoples perception of money is ancient. To be honest it has taken me 6 months to fully internalize Bitcoin’s structure and how it works on the surface, this is without knowing anything about the code or how to mine it. Many investors are from the older generation, they might have additional problems conceptualizing Bitcoin.

        Summer times may well be the periods we see price rises. Im not sure about you but I hardly here anything on forum posts or any of the Bitcoin news sites of how the travel industry will greatly benefit from Bitcoin. Young people traveling the world like gap year students and who are most savvy about new technologies will be more inclined to use Bitcoin on their travels. Saves having to keep changing currency. Any money lost on the spread converting fiat constantly for different currencies will only have to be done once! And even at the end of the holiday if you take the Bitcoin home it can still be used there. Add this to trasaction fees the travel industry will save and its a fooking killer application of Bitcoin. Hence, why I believe we will be seeing price increase spikes over the summer and as more and more Bitcoin ATMs get installed. Travel industry seems to be more interested in Bitcoin than the porn industry at this point.

      2. Arthur

        Agree Peter, there’s a world to win in general, and travel is one of the major wins indeed. From students to business people. I’m a frequent Asia traveler, and after each trip I end up with money from Indonesia, Nepal, India, Malaysia, Bangladesh etc., or even a mix of it. Some countries I might, or might not revisit so it’s partly lost money. And as you said, the money exchanges take their parts too (I compensate by changing on the black market like carpet – and jewelry shops though). Can’t wait to spend my bitcoins during international trips!

        And as long as companies like Expedia are taking the first steps and help the ‘network effect’ forwards, I’m foreseeing a bitcoin price that can only go one way in the future: up.

  8. Elie

    I see some ok volume at the resistance which is not such a big resistance afterall but I doubt that with such kind of volume you will see a break at 660 or 680. The buyers are very slow at buying in and it is not like the previous rally we had 2-3 weeks ago.

    Of course this can change by the hour with the traders we have so we will see then when we get to the previous highs.

    I bought in at 605 with 50% of my stash and leaving the rest out for now for any surprise dip we will see in the next few days as I still think we could see some manipulation happening

    1. Elie

      nvm sold out at 610. no way were breaking for now the 600s. Big rejection occured, seems 610 is like our previous resistances at 680 then 660 etc. which we failed to break respectively when we were at the top.
      I think a drop towards retesting 550 and 517 is very possible and I will stay out of buying unless at those levels ur unless we break 610

      1. Elie

        as you wish 🙂 I just don’t feel comfortable with the current market. Makes me remember when we were at 680 and tried like 5x to break through it. The feeling is overall slightly bearish.

      2. I also made a similar trade, no loss of $. I too believe a drop is more likely than breaking the 610 resistance.

      3. B. Mums

        I’ve been thinking this the entire time, since BTCE never broke 605. I’m in fiat waiting for that drop but will be monitoring closely tonight.

      4. Elie

        I am gonna do a TA chart to show you guys what I look for and how I had a bigger hinch that the break upward will not happen past 610 after sometime.
        If you look at the Bitfinex 30min chart, you will notice that we have bombarded the 600-610 resistance SEVEN times in the past 12 hours. That’s a lot, this is exactly what happened when we were at 680, we spent there 4-7 days hitting the resistance SIX times to break and everyone was hoping it will happen. Anyone who bought at 550 and held till 610 and sold there made a good 60$ on each coin, im jealous. Now if a whale will get impatient again and sell/cash out is very likely as it happened at 680.

    1. Digital River is not a billion dollar company and, in fact, this is a PR stunt as they are not doing so well nowadays. In the past, they were one of the few options, now, they are pretty much the last choice in mind.

      1. Elie

        yes but the more merchants, the better. Digital River deals with software licensing and Microsoft product downloads. Its great to see them accept Bitcoin.

      2. @Elie The old contract with Microsoft is the only reason they are still around. Again, they are not accepting Bitcoin. They are allowing third-parties to sell their customers’ bitcoins and give them the fiat, i.e. the more merchant implement this half-ass Bitcoin acceptance, the more selling pressure there will be. So, don’t get so excited, this is good for the bubble, but not good for the price if this really isn’t just a PR stunt.

    2. Arthur

      Sorry Nikolay, technically you’re right. The billions are going through their hands, but cannot be considered their revenue.

      “Digital River – a company that processed more than $30bn in online transactions in 2013, has announced that it has added bitcoin as a payment option for its online merchants.”

      This makes the news even better though, since not just one brand, but several well-known brands have their name linked to bitcoin. As a network effect between customers, this is huge long-term.

      1. For sure, im just not sure how long speculation will last, I mean we still see speculation in gold so why is it different to gold? In my opinion the end game for Bitcoin will be as the no.1 world reserve currency.

      2. Very true, although I keep thinking it through in my head and I don’t think there are any obstacles for Bitcoin becoming a world reverse.I think there will be plenty of bumps but nothing solid enough to stop Bitcoin. To me its inevitable.

    3. Arthur

      “the more merchant implement this half-ass Bitcoin acceptance, the more selling pressure there will be.”

      Here I have to fully disagree though, for 2 reasons.

      1. Full-ass acceptance sometimes starts with half-ass acceptance, and is (almost) always better than no-ass acceptance. Like when you learned how to swim, and you didn’t jump in the three meter pool the first time and tried the one meter pool first.

      2. In my economy class at school (looong time ago lol) I learned that consumers cause demand, then sales follows. Growing numbers of consumers causes growing demand, which in return causes prices to rise. And products with rising prices are carefully sold, and hardly dumped. Have these simple economical guidelines changed since I went to school?

      1. Yep, you often see the pressure selling thrown around but its FUD. Seller pressure might only have an effect if there is an over bought bubble? Please correct me if i’m wrong.

      2. Now that is quite interesting actually, during the next down trend, merchants accepting Bitcoin will be an escape point for holders. There has been an argument that Bitcoin entices hording, but it will be interesting to see if merchant sales increase as a result of the next down trend.

      3. Arthur

        “Seller pressure might only have an effect if there is an over bought bubble?”

        Exactly, but that’s in a market ruled by speculators that make the majority of that market. But bitcoin is so much more than a speculation tool. Speculation is needed to get things going, but when more and more merchants, consumers and later governments and pension funds see the benefits of using bitcoin for one or multiple of many reasons, the % of speculators will drop. And speculators will not be able to make the market anymore. Note that this is very different from how the price of gold is determined! Bitcoin has way more use cases, and speculation will, at some point, not make the market anymore, is my fair belief.

        There’s still a tough ride ahead of us, but every (group of) merchants bring new groups of consumers who will convince new merchants etc. etc. The classic network effect till mass adoption is reached.

        Lasting selling pressure from merchants while mass adoption is growing, I just don’t see it… Of course they will be tempted to convert to fiat in a market going temporarily down, but in its 5 years history, bitcoin went mostly up in an effort to reach mass adoption. Merchants would be out of their minds ignoring these facts.

      4. For sure, im just not sure how long speculation will last, I mean we still see speculation in gold so why is it different to gold? In my opinion the end game for Bitcoin will be as the no.1 world reserve currency.

      5. Arthur

        Gold, because of its limited use cases, is mainly a speculation tool. Bitcoin however, can be used as a store of value, an asset, a commodity, a currency, a secure transaction tool, you name it. All financially related business can be linked to the bitcoin protocol. And indeed, it might end up being the world reserve currency. Or even take over every single currency that we know of. By that time, the speculators will not make the market, since there is no market anymore. And with the growth of bitcoin, the development of all its use cases, the influence of speculators will diminish, since other groups with different interests will take over. And with the market cap rising, it will be harder for ‘outsiders’ to make destructive moves (let’s be honest, we are still very far from that moment, bitcoin is still a penny stock lol).

        As I said, it will be a tough ride to get there, and it might never happen for several reasons. But technically it’s possible.

      6. Very true, although I keep thinking it through in my head and I don’t think there are any obstacles for Bitcoin becoming a world reverse.I think there will be plenty of bumps but nothing solid enough to stop Bitcoin. To me its inevitable.

  9. Elie

    Hey guys this is my TA view on the current situation compared to the previous situations, it is my first one so let me know if something is not clear. Notice the red rectangle or cloud on top of each resistance and notice how they all end up with a big dump of $90 or $60-50. Their is a strong possibility that we will see the same scenario in our current situation unless of course a whale decides to push us up. But I am still sticking with my plan for now with buys at 445-550 and another somewhere at 500-522

    1. Arthur

      In my master plan for July 445 wouldn’t fit, and I don’t think there’s a bull trap going on either… 550 might be possible, but I think it will stay rather flat in the upcoming period, as I said before, with a tendency to go up instead of down.

      Take it for what it is though… Just my opinion not based on daily TA. 😉

      1. Arthur

        Haha, ok got it. Reason why I’m thinking we will now start moving sideways, is because this period looks TA-wise like a classic ‘flag’ or ‘pennant’ to me. No break of the bullish trend at all, just a period where trust in the market is rebuild for the next bull run. Lower trading volumes, downward tendency. With bitcoin such flags in the same type of periods last 4-6 weeks at the most. Since we are now almost 3 weeks in, we are around now supposed to go move sideways, get out of the flag and create the other flagpole upwards.

  10. DJustin

    Still with Elie on this one. Enky was right with the bounce back at 600 but I sold at 600 from 630, I missed the 570 buy but I have been expecting a drop to around 500 and it went the other way. Still waiting for a drop, 500-550 seems like a good price right now. I just hope I don’t have to buy back in at 600. To much stress for nothing. Lol.

    1. B. Mums

      I’m feeling ya man, except I was a bit dumb and sold at 584 and never bought in lower when I had the chance, a couple times. I kept looking for that drop to ~560 that never happened.

      Considering this…

      “To conclude, i expect a rebounce up to $600 for the next 72 hours.”

      We may soon find out where we’re going. I just don’t see the volume on the charts to push beyond 600. Thoughts?

      1. Elie

        were very close to a break out after few whales came to the rescue. Although I do not think we will get very far with this break up as we will crawl up very very slowly but if thats the way the market wants to go then I will jump in after we reach 620.

  11. Arthur

    SlipperySlope (Stephen Reed) from bitcointalk, who I highly respect and is researching the same thing, just posted this. Funny that we seem to match rather closely, since I’m expecting a top in August at 5,000+. 🙂

    “Yes, I have been buying fractional bitcoin every workday since March at my local Bitcoin ATM because the Log10 difference from trend has been largely negative. The current price is $585, and the expected price according to the average trend is $1,624 [I’m quite sure Enky would agree with this, since he mentioned 1,500 a few months ago]. Supposing the bubble peaks in July, then I expect a selling target price of $4000-$5000, and higher if the bubble is postponed.”

  12. Elie

    very interesting development so we reached 619 on Bitfinex by crawling slowly up there (seems the only one other than China being slightly bullish). Of course as expected the buyers were greated with dumps from sellers which of course didnt end up well, especially for few whales that tried to buy up by 100BTCs several times but didnt do much = At this point it is a good confirmation we are NOT going up.

    Thats what happened where we were at 670-680s spent few days there crawling our away to the resistance and past it then crashed down 54$ to 620.

    I find this VERY interesting, why? well say we stay at 606-620 range another day or two trying to break up and we fail, then seeing what happened at 680 we can very well crash badly down to $556 = $610 – $54 so we land right at $556 or 550+- interesting pattern isn’t it?

    Updated Chart:

  13. B. Mums

    Seems we still can’t quite break the ~610 resistance after many more attempts, but it’s still trying. The anticipation is killing me – You KNOW a major price fluctuation is about to occur.

    1. Elie

      what the hell stepped out and came back home and its retesting. Its very annoying at this point that I am fed up.I dont know why buyers on Bitfinex are trying to hard to buy into the 600s that much. Were litterarly CRAWLING there, even if we break past that what kind of rally were going to have? Were most likely going to stop at 630 and 640 where were going to encounter lots of resistance and dumps. I still think whales will pull a stunt on us before June 27 and we will head down.

      Anyways look for the break UP at:
      620 on Bitfinex
      616 on Bitstamp

      1. Mike

        Sorry to see you frustrated. Frankly, I don’t think this is a good time to be trading. I am thinking that with so many expecting a major run like the Second Coming, there will be many frustrating movements before it takes off. New traders will find out making money trading is a lot harder than it looks…. my bitcoin are parked, with the side breaks on and the wheel chokes in place… 🙂

      2. Elie

        yes I know its better to sit down and watch whether your with your fiat or full in coins.right now it reverted back from 619 to 612 with a possiblie crash of 52$ downward to $550. Very complex indeed with a changing volume and mood. Seems OkCoin (China) is leading this failing rally. I wonder when they will give it up. Anywho I have my alarms on in case we break 620 on Finex or in case we crash to 550. I have my buys set at 550 🙂 Good night 😉

      3. Arthur

        “I still think whales will pull a stunt on us before June 27 and we will head down.”

        Very well possible. “OMG they will dump 30,000 coins on June 28!” or the likes. Not sure if the effect will be huge though, that’s why I think 550 is the ultimate bottom for such a dump.

        For the moment I’m kinda glad/even surprised a little, that my predictions based on comparison with three previous (pre-) bubble periods, are so far rather spot on, except for the spike down to 530’s, that looked a little overdone to me. Recently I learned that the ‘flag’ period lasts around 3 weeks in theory, and with bitcoin it lasted 3-4 weeks and one time 6 weeks because of a firm dump that caused a delay of a few weeks in the next bull run to start. This time there is not really a delay as far as I can see, so we should be on the brink of the next, huge part of the bubble by now, or next week. Let’s see if it’s true.

        And looking back, I should have kept my 660 cash a little longer for a buy back at 550 or the likes, but as I said a few times before, I want to learn about bullish periods first, so I’m tr(e)ading carefully. Also, I’m not considering myself a genuine daytrader anymore, I’m now looking for the bigger picture to anticipate on. That’s why my plan is to sell let’s say 50% of my coins at the bubble top and buy back around the lowest point of the corrections several weeks later. I’m expecting a correction of around 50% this time. Previous corrections went from 90% to 79% to 67%, that’s why my bet is on 50% this time. Let’s say this next sprint brings us up to $5,000, I’m selling there and buying back in the $2,500 – $3,000 range. That’s the plan anyway… 🙂

  14. My gut feeling is telling me were going to move slowly up with a possible break out up. Can’t see it going down. I finally open an account with Bitstamp 🙂

  15. Arthur

    Talking about learning… I came across this piece of text, and found it quite interesting.

    “The psychology of support and resistance corresponds to the vicious emotions of pain and regret. Traders holding losing positions feel pain and, looking for the first available opportunity to lessen their pain, abandon their positions. Traders who missed a good opportunity tend to feel regret and look to trends from the past to find new opportunities to make up for missed chances in the past.

    Even in a flat market, these emotions can be prevalent. Traders may practice buying at the lower edge of a range and shorting at the upper edge. In uptrends, bears who engage in short selling will naturally feel pain, and bulls will experience regret that they did not buy more. Both will be eager to buy, if and when the market gives them a second chance, which will create support during investors’ reactions in an uptrend.

    Resistance indicates bulls feeling pain, bears feeling regret and both camps ready and waiting to sell. A downward breakout from a trading range will cause pain to bulls who bought, and will make them eager to sell during the first market rally so that they can get out even. Bears will regret not shorting more and wait for that same rally to allow for a second chance to sell short. The pain of bulls and the regret of bears in a downtrend translate into what is referred to as resistance.”

    1. Arthur

      lol, I just knew you would like this, Peter! I found it cool to read about this important part of trading: the human factor behind support and resistance. Quite revealing. When I started trading in February, I rather quickly side-stepped these emotions (at least for a major part) and then you quickly learn about how to go against the market (= trade on others emotions).

      Anyway, as I think that these emotional cycles are everywhere all the time in trading, we’re never finished. They will also appear even in Mega Bull Runs. But I think these Mega Bull Runs are prominently driven by (evergrowing) new groups of investors jumping into bitcoin. Like I explained before, it started with a few amateurs who spend $10.00 or $100.00 like 4 years ago, now we are on the level that several dozens of VCs and millionaires spend a part of their money in bitcoin. The next batch of people will contain hundreds of millionaires and several risk fund managers, untill after a few years the pension funds and governments step in with their billions and billions and billions of money. That’s why bitcoin makes such firm jumps up sometimes, until mass adoption is reached. Somehow at some point the time is right for those groups to jump all in bitcoin at the same moment. And boom! there we go again…

      1. Absolutely. Nice that you can elaborate and put down in words these psychological and economical concepts.Will it work in practice? Cant see why not and if that is the case the safest (but not necessarily the best) approach to investment Bitcoin is let it sit in cold storage for 5 years 🙂

      2. Arthur

        Haha, thanks Peter. You’re too friendly! Just being a huge bitcoin fan, with a background in financials (ex-accountant, ex-business controller) and currently IT Business Consultant with a focus on financial procurement & approval workflow systems. And I love doing global research! For example, another thingy that I just found out and added to the ‘world-to-win-list’: did you know there are a stunning amount of 12 million millionaires worldwide, with their assets expected to rise to $55.8 trillion by 2015, and that’s NOT including their primary residence (Wikipedia, who picked it up from the World Wealth Report)? Now that gives another idea who might be investing in bitcoin at some point…

        And yeah, the concept of bitcoin struck me as rather brilliant, so when I decided to step into the cryptocurrency arena last year, I just knew it will be for 5-10 years. In the most positive scenario we already described here before, it might be forever lol. 🙂

  16. I think it will be around forever, Bitpay for exmaple has decided to market its company solely on Bitcoin hence the use of the name ‘Bit’pay. The amount of investment they have got you would think they would air on the precautionary side and name their company something generic in terms of cryptocurrencies. To me this suggests that Bitpay is taking a very long term view of Bitcoin and building its brand around Bitcoin itself is a bet on this. I take it coinbase might have the same view, but they know there will be many Bitcoin skeptic companies and people, so in light of catering to their view they are pitching that crypotcurrencies in general will always be around and if Bitcoin dies there will always be another, which they may not personally take the view but will cater to the uninformed. I compare Bitcoin to how how Andreas Antonopoulous does, it is a dumb system, it is merely a system of logging which address own which x amount of coins. Just as the internet is dumb, the internet merely sends bits of data around and is agnostic to what is contained in this data. Now since Bitcoin has got the lead on the networking effect and has its most important attribute (its limited supply) set in stone there is no chance that a competitor will come and take that away. Its like saying something better than the internet will come along. Bitcoin now can have protocols on top of the protocol like colored coins or side chains. In light of all this I would suggest bitcoin will be around forever.

    1. itsme

      I agree, even if “forever” is a bit optimistic. The universe will not last that much 😉

  17. Arthur

    With 24hr trading volumes dropping fast currently (on Bitstamp: 680) started, the last few days before the jump up, trading volumes dropped dramatically too. I remember seeing Bitstamp 24hr volume on 1,300 or the likes just before the sprint. It might be the time to start thinking about going back 100% in bitcoin IMHO, to not miss the creation of the flagpole going up…

    1. Arthur

      Tsss, that whole first and second sentence came through crippled. I meant:

      With 24hr volumes dripping fast currently (on Bitstamp: lower than 4,500) I think we can take that signal as an indication that something is going to happen anytime soon. During the last few days before the first lag of this bull run (450 to 680), trading volumes dropped dramatically too. I remember seeing Bitstamp 24hr volume on 1,300 or the likes just before that sprint. It might be the time to start thinking about going back 100% in bitcoin IMHO, to not miss the creation of the flagpole going up… Just a tip.

      1. Elie

        remember were in a congestion now between 604-620 . Also if you refer to my chart were almost going to touch the descending line from the high of 672 touching with the high of 620. So yes some kind of break might happen up or down or straight congestion without any clear route since sheep traders cannot seem to make up there mind LOL.

        But as you said low volume and with low volume Bitcoin Market is prone to easy manipulation since it is opened in the weekend. We might see some movement reflect this in the next 72 hours depending on whales.I am aiming more now to a congestion with a possible dip after several days of stability. Will see

      2. Arthur

        I don’t know Elie… Trading theory says that a ‘flag’ on this moment in time lasts 3 weeks (+/- a few days) and we are exactly there on June 21/22. I compared this with previous bubbles in bitcoin history, and it’s correct (except for 1 time, that lasted 6 weeks because of a very firm drop that needed to recover). Theory also says that ‘flags’ are hardly trend-breakers, so we will go up from here after a few days being flat. Thing to watch for is the trading volumes dropping, like what happened in the 440-450 range… So I thought I should share this information here. All theory of course, as bitcoin might choose another route just to annoy us traders lol.

      1. Arthur

        Yup, and the price stays flat. Forgot to mention that. Volumes dropping to extremely low levels + flat price, like in the 440-450 range. Time to get back in coins…

    2. Arthur

      Another thought I would like to share now is why I think a next bubble top in the $5,000 – $7,500 range is likely, after which it is corrected downwards of course. So far I’ve made calculations based on doubling factors within certain timeframes etc., which is too boring to explain here. But here’s another one, that will give a rough indication why $5,000 or higher for a next bubble top is likely.

      June 2011 bubble top $32
      April 2013 bubble top $260 (8.1 times the previous top)
      November 2013 bubble top $1163 (4.4 times the previous top)

      Now take the lowest factor, and multiply the last bubble top… It ends up on $5,202. The highest factor will bring us to $9,420, but I’m having hard times to believe we will go there after a splendid 2013 that gave us a 55 times ROI. That’s why I’m staying in the lower half. Again, this is very rough, but it fits the more specific calculations rather well.

      1. B. Mums

        I think the one thing you’re missing in your numbers is the exponential curve of the falling price jumps. Here’s what I mean:

        “June 2011 bubble top $32
        April 2013 bubble top $260 (8.1 times the previous top)
        November 2013 bubble top $1163 (4.4 times the previous top)”

        April 2013 was 8.1x previous top, November 2013 was 4.4x previous top, So I’d suspect a top of around 2-3x what we saw in November 2013, max, as it follows this trend a bit closer I think.

        You are very optimistic Arthur, but I hope you’re ready. 🙂

      2. Arthur

        Hi B. Mums, I know what you mean, that’s another way of looking at it. However, in the S-curve theory I’m working with, this effect is compensated by time. Between June 2011 and April 2013 is more than 20 months. Between April 2013 and November 2013 is 7 months. Between November 2013 and August 2014 (that’s where I put my bubble top for the moment) is 9 months. The longer a bubble takes to form, the higher it will (have to) go to compensate for the under-the-S-curve-trend period. That’s why April 2013 was 8.1 times, and November 2013 was 4.4 times ‘only’. Just because of the shorter timeframe. Now with 9 months (presuming we are currently forming a new bubble of course) the factor is closer to 4.4 or a little higher, than it is to 8.1. I hope you get what I mean?

  18. Mike

    Nice discussion, gents. I’m a bit surprised that the price didn’t drop below 600 in the last 2 days. It almost seems that it is suspended in air in a manner that it hadn’t in the past. Just making a behavioral observation. While I’m a technical trader I’m a behaviorist. Whomever starts the next run, once the run begins cash will come out of the woodwork and the chase will take a life of its own. I take for granted that there an amazing amount of cash in the sidelines. With every technical breakouts I will expect to see traders jump in in droves. What are your thoughts?

    1. Arthur

      Funny, Peter and the undersigned touched this subject too. Just scroll up a little, maybe it’s an interesting read for ya. 🙂

    1. Arthur

      34% now. June 13th, BitFury pulled a substantial part of their mining power from Ghash, probably they are still pulling more. They also suggested to plan a meeting in July with other pools and Bitcoin Foundation to discuss these issues. So for the moment there’s nothing to worry about, as far as I can see…

      1. Looks like Bolivia banned Bitcoin this more cornering to me. I know it goes against the ethos of Bitcoin but centralized mining doesn’t concern me at all. If the miners turned evil and double spent which can happen in ‘theory’, they create a price of plummeting Bitcoin once its been sussed what they are doing. Then they will have expensive hardware that’s mining worthless Bitcoin ans thus damage their business model. That’s why I’m confident miners wont turn evil if they reach 51%. Banks and states are more concerning to me.

      2. Elie

        im back, yeh looks like something happened the GHASH dropped from 43% to 35% now.
        Arthur, for the low volume theory it does not always work as you see, what happens usually is that whales come in and save the day then break us up past the resisance and initiate a rally. But in this case the whales did not show up just because they cashed out earlier. I prefer to cashout when I see low volume, observe the Bitcoin Market from the outside in fiat, looking for the pullout. If pullout does not happen, and a whale comes in I will jump right in. I hope you did not fully jump in to coins as you said 🙂

        Seems my 1 week prediction to 550 is still on track as scheduled. I really did not believe we had a huge change to break bullish the 620 resistance we had and after our ATH 683 peak. We were just in a downtrend as I said earlier after the earlier fall to 550. I am still thinking that we will retest 550 again this weekend and the low volume and sheep traders will continue to hunt us until June 30 (when SK auction results will come out).

        For sure after June 27 we will start to go up again and June 30 we will rally again to 680.
        For now I set confidently my buys at 550 and waiting.
        I will post an updated TA this weekend again when I have a minute.

    2. Arthur

      Yup, you’re right Elie, theoretical rules are not cast in stone lol. I zoomed in on a few bitcoin flags and some end flat, some end with a final drop indeed.

      And I’m 100% in coins since the 440’s last month. Did two little trades though during the 450 – 680 jump; one with tiny loss, one with tiny profit so I’m good. Next trade will be on the bubble top (presuming we are currently building a next bubble that will bring us to new highs in August), anticipating on a possible 50% correction.

      And I spend my time reading, learning the trading theory, and making calculations. And posting here. 🙂

      Happy trading and good luck, Elie!

      1. Arthur

        And back on 580! Let’s see if this support line breaks, then 550’s is the next stop. Timeframe-wise 550 should be the lowest point also, otherwise we will surely get a delay in the start of the next bull run. In a way I would be fine with that delay, because then the theory says that the bubble top is slightly higher lol… 😉

        Anyway, let’s see what happens. Can’t help following it closely, although I’m not trading.

  19. DJustin

    I really can’t decide what to do right now so I’m back in 100%. I have been on the wrong side of this market for a little while and will stay in until I get back on track. Grr..

  20. Arthur

    More and more bidders show up for the Silk Road Auction:

    I found these quotes very interesting:

    “It’s just one of those big plays that you have to be involved with if you’re a big player. […] It’s very rare that you have the opportunity to source such a large block of coins.”

    “We’ve seen a lot of new investors come to us to talk about the auction, so I think it’s good for the community.”

    My gut feeling says that the price being paid for these coins will not be way below current marketprice, probably even a bonus on the current marketprice will have to be paid. Furthermore, the parties that lost on the auction, will be dissappointed and will try to grab their coins elsewhere (on exchanges). This whole process will most likely feed the bull run of July.

    1. Elie

      Yes this is one of the best publicity for Bitcoin ever. The auction was featured on CNN Money last week and it got lots of comments I would say and attention.

      It will be featured again obviously and even on TV hence creating our next bubble right after. I also agree that the price paid will actually be above the current market price, depending on the bidder they might decide to even reach the previous highs of 680, 700s or 800s. If say the auction closes at 800 then I am confident that we will rally to the 800s as investment firms would have set the bar and price for bitcoin! 🙂

      For this weekend low volume will unfortunately continue, meaning retesting previous lows. The bad part is that the low volume started yesterday and we did not even hit the weekend yet 😦 so their is a chance of seeing 520 if this continues. So i decided I will purchase at 550 with 50% of my fiat and the rest at lower if it ever goes there. Will see when I get to this point.
      Another thought, is the closer we get to the SK auction the lower we might go, time will tell though

    2. Arthur

      Yeah, one of the best publicity for Bitcoin ever indeed.

      You know Elie, another thing that crossed my mind just now: there’s at least one party (Binary Financial) that aims to grab the whole bunch of coins, meanwhile stating “We expect on the day for there to be increase volume of trading and heavy selling pressure.”

      It might be true (selling pressure), but I’m also quite sure this is a strategy move to try to influence the market (make it go down). Because they know that they have to outbid any competition on any other pack of coins, meaning they willl have to pay the highest average coin price FOR EVERYTHING. This works the other way round compared to ‘quantity discount’, unless auction management has different rules set up for this. But I don’t think so, they just want the highest average coin price, I’m sure, and that’s why they divided them in packs of 3,000 coins each. The highest price for a 3,000 coins package will most probably set the price for the whole bunch of coins, for those parties that wants them all. Clever move of the US Marshals… And the Binary strategy of spreading FUD probably won’t work.

      Just noticed bitcoin price jumped to almost $600 again, I wonder where that came from.

      1. Elie

        very interesting, well if there is high selling pressure that day, I will be at the bottom buying LOL since im fully in fiat now.

        Yes I saw a spike to 595 but this is a normal retracement to retest the previous high at 596, usually happens all the time after a drop. Right now would be a good time to sell and go in fiat during this retracement bcse after that their will be another dump.

  21. Correct me if im wrong but im sure I somewhere on reddit that they cant bid lower than the 15% market value? Does anyone have anymore insight on this? The reddit member was quoting an article from What I find very intriguing is that the leaked email listing the bidders, included in this list, one someone representing one of the largest banks in France

    1. Elie

      Peter its very possible, I have seen lots of posts on reddit about this. Maybe u can try searching reddit for it. probably got lost in all those posts

    1. Elie

      yes I noticed that there was some pump few hours ago to 595 which brings it close to my descending line (see the last TA chart I posted here). I am expecting a dump since were touching the red line (more likely), otherwise it will be a pump.

      1. Same. I’m full in coins just waiting to buy more when there is a dip.. Been tempted to do more day training but I feel like a monkey looking at a computer screen lol

    2. Arthur

      And the trading volume is dropping rapidly again… I’m not saying anything now… Few days ago I thought it might indicate the start of lag two of the bull run, but it didn’t happen, obviously. And with the Silk Road Auction nearing, I think not much is happening before that. Not when it comes to a presumed bull run, anyway. Let’s see… I might be completely wrong again lol.

      1. Elie

        Lol yeh if it werent from the sheep people scared about the SK auction we would be in the 680s-700s by now.
        i want my 550 per coin and waiting patiently.

      2. Same. I’m full in coins just waiting to buy more when there is a dip.. Been tempted to do more day training but I feel like a monkey looking at a computer screen lol

      3. Elie

        Lol well I am watching the world cup and i put alarms on Bitcoinwisdom in case their is a dip or huge spike. If by the 25th there is no dip I will buy at the price then.

      4. Arthur

        Just a thought, but when in the upcoming days rumors start popping up that bidding parties are indeed willing to pay a bonus on current market price, the market will react accordingly and go higher, my guess is towards 680. Otherwise a final dump to the 550’s is likely. Mixed feelings…

    1. Arthur

      What I make of this? Another person that wakes up to finally see the bitcoin S-curve developing? We are discussing these matters for a while here already… In fact it was Anathema that posted about it first here several weeks ago, so that’s why I call it jokingly The Anathema Theory sometimes lol.

      However, in reality it’s nothing new. Peter, you might remember I pointed you to the BitcoinTalk topic where a guy called Stephen Reed, since December 2013, is trying to figure out how this S-curve is developing over the years. With an eye on that topic every now and then, I’m making my own calculations, and share them sometimes here. If you missed the link I gave you, I can post it again, if you like. Quite interesting topic (50% of the posts can be skipped though, you have to filter it a little for yourself when it derails lol)…

  22. Ok awesome, I seen it was getting some attention on Reddit, so thought it might have been a new angle on, not that I get all this economic stuff lol.. I may start reading up on economics after I finish my psychology degree. Toss up between economics and philosophy. Anyhow nice to know its consistent with your s curve theory and the Anathema theory 🙂

    1. Arthur

      Hi Peter,

      You might want to start here, a rather easy to understand introduction to the S-curve.

      “The shape of the technology lifecycle is often referred to as S-curve.”

      Then you might want to read Stephen Reed’s topic on BitcoinTalk, where he is using this S-curve as a template to make predictions about the bitcoin price on macro level.

      “In this multi-year thread I will update and monitor a particular model that assumes a million dollar maximum bitcoin price. I chose a high price because plausible arguments can be made that bitcoin will eventually replace fiat currency worldwide.”

      Since you and I share the same type of philosophies about bitcoin long-term, I thought you might find this interesting. Happy reading, Peter! 🙂

  23. Elie

    >>> ENKY’s TWITTER: BTC/USD WEEKLY range forecast is $575-$635 | Strong support at $530

    >>> My TA Chart:

    Remark: I bought in few days ago at 595 before the spike, If 635 happens I might sell there to try buying lower but that depends on how close we are to the Silk Road auction and the volume. I think that 550 is becoming more and more unlikely to happen as Bitcoin is holding high so far. Will on the 25th and 26th.

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