Long Term Update: Daily Chart

chartI think that this market is still in a phase of moderate correction, not severe at all. Support for this week is at $ 575, in case of break of that support this market could reach the bottom of the price channel that I have shown in the attached graph, at around $ 530 which is the price level of strong support that I indicated in my last tweet.

I include with this chart (btce prices using metatrader 4) a proprietary volume oscillator that i developed and it is very powerful in spotting trend reversal, at the moment it is bearish.

I say again that it is important to stay above $520 for the long term, any weakness below that price level would have bearish implications for the long term although I can accept a quick spike below that price level but  it must be temporary and not for a prolonged period of time.

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86 thoughts on “Long Term Update: Daily Chart

  1. Arthur

    Thanks Enky, as always. To the moo…!!! Uhm, not yet, let’s be patient for a while. 😉

    The weeks after the Silk Road Auction will tell us where we’re heading, I’m quite sure. When the winner(s) are willing to share what they paid for the coins, they will make the market move again. And since I’m expecting the winner(s) will pay a bonus to the current market price, no doubt they will be more than willing to share that information… So they can see the market go up towards the price they paid, and beyond if the market ignites in a new bull run. What I mentioned before, (some of) the auction bidders that didn’t win should start buying their coins on the market. Let’s see, I’m looking forward to July.

    1. That is logical, but will they be trusted to state the truth of how much they paid? Sure they will, because under the freedom of information act you will be able to find out by applying to the relevant government body responsible for the auction to reveal how was actually paid. And if the company that wins gives false information they could put their company in bad light in the future if they were lying.

      1. Arthur

        Exactly. And coming back to what we discussed in the previous post here, here’s another article of someone who is contributing to the ‘network effect’ (look at his # of followers!), meanwhile explaining about the past, current and future status of bitcoin as he sees it. Nice read.

  2. TheGeorge

    Ooooh, nice indicator! Any chance of sharing the proprietary volume oscillator indicator with us or a link for download?

    1. Not for the time being, this indicator will be for sale at a reasonable price when i’ll be enough confident of its true performance.

  3. Elie

    wow what a reversal overnight which renders the TA Chart I posted yesterday useless a little, I sold out around 590 with a slight loss. China is playing too much with the market and cannot decide which direction they want to go. So far following HUOBI current stat, I see that a pull downward towards 550 is now on the table (550 is where the buyers are waiting with strong support), but of course that could change drastically any moment in function of the volume. As Enky stated 530 is also possible, this depends strongly on China at this point since were following them

    1. To produce 1 bitcoin 500-600 usd are needed, depending how much you’re paying your power bill.
      I don’t think miners will allow the price to drop under 500$ to avoid going in the red with profitability.

      1. B. Mums

        I’ve never thought about this Enky, but what you’re saying is the mining portion of the Bitcoin industry/community really has that much pull/weight? So the miners alone are a huge part of where the supports lie?

      2. If they want to survive they have to act to sustain the price. IF difficulty isn’t dropping it means that so far they are ok and not yet in the red.

  4. Elie

    I seriously cannot wait to reach $700 – 800 to donate to Enky a good amount for his help and advice.
    Based on his advice and my basic TA coupled with the news out there I have re-corrected my Chart to the following, Sunday night was taken into account to give an overall now better picture of where were heading:

    https://www.tradingview.com/v/R3JaQV9K/

    Settings buys at $558 on my end. I am not considering 530 on the table unless the bears really want to make a panic attack but with the red line crossing I do not see this on the table YET.

    1. Amit

      Big Like!!! Enky thank you so much for all,
      I also think donation is a must!

      Elie, i think that if nothing happens (no whale close to shore) after the auction we will see a drop to 530…

      1. Elie

        yes it is very possible but 530-540 should be our last option. But we can talk about it here if you want when we reach 550+- first where I put my buys currently. At that time we can weight the volume and other indicators and of course the whales coming or not to the rescue.

      2. Elie

        Something to look for I have observed in the last 2 hours, an almost flat line on HUOBI which if I refer to the past will end in a $24-25 correction.

        (A) On Bitfinex that would mean a dip from $588 – $24 = $564. And $564 is a lower peak we touched last week. So we will retest $564 and then recover to $575
        OR
        (B) touch $564 and continue our descent to 550.

      3. Amit

        i’m starting to have doubts about bitcoins dropping, are you still bearish on the short term?

      4. Elie

        We reached 575 and yet I do not see a good bullish spike of buyers coming out of it, in other words I do not see a good demand for Bitcoin, which means buyers are waiting at lower prices as Enky also confirmed. So for now I do not expect it to hold for the next 24 hours. 564, 550 and 530 are better bet. Bets are there for me right now. Enky suggested around 530 if we break 575.
        Were almost June 25th which leaves us 3 days still, which is a LOT of time to still reach the bottom 🙂 I would say by tomorrow and the 26th morning we should not risk it more and we should start buying at the price Bitcoin reaches so we dont miss the next leg up.
        Feel free to share your opinion folks.

      5. Mike

        Amit,
        I am seeing the same thing. I think there may very well be a need to shake out the Bubble Watchers. The auction may be a good cover to accomplish that. We shall see. I think the Bubble run may not happen for sometime, perhaps for another few months. I just have not seen the basis of a large run, yet.

      6. Amit

        yap, i think we are going to keep going down to Enky’s support 530-540, i will be bearish for the next few days

    2. There is only 100 bitcoin ATMs world wide. In the UK alone there is 376,229. Once we start seeing these ATM get into the thousands and giving people more access to Bitcoin and as company acceptance starts to grow more, we shall see investors moving in.

  5. Arthur

    Well, well, well… It decides to drop below 575 anyway. Maybe Mike is right ” I think there may very well be a need to shake out the Bubble Watchers. The auction may be a good cover to accomplish that.”. There is still enough room for a sprint to start in July (another 3 weeks to start sprinting still fits The Anathema Theory), however I have nothing against a next sprint to start much later since they tend to reach higher levels, as I explained before. We’ll see. 🙂

  6. Whats caused this latest dip? I don’t think its a bear run or a correction from the recent bull run, im inclined to say this is purely manipulation. Both second market and Pantera have a sizable amount of Bitcoin. Would it suit them to dump and make the price drop before the auction as to make the bidding competition bid lower for the coins? Plus, if they know they are going to bid big with a high chance of winning they may dump some of their holdings knowing they will buy them back cheap at the auction, cheap as in buying a large amount without causing a price rise. What you guys think?

    1. Arthur

      Not sure if 30,000 coins in auction is worth all that effort, since it takes a substantial amount of coins to move the market over several exchanges. You might be right though, the bitcoin market is not that big (I still consider it a penny stock), and open to a certain amount of manipulation. My gut feeling for this moment though, says it is the normal FUD of short-term traders. FUD because we heard nothing so far what bidders are going to do, and why would these bidders open up their cards anyway, since competition is no doubt looking, and listening!

      And my 2013 tax return came in yesterday… I’m going to use a part of it to buy a few extra coins, probably on or around the day of the auction, where the price might drop further to the low 500’s.

      1. Nice, I would like to buy more but I literally cant buy anymore but I cant 😦 had to sweeten up the wife to get what I have at present and basically cut out my luxuries to justify it, money that would have gone on silly things. Its funny though cause over the 6 months my mentality on Bitcoin is changing, its almost like I view the money as if its in a bank. Only difference is the money in my bank is subjected to inflationary pressure. Yet, Bitcoin is going up and down like a yoyo (and will be subjected to deflation once mining stops) sometimes in the red and sometimes in the green. Keeps me occupied as im easily bored, money well spent I think lol.

      2. Arthur

        Haha, seems like I’m a little more lucky with my wife, at least when it comes to bitcoin. I let her read the Diamandis blog article two days ago, and in fact it was her suggesting I should buy more bitcoins! 😀

  7. Jan

    Dear Enky,

    where do you have your stop-loss for your buy-in at $583 (if I recall correctly), or do you employ such a tool?

    Best regards,

  8. B. Mums

    Well, I KNEW I should have sold at 585 but I’m putting my money on a drop to at least 540 now. All exchanges down to 555-565 right now and the selling shows no signs of stopping yet. I think this is a slow decent until at least Friday.

  9. B. Mums

    I was just thinking and I have two interesting points, in regard to Bitcoin adoptability in the U.S., one good, one sucky. I don’t think anybody has mentioned these yet.

    Sucky scenario: With our Net Neutrality laws under threat by the blood-sucking telecom companies, if Net Neutrality was axed, I’m afraid of what could happen…Mega crash and failure of Bitcoin without U.S. backing? An article on Coindesk (which I did not thoroughly read) claims there are work-arounds, but I have my doubts.

    Awesome scenario (eh… for Bitcoin anyway): The stock markets and the NASDAQ have been on a bull run that’s lasted since the midst of the recession here, the past 5 years. I believe housing prices are still heavily inflated as well. I’ve seen a lot of homes for sale this summer, many million dollar homes too. I drive through the richest townships in the state during my commute. That being said, and the way people gravitated towards gold in the late 2000s… Imagine Bitcoin, especially now that hundreds of millions of people have heard about it.

    1. B. Mums

      Derp…In my last paragraph I meant to mention that I think we’re headed toward a 3rd part of this recession that started in 2008… Check out the articles on the web regarding Chinas massive domestic debt problem, too.

      1. What I find interesting people are comparing Bitcoin the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Gold_Rush same kind of atmosphere in California only in silicon valley this time. According to the Bitcoin foundation it considers worst threats to bitcoin than that and their consequences I brifely read the report and does not mention net neutrality as a threat https://bitcoinfoundation.org/static/2014/04/Bitcoin-Risk-Management-Study-Spring-2014.pdf governments seem to be there main concern.

      2. Elie

        You are absolutely right B. Mums, were going for a double-dip recession globally. The signs are there, soaring food prices, soaring price of silver and gold etc. I wonder what will be the effect of this recession on Bitcoin. Will it spike or people will cash out from Bitcoin?

      3. Arthur

        I’m not an expert on this subject, but I noticed Mr Diamandis is selling some of his gold, in favor of bitcoins. And since he has tons of followers on his Google+ account, he might make a few of them do the same. And it makes sense too, since an investment in gold is long-term not that good.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_as_an_investment

        “In his book Basic Economics, Thomas Sowell argued that, in the long-term, gold’s high volatility when compared to stocks and bonds, means that gold does not hold its value compared to stocks and bonds:

        To take an extreme example [of price volatility], while a dollar invested in bonds in 1801 would be worth nearly a thousand dollars by 1998, a dollar invested in stocks that same year would be worth more than half a million dollars in real terms. Meanwhile, a dollar invested in gold in 1801 would by 1998 be worth just 78 cents.”

  10. Elie

    Following up on my earlier post here, I was right we went down by a decrement of 24$ from $588 – $24 = $564. Currently we did not experience any significant bull spike other than retouching previous high of 575.

    This means that their should be another drop tonight from $560 or $564 to the range of: $536-540 (another $24 drop). That’s where I will set my buys. Frankly I do not see that putting a buy at 530 would worth it as we might never reach there and I won’t take a chance for few 0.x BTC.

    1. Amit

      I also didnt buy yet, still waiting for the real drop…hopes that it come tonight
      the dudes in bitfinex are always to bulish for me (:

    2. Elie

      So last night we did not go further down, but after reaching 560 in Bitfinex we decided to retest our previous high of 575 which is now acting as our new resistance. And like at 620, 680 and 660 it is a very strong resistance which we will not be able to break up. We already tested it 6x since last night which is a good sign were going down towards 550 first and then 540-530. I am starting to see that the weekend COULD be also bearish then on June 30th we flip to the Megabulls.

      1. Elie

        I think its a rumor and not 100% confirmed yet. But I am sure this is coming in the fall of 2014 and if that happens price of Bitcoin will spike to $1500 at least.

      2. Mike

        Nowhere in the article says it is confirmed but the mere possibility is truly astonishing. This was my dream of dreams scenario. I can just see. Instead of QQQ, Bitcoin could be TTT. FYI there already is BBB. Like I said Barry Silbert has been talking up the Wall St involvement in Bitcoin as the next stage but of course he is a salesman I give him that. Still I thinks he isn’t totally hot air. Wow I all I can say even if it is just a rumor.

  11. Elie

    Just wanted to warn you folks as usual 🙂 that HUOBI flattened out again for a 3rd time in the past 7-10 days which points to a leg down in the next few hours (2-6 hours). We should be going down from 576 – $24 = $552 On Bitfinex. Stamp will probably reach $540. If you want to see for yourself you can open https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/huobi/btccny and see the flat line on the 30min chart and compare it to previous flat lines. Clears signs that you can read of charts if you traded for a longtime hope it helps.

    1. Amit

      Hi Elie currently bull signals on all exchanges, especially on bitfenix what do you think can they break the down trend?

      1. Elie

        I am not sure yet if it is sustainable. IF we break past 585 significantly then I will fully buy in. If you refer to my TA chart you will see the red bearish line we need to break, so far were still under it. China is leading this rally right now (Huobi) and I dont like them as they are always bullish and they tend to confuse the market. Anyways will report in a bit if I change my mind.

      2. Amit

        i bought when i figure all the exchanges are passing 575 – it was 576 on bitfenix
        didnt go exactly by my plan but better late than later….enjoy your weekend

      3. Elie

        HUOBI is the exchange leading the rally since lasts night, their are very emotional traders and if something does not affect “china” they will not really care for it as much and will remain partially bullish more than the American exchanges. However if it were a bad news regarding China they would have brought the hell down of this market to 530 if needed. I just hate China badly Lol.

        So far China is close to 600 and Bitfinex at 585 but could reach a max of 590 (the previous high we had). 590 is still under my red bearish line. We need to get back to 600 for us to signal a bullish breakout. So far the American exchanges seem to want to stop at 585-586

    1. Arthur

      Nice find George, that article. Not sure if these Bitstamp guys are right with their ‘under-market value’ prediction, but we’ll see. It is not explained why they expect that to happen… I’m expecting a price with a bonus that the winning bidders are willing to pay, since these bidders wouldn’t be able to buy these rather huge amounts of coins on an exchange without moving the market upwards.

      Anyway, Auction Day starts with a somewhat ‘neutral’ $580 and 24hr trading volumes are still very low (if not extremely low!), so I’ve decided to put my buy in for the tax return money I’m throwing in, at $522.50. I’m expecting some fluctuations today during the auction, and those fluctuations might include a (hopefully) short-lived spike down into that direction. When a dump to that magnitude doesn’t happen, I’ll try to buy in this weekend, hopefully in the $550 – $600 range.

      Fingers crossed, happy trading today guys! 🙂

      1. Thats because Bitstamp is in on the manipulation…. Why would they say that? It makes no sense at all.. I’ve read that people running the exchanges are in on the manipulation… Its all do to with this auction..

      2. George

        Well, I also expect premium to be paid by the winner(s) but it is interesting how they said it. In any case (manipulating or not) they’re the only exchange owners expect Bobby Lee from BTC China exposing themselves and comunicating with public on regular basis.

      3. Arthur

        “I wonder why such discrepancies in views?”

        One is using tarot cards, another is using technical analysis of gold auctions in the 1920’s, and the last one has no clue and asked his 98 year old grandmother to flip a coin on it? 😉

    2. Bitstamp has had heavy investment from venture capitalists, if there is any subtle things that they can do to sway a market or borderline legal, or the fact that Bitcoin is suffering from a lack of regulation at the moment (and they are based in Slovenia) Im sure they will do it.

      1. George

        BS is from Slovenia but officialy based in London. I agree that boys could play their game but atm I can’t find better alernative taking in consideration multiple factors.
        BTW what would mean to you that they’re from “Slovenia”?

        Anyway I mentioned them as they touched the Silk Road Auction…

      2. My parents are from a small island nation of Cyprus, these small european countries tend not to be as strict when it comes to regulation. But, since you mentioned they are based in London I may not wrong how. Citi predicts price to drop as result of auction too. Others however believe a price rise to follow. I wonder why such discrepancies in views?

    3. Arthur

      And so far not much is happening today,,, Few $ up, few $ down (yawns). Maybe in the few hours before the auction closes?

      1. Elie

        its really China or more precisely HUOBI leading this out of nowhere rally. You should have their chart opened and follow it up, Bitfinex and the rests are just following China’s volume. This whole pump was a small volume one though, could fall back pretty quick down to 560 and lower anytime this weekend. But I am like you still waiting as I think we might drop a good old Volatile Bitcoin drop of 100$ then go back up around sunday/monday 🙂 will decide around sunday when I will buy in.

      2. Arthur

        Yeah, for the moment I’m sticking to my Limit Order on 522.50. There seems to be no real urge (yet) to go any higher as 590 and as you said, Elie, volumes are not picking up either. Sounds like a classic scenario for a drop to follow under the given circumstances.

        Keeping my eyes peeled on what’s happening though, because when most market watchers say one thing, of course the other thing will happen lol…

      3. Elie

        For sure Arthur, one thing most of Bitcoin newbies dont want to face is that Bitcoin is too volatile and sometimes too tough to predict. That’s why most of the great and pro traders give RANGES to their followers in which Bitcoin will fluctuate, some others like Chris Dunn just trades Bitcoin on highs and lows, the most simple or basic method ever!!! They just don’t tell you which direction it will go all the time unless they’re 100% sure, otherwise they will be pointed fingers they are wrong by some jerks out there!
        I always find it best to include 2 scenarios when in doubt.

        Anyways, my last TA from 3 days ago was almost spot on: https://www.tradingview.com/v/R3JaQV9K/
        It did shoot up yesterday as I forecasted up to 585 in the red line, but I didn’t really expect that after the low volume we have seen before that happened. I guess some traders wanted to retest the previous high even with low volume! next time I will be more confident and will definitely buy in low and sell high.Oh well more experience.

        Now I am looking for more Chinese flat lines this weekend that precedes drop, setting my buy at 530-535. Lower could happen with manipulation and good old bitcoin volatility but i wont take such a chance 🙂 yet. tty this weekend and I will publish a 72 hours TA in a bit!

      4. Elie

        Great after a small dip we got another huge spike from China and Bitfinex is up to 597. Still didn’t cross 600 though. Lots of manipulation IMO from China. 600 is a very strong resistance and Enky said that too earlier. Once we break it significantly (610) I will fully buy in 🙂 else if it false back it will be a big dip to 530s

      5. Arthur

        Funny, during the auction day the price stayed relatively flat: 575-600 range. To be honest, I didn’t expect that. I’ll give it a few more days, probably by Tuesday the latest I will buy in.

      6. Arthur

        And when I noticed it started pushing towards 600 on Bitstamp, I decided to buy in at 595. After that it broke 600, now let’s see if that means something and if my decision was right…

      7. Elie

        So I have been doing some reading since yesterday, seems were done with the downtrend seeing the bull pennant and bullish breakout we got out of nowhere, I guess it were some traders who did not want to miss the boat and jumped in. Unfortunately I was still convinced it was nothing as the volume was not so convincing Lol. But usually I prefer to see confirmation before putting my fiat in and I am waiting for Monday’s breakout. So for now after we break 612, I will buy in and next high or resistance will be the devil’s $666 resistance. I would short sell there there and rebuy at 435.

        If we decide to go down again, the lowest we would reach would be 570 resistance.
        So far I do not expect any winner to tell us how much they bought their coins for! We might never know!

      8. Im glad I bought at 586, was just gut feeling this is despite seeing quite a few traders warning of further drops, it did drop further though but not to the extent that it should have. I suppose reading signals can put things in your favor, but human mind is too bloody unpredictable. Anyhow Im done with buying, wife has banned me lol

      9. Elie

        * correction meant: and rebuy at 535

        Peter. wife’ or Gfs s can get jealous of Bitcoin Lol Gf told me I give Bitcoin more attention than I give to her!

  12. Mike

    So far we’re not seeing any major moves either way. In other words, I see no reason to buy if you haven’t or sell if you are holding. I am waiting for days when prices will move by hundreds in a day. If the likes of Andreson are correct, we might see days in a few years time when Bitcoin is priced like Berkshire Hathaway’s and move in thousands in a single day. Like most who discovered Bitcoin, I have not been excited to trade like this since 2000.

  13. Artie

    Hey everyone. A little offtopic from me. I was thinking about the near future of bitcoin and I have some doubts. We all here are waiting for the huge rally that is supposed to bring bitcoin to new heights and from what I noticed big portion of people involved in bitcoin have similar expectations – that is, they hope to make large profit in the near future. And here comes my doubt – obviously not everyone can be a winner. For someone to make a profit someone else has to lose. So do we really have the ‘fuel’ necessary to push bitcoin to the new heights? Are there really so many people who are greedy/naive enough or just plain inexperienced to fuel the new bubble? Maybe it’s just me having the wrong impression about btc popularity. After all I’ve been monitoring bitcoin market/news for quite a while already so it’s easy for people like me to get the wrong image ‘wow, so many people know about btc’, while in reality most people probably don’t know that much about it, except that it’s some ‘cyber money’.

    1. B. Mums

      These thoughts never leave my mind, Artie. Sure a lot of people know about it, and some big names want in on it as we’ve been reading, but the masses need to want in on it for the price to jump a considerable amount. The masses will buy private bitcoins for just themselves, from exchanges like BTCE, BitStamp, and Bitfinex. So far, the masses haven’t decided to buy in yet…and the question is why not and if they do, when?

      There’s a lot of hype about the price going up and you’d think people would start buying with that hype. Or has the hype just been artificially created by people who have a lot invested in bitcoin already? In this corrupt world, you just never know until that price moves.

      Every time we hit a new high,…. 590, then 600, then 605 this morning, I feel I should sell just in case but like everyone else, I’m too scared to miss the train when the market decides to jump $30 in one hour.

    2. Arthur

      It’s called ‘network effect’. Try to imagine a group of 100 people invested in bitcoin a year ago, one of them being a millionaire. Each of them tell 3 people about bitcoin, and those 3 people tell several other people too. Meanwhile bitcoin is more and more mentioned in the press. So the next time it feels good again to invest in bitcoin, it are 1,000 new people, including 10 millionaires, that join the bitcoin community. And they contribute to the next sprint (or bubble, whatever you want to call it, but in fact it are ‘growth spurts’) that will bring bitcoin to the next level.

      Now back to real life. There are currently around 5 million people into bitcoin. The majority of them came in the last half year – 1 year. Amongst them several handfuls of millionaires. The next sprint is when the community grows to 10 – 25 million users, and in the meantime the number of big investors are running into the hundreds. For example, and I mentioned this here before, did you know there are 12 million millionaires living on our planet? Presuming bitcoin will run the whole marathon in the next 5 – 10 years, there will be several sprints caused by this ‘network effect’. That said, we ain’t seen nothing yet… Us here are still amongst the early adopters, so to say. The HUGE majority is still ‘out there’. Hope you get what I mean…

      1. Elie

        I agree what on Arthur said.

        Also I do not have any doubts on Bitcoin on the Longterm actually, if you buy now n’ forget about trading and come back by the end of this year I am sure that 1 Bitcoin will be worth stable $900 to $1200.

        However, I am still not quite at ease with the short term, and I like to trade, and that’s why I have not actually bought it in unless we start to rally past 610-620 if by Monday-Wednesday we do not see the megabull we will probably be spending July-August at the 490-530 range if not lower, that’s where I could buy in. Will see.

      2. Again this brings us back to the chicken or the egg scenario. Its was the last price rise that bought in new investors as the price rise caused a media storm, this may have actually caused the double top of $1000 cause insiders created the first $1000 bubble and then cashed in during the drop and the second $1000 top was a result of new investors the media attention bought in from the first bubble. At this point Bitcoin has to pass $1000 again before the media starts a frenzy that should bring in more investors etc. I imagine there are plenty of investors on the side lines waiting to jump in. Bitcoin is a HODL asset for sure.

  14. Arthur

    For the third time in a row… Dropping volumes, flat price for several days on the exact spot (580-600) that I calculated for a start of the next lag of the bull run. And with 4 weeks after we reached the 600’s it’s about time too. I’m humbly bringing the Anathema Theory back on the table, with the risk that I’m wrong again… Anyway, will the bull run start in the upcoming days? 😉

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