Quick Update: Daily Chart

chartThere was not enough volatility to reach $ 530, XBT / USD stopped at $555, the middle level between 530 and 580 dollars (the midpoint of the price channel).

I believe that bitcoins will remain within these extremes of the price channel between 530 and 630 dollars with the nearest resistance located at about 610 dollars. The oscillator volumes is still negative and could become positive with a strong break of $ 630.


45 thoughts on “Quick Update: Daily Chart

  1. Elie

    Thanks Enky. where do u recommend to put a bid to buy in if we still didn’t?
    I am thinking 570 although no guarantee we could reach there. The reason is the last 2 bottoms were $10 apart e.g. $550 and $560 so next stop could be 570. Also read that currently the RSI has been in the oversold area since Friday evening. Thanks

      1. Elie

        Glade I had my alarms set at 610 and I bought in at $603 on VOS Exchange (was lower there still as the trading has been slow their in the weekend). We have an insane rally going on now and close to breaking past 630. We went from 600 to 630 in only half an hour!

        Thanks Enky! Always great to have you outline us the two scenarios with indicators to look for 🙂

      2. Enky

        Those are signs that the bottom is in at ~$555, looking to pass 630, next resistance zone 660$-680$

    1. Elie

      Yes read on this 🙂 but remember the winning bidders can feel free to disclose how much they bought their coins or not. We might also never know. If they paid more for them e.g. $700 or 680 then it would be in their interest to declare it though so they can pump the market upwards.

  2. croll83

    +20$ in less than hour… what’s happening? Auction loosers, Masrshall insiders or just Big Bull Trap? I would see 580 again.. any possibility it will retest support in next days?

    1. B. Mums

      This is a pretty strong rally. Could just be because it’s the Monday after the auction,. Maybe some of the winners were able to put out there bids publicly somewhere.

      I wish I knew where to find the news first, that’s for sure.

      1. Elie

        croll83, if we pass 630 significantly u should buy in fully. also see enkys reply above 🙂

    2. Elie

      Must be some insiders, the coins got sold somewhere at 680 or 700s maybe?
      Were at 630 as I type this and chances we blow past it as of now are pretty strong if the volume we currently have keeps coming.

      1. Actually, the auction news is not positive. Given the number of the bids and the overall bitcoins bid, it’s not a highly oversubscribed auction. From the leaked numbers, the average bid price was $591, but I don’t trust Barry Silbert. I think the pumped the price tonight as he knows tomorrow when the truth is out, market may crash, so, this pump is supposed to neutralize or compensate to some degree.

      2. Elie

        Nikolay, where do you see those leaked numbers of 591? Share a link thx. I actually trust Barry and think he is doing an amazing job at promoting Bitcoin everywhere he goes, seen him shining on TV News interviews etc. 🙂

      3. I don’t think Barry would run the risk of giving his trust a bad name, I believe he will state the truth, regardless if he would like to tell a lie, he wont. Also, we don’t know what the other bidder bid, they well outbid Bary’s trust. 591 would be good enough for me.

  3. CoinDesk purposely is misleading people as they divide the planted by Barry Silbert number by 30K BTC, not 48K. I cannot believe how people can have thousands of bitcoins and yet be so stupid and easy to manipulate. The same article was fed to the Chinese Bitcoin sites and most of those guys either can’t read English, or are behind the Great Firewall of China. Anyway, knowing Barry Silbert’s character, I think he did this because numbers tomorrow will be in the low $500s.

  4. Arthur

    Now let’s check if we go beyond 680 somewhere soon, and from there pick up speed with this bitcoin rollercoaster (thanks Franks, for inspiration lol), then I will slowly start feeling confident about my ‘Anathema Theory’ lol. This little spike to $635 should just be the somewhat slow start, so it doesn’t mean much (yet). I’m not fastening my seatbelts yet anyway. But I’m glad I bought my last coins at $595, instead of waiting for the low 500’s. As far as I can see, most tech indicators now point into the direction of a turnaround going on, so we will not see the 500’s anytime soon I think.

    Anyway, happy trading, my friends! 🙂

    1. It’s more probably to see a reversal tomorrow when bids and winners get published. I think otherwise Barry Silbert wouldn’t have pumped today as this can eat the momentum if tomorrow’s news was going to be a positive one. I might be wrong.

    2. Arthur

      In my humble opinion, but I might be completely wrong of course, Barry indicates that his syndicate has been leaning towards bidding for the coins in auction for a price with a bonus on the current market price (current = Friday’s market price) because his syndicate members wanted more coins than were available. Let’s check his numbers, which have nothing to do with pumping whatsoever I think, it’s just an overview of what he has been doing auction-wise:

      “Results of our US Marshals bitcoin syndicate:

      Bidders – 42
      Bids received – 186
      BTC quantity bid – 48,013”

      I read it like this: 42 members who made 186 bids (with ten lots in auction that’s possible) and in total they wanted 48,013 bitcoins. It is my presumption that all 186 bids received by Barry have been passed onwards to the Marshals. And clearly that would be overbidding, since only 30,000 bitcoins were available. And Barry’s syndicate wasn’t the only bidder either, obviously. So to me it looks like: a rather firm demand for the coins, indicating a price with a bonus to be paid for them. Hopefully we will know more later today or tomorrow… Either the Marshals will make a statement, or the winning bidder(s) will hopefully say something… The bitcoin price jumping up now is another clear indication to me that the market is currently starting to price in the auction (bonus) elements.

      1. People started off loading Bitcoins before the auction in anticipation that the auction coins will sell under market value. Either this is a bull trap, or some people have some knowlesge that the coins sold for above market value. I’ll go for the latter.

      1. I don’t get what’s actually impressive? Barry Silbert’s post was more impressive, although he lied as he listed a much higher number of bids than what US Marshals are reporting.

      2. Elie

        Barry just tweeted that Second Market was OUTBIDDED on all the Blocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wow this is very bullish, someone stole it away from them big time. Strong Bullish signal, market is blowing past 630 again. Currently at 638!!!

        Announcement: The SecondMarket / Bitcoin Investment Trust bidding syndicate for the US Marshals bitcoin auction was outbid on all blocks.

        Reference: https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/483692873855299584

      3. Arthur

        “Barry Silbert’s post was more impressive, although he lied” – Nikolay

        Why do you think he lied? Barry reported the number of bids that he received from his syndicate members, and the US Marshals report the number of bids that they received. Obviously the syndicate would combine their incoming bids before sending them through, to have a stronger position.

      4. Arthur

        “Barry just tweeted that Second Market was OUTBIDDED on all the Blocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” – Elie

        And there is the first batch of frustrated auction losers (no less than 42 ex-syndicate members in one blow!) that will now go to exchanges to start buying bitcoins.

        For sure a bullish sign… Market should not start rallying now though, because we still have no clue what price(s) the winning bid(s) are.

  5. Mike

    We’re seeing some excitement brewing here. There is no question in my mind that we will revisit the previous “bubble high” of around $1200, soon or later. That must happen. The question is when and in what movements. The simple way to bypass the burden of trying to figure that out is to not trade. This current situation with Silbert’s syndicate being outbid is rather surprising — a pleasantly surprising event.

    1. Elie

      hell yeah! I was thinking of selling at the resistance around 680 whenever we get there and buy lower at 660 but I am too bullish at this point and scared to do any move other than HOLDING. I will not be around my PC tomorrow and the minute a positive announcement comes out if it ever does we can start the MegaBull and go up to 800-900 if not more. At this point I will just buy more coins as we head up whenever I get paid from work 🙂 and not bother looking back. China is finished, I mean we could have some bad news but nobody cares enough for it and the worse already happened, the long term now is SUPER BULLISH.

      Did u guys think that this is only the FIRST auction from the US Marshall? We still have at least 10 and more to be done as the government wants to liquidate the Wallet!!! gee, insane if this one goes as bullish as we are now the others will be even more!. Anyways I am patiently waiting for some disclosure of some bids, very curious to see whats the highest bid. What if the Winklevoss bought the coins at $1200 or even $3000 ?

      1. Mike

        well, $3000 seems a bit “out there” even for the bulls… But I get your sentiment…

    2. Arthur

      “The simple way to bypass the burden of trying to figure that out is to not trade.”

      Exactly my plan already for a long time. I’m trying to figure out a new high for the next bull run (one similar to October/November 2013) and sell at this high, to buy back after the unavoidable firm correction. Currently my calculations say the high might be in the 5,000 – 7,500 range, with a correction to follow close to 50%. Presuming this bull run will start anytime soon, the top of the sprint is calculated somewhere in August (moved from halfway to end of August in the meantime). As always, I’ll update you guys every now and then. For the moment it’s looking good, but it’s not time yet to say ‘fasten your seatbelts ladies and gentlemen, the bitcoin express is leaving…’ 🙂

    1. Elie

      Makes sense $666 was our last good stable support. So I am guessing the market will stabilize around 666-680 and wait for more positive news and leaks on the highest bidder. After that the megabull.
      I checked and this Bitcoin auction has made the news on Reuters, Wall Street Journal, New York Times etc.. should get us some fresh new investors

      1. Mike

        Possibly the biggest unintended consequence of the this auction was that the US government inadvertently or intentionally validated Bitcoin. The consequence may spur the onset of the next boom cycle or bubble or whatever one decides to call it. Things are heating up as the buyers who didn’t win in the auction showed their cards for the world to see.

    2. Anathema

      “@barrysilbert brother Alan reveals approximate average Bitcoin bid price from @secondmarket syndicate was $665 ”

      It depends how you interpret the “buying demand” in his tweet. Secondmarket received bids for a total of 48K btc (see Arthur’s post above), so that could be interpreted as the actual demand. 20 million / 48K = $417, although that seems ridiculously low.

  6. croll83

    Any comment about the volume? On Bitstamp is lower then BTC-e, is about 10BTC/15min! @Enky: what does your private indicator tells about this?

    1. Arthur

      Interestingly, Pantera been bidding below market price, and that turned out to be a mistake (why didn’t they hire me as an advisor, I would have told them, duhhh! :P). Pantera also hints that the winning bid is probably higher than $634.

      “Pantera Capital chief executive officer Dan Morehead told Reuters the firm was not able to purchase the bitcoins because their bid was below the market price.

      “The point is when this auction was announced, bitcoin was trading at $634 and the general view was that the supply would take the price down,” Morehead said.

      “But ultimately, the supply increased the demand for bitcoins and now the price was higher than when the auction was announced.””

      1. Elie

        probably we will not know the price unless that person declares it. some leaks say that it was around $645-640. Some dump happening as some whales trying to cash out their gains.

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