Short Term Update

chartXBT/USD is slowly retracing back in the lower part of the price channel. This price channel is computed using a fitting function that highly smooth the data and the deviation lines are computed using the average true range, overall it is a bit different from the other approach used by me: VWAP and its deviation lines.
The color of the midpoint channel line represents the slope, white it means the tendency is flat, red and green for a bearish or bullish tendency.

I think that this market is now flat with a short term bearish tendency that should end with a new low at or above $575, any weakness below it and especially below the recent bottom at ~$550 would be bearish IMO.

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45 thoughts on “Short Term Update

  1. Elie

    Thanks Enky, good thing I finally decided to short @ 625 few hours ago before the dump occurs. I wish I shorted at 665 but it was a tough choice and a big chance to take back then I suppose. Then got to lazy to short after and do day trading up until now. I just put a buy at 575 if we do hit that point I would have made a gain of 1.1BTC on Bitfinex. I will also watch for the possibility of bottoming maybe a little higher so I don’t miss the leg up Or of course going under.

  2. Arthur

    Thanks Enky, for the update. My guess is we won’t see the 575’s because there’s not enough volume to get there. The triangle shape with a rising support line that I’m seeing, would make a further drop stop around 590 I guess.

    1. Elie

      Next lows in a gradual way if one is broken: 609, 604, 598, 585 then 575 and 560
      My best guess is that 585 will be the lowest we will go 🙂

    2. Arthur

      Furthermore, this is pretty good news.

      “The island of Jersey has approved the launch of a bitcoin investment fund, which the government claims will be the first such fund to be regulated.

      Called the Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund (GABI), the fund received regulatory approval from the Jersey Financial Services Commission (JFSC) earlier this week. The fund, set up by Global Advisors Jersey Limited (GAJL), is set to launch on the 1st August.”

  3. Artie

    I don’t feel confident enough to trade right now. I think I’ll just stay with my coins and see how it goes.

  4. B. Mums

    What the heck, I’m selling at 610 on BTC-E. Too many times I’ve read such things and didn’t sell, only to become disappointed. I was questioning it at 620 and I will not miss an opportunity to make a quick 0.1-0.2 BTC back.

      1. B. Mums

        Lol, just feelin that its gonna drop to at least 585. Tomorrow is friday and a perfect time for nice $20-30 dump. Tired of holding when there are so many small opportunties to make bank. I never have been as confident that were going to the moon. Weve had trouble surpassing 650 many times now.

      2. B.Mums

        Well everybody is so optimistic, someone has to be realistic. 😛 I’m only following Enkys post/advice. If we can’t pass 635 in the next few hours I think I made an OK move… although I do wish sold higher now ofc.

        Graphs are just pretty predictions, almost always made by optimists.

      3. Enky

        at least there has been a reaction to the upside instead of a test to 575, better then a kick in the ass:)

      4. B.Mums

        You think we could still hit sub 600 enky, or looking like a long shot now? I thought about buying back in 620 today but hard to take a loss when I feel it’s just as possible we could still head downward another week.

    1. Elie

      You have to observe stuff first, usually after the first dip their is a re-tracement to the previous highs which usually at some point fail, then after that we redip down to attempt to retest the last low which is 603.7 on BTC-e. Most of the time we get close to it but end up few dollars away from it. then we rebounce up and spend few days around 610-620 at this point to then fail and continue our dump downwards.

      I sold at 625 and could have rebought at 608 on Bitfinex but didn’t. But now I am waiting the retrace to 610 to attempt to buy in and sell high around 620-623 if that works 🙂 . Then I will stay out until next major dip to 596-600 and buy in again and sell high. Repeat.

      1. Amit

        As i thought, some smart investors took took this chance and started buying (628 now), i wouldn’t count on going below 600 any time soon, i think we will get back to 660 and cross it very soon, remember we are in a bullish market with very bullish signs and news, the investors are just looking for a good time to buy in.

      2. Elie

        Was a short nice lived rally, hopefully nobody got caught in it 🙂 or maybe you have done some profits buying low selling high. Dont forget were still in a downtrend. Old high was 680 and resistance was at 660. Then 660 turned in old high and resistance was at 640.
        What this tells us is that we MIGHT see a rally to 640-635 and our resistance will be at 620. Could be a nice way to profit too before heading under the 600 in few days

      3. Elie

        John Carter’s TTM Squeeze Indicator showing positive on 4 hours charts for Bitstamp, Bitfinex and Huobi. This is a very bullish sign. Bought in at 625.7 with a tiny loss but holding untill 645 or 655, not sure but 687 could be possible IF volume stays sustainable but will see about that.

      4. Elie

        Another thought is that the next hours with China onboard will tell us a LOT where were heading. two possibilities:

        (a) We keep heading up to 640, 645 then 655 (not sure if 683 is an option here – yet to be seen) then we start to head down from there again slowly.
        (b) We form a nice W by stopping at 635 or 640-645 then head down to retest 610-620 then we get catapulted towards 750-800 with the megabulls. I think Arthur you would like this one 😀

      5. Arthur

        lol, yeah. What I learned is that every cycle has slightly longer timeframes for the several phases it’s going through. This ‘flat’ phase which I consider to have started early June, and that is keeping us inside the 580-680 zone, was supposed to last 3 weeks (general trading theory) or 4-6 weeks (bitcoin history for last 3 cycles). Now we’re probably heading to 7 weeks, maybe a little more. We dipped below 580 twice in June so that caused a delay also. When the sprint would start before the end of the month, we’re still following The Anathema Theory. And when the sprint takes us to around $5,000 then my S-curve model would still hold. Otherwise some reshaping of the model should be done. So I’m indeed VERY interested to see what’s happening in July. 🙂

  5. alphadragon

    I think we will dip to 595-600 in the next 7 days, but will pop after Ben Lawsky’s report. Be wary of trading fees, it can eat up your profits if you aim for a $10 move!

    1. Arthur

      “Be wary of trading fees, it can eat up your profits”

      Exactly, I noticed that too. It was one of the reasons why I stopped short-term daytrading. Now I’m only aiming for the bigger jumps and drops.

  6. Arthur

    Sidenote @Enky: we previously discussed a few XBT price predictions for the future up to 2017, here is what is said at CoinSummit, London yesterday. Just wanted to let you know, as they are more in line what you think also. 🙂

    “Price predictions

    Here’s a quick selection of where today’s speakers and panelists see the price of bitcoin going:

    Steve Waterhouse [Pantera Capital]: Strong indications that the price is going up.
    Jan Hammer [Index Ventures]: Not in the business of predicting foreign exchange prices.
    Geoff Lewis [Founders Fund]: $2,000 sometime in 2014.
    Chad Cascarillo [Liberty City Ventures, CEO of itBit]: $1,850 by end of 2014; $18,500 by 2017.
    Alec Petro [Bay Hill Capital trader]: $1,200 by end of 2014, $3,000 by 2017.”

    I’m only willing to go with these people after the next sprint, when it turns out that this next sprint doesn’t add to the S-curve model I’m working with.

  7. Amit

    Long term Investors are buying slowly, there will come a time that day traders will be left behind and then we will start rising.

    1. Anathema

      Do we have confirmation that big, long term investors are buying on the public exchanges? My thought has recently been this: that we won’t see the expected big bull run until one of two things happens.

      1. Big investors start buying on public exchanges because they have no choice.
      or
      2. The start of widespread use of bitcoin (not for speculation but to buy things with). This i think won’t happen until both a) ignorance and prejudices against bitcoin disappear (and we have a long way to go, just look at the comments section at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDsExjoyoqw), and b) everyday use of bitcoin becomes a lot easier so the layman can understand it (Trezor for example).

      1 seems more likely in the short term, 2 i think will take a bit longer, perhaps 2015.

      1. George

        I’d say that option 1 is the only realistic within next year or two. It also means that it will add an additional perspective to the BTC as a speculative asset which can push option 2 further in time. IMHO

    2. Arthur

      My 2 cents based on the recent figures provided by Coinbase (80% holding, 20% using): I think these figures will not dramatically change over the years. And there will still be a role for bitcoin day traders long term.

      Because if you compare the worlds’ total wealth of around 240 trillion dollar (2013, Credit Suisse research) to the worlds annual income to pay for costs of living which is 46.9 trillion dollar (Wisegeek: “If the trillion dollar worldwide economy were evenly split up between Earth’s 6.7 billion people, the average income would be $7,000 USD.”) then we see that currently most money is stored in wealth (83.6%), and less money is used (16.3%). I know, I’m presuming here that all income is used for daily payments, which is not true of course; some is saved and added to the wealth position. Anyway, I’m sure if the world would ultimately change to a bitcoin-only economy, but also during its trip going that direction, these figures would not change much.

      So that’s why I think the rise of bitcoin will mainly be determined, and caused, by people, companies, funds and governments willing to store their wealth and savings in bitcoin. Day traders are needed to help spread the coins and its wealth amongst more and more holders & users over time. And the infamous ‘network effect’ will hopefully bring these new people (etc.) in every now and then in ever-growing groups till everybody is in. Then the price will finally level out… That’s my long-term scenario for bitcoin according the S-curve theory.

      On an interesting sidenote: if ever the total of worlds’ wealth is stored in bitcoin, its price would be around $11.5M, calculated with the future max supply. 🙂

  8. B.Mums

    Got really quiet here, the anticipation…. lol. I bought back in of course. I’m wondering if we will even see sub-600 again. It seems like a really tight trading range right now, not bouncing more than $7 unless there’s a dump of hundreds of coins. I think we’ll see some movement this Friday, hopefully good movement!

    1. DJustin

      Don’t worry I just had to sell most of my coins due to a business expense. That usually means the price will make a big jump up. :b

    2. Arthur

      @DJustin: ouch! 😦

      I don’t have much to report these days, I’m afraid. I’m not trading, just patiently waiting for things to come. The only exciting thing is that my Safecoins position is currently on a 60% profit after having been on a 30% loss after I bought them on the MaidSafe IPO in April. And a few days ago, on CoinDesk, I was able to bring a question to David Irvine (CEO MaidSafe) under his attention and he was kind enough to give a rather long and personal answer. That made me a little proud… 🙂

      Now that I think of it, a while ago I mentioned here that I would go try AllTrade, an alpha trading program for trading on several bitcoin exchanges. Turns out it’s being build by a very ambitious Dutch guy, and we have been discussing features and I’m helping him beta testing. Quite kewl… Keep you posted about this. 🙂

  9. Anathema

    About this Xapo debit card, I really don’t see a reason to get one. You lose all the advantages of bitcoin: low transaction fees, anonymity and no third party involvement. It’s just like a normal debit card, only less trustworthy because you have to trust Xapo with your bitcoins. I’d rather get a card that doesn’t require an account and instead stores the bitcoins on the card.

    1. I registered with them for shits and giggles. There must be a reason why they received $40 million dollars in investment. One advantage of having a Bitcoin debit card is that your Bitcoins can now be accepted everywhere, using just the card in your pocket and security is left to a third party.

  10. I ordered a Piper wallet! Can’t wait to receive it. Its made from a raspberry pi computer I think and it doesn’t connect to the net, yet prints off completely random public and private keys. Its random production of the public and private key is suppose to be the most robust on the market.

    1. Arthur

      My opinion, with a Peter Thiele – Facebook reference, is on there already in the comments lol.

    2. Arthur

      lol, what optimism, what lack of realism? The only thing real for us traders is the current price. We can now buy in, or sell, and we know what we get. The rest is calculations and expectations. We win some, we loose some, and only time will tell who was mostly right… That’s how I look at it, and yes, in general I have a positive feeling about where bitcoin is heading in future. Otherwise I wouldn’t be in this game.

      BTW, before you’re dead, may I recommend you send your remaining coins to the Make A Wish Foundation? 🙂

    1. Arthur

      Absolutely. They’re faster than I thought, but now that they’re in, they will guide the rest. Good work, Dell. 🙂

      1. Elie

        Sup boys, been on vacation here but when I saw that Dell news I had to come here and brag about it. Mass adoption is getting better here and the reason that we are not seeing a lot of volatility is because of that. Instead of seeing a drop of $50 or $100 were getting very slow drops of $10 and $20 over a long period of time. At this point Holding is going to be the best thing we can do. Of course shorting at $680 and $750 is still on my table. But shorting now at 610-620 is useless

      2. Anathema

        Hmm, so you don’t think it will go below $600 (or even to $575) as Enky suggested in the start post? I’ve started learning TA myself, but i’m not very far yet. So until i’m better at it, i’m almost always working with old information coming from others. I did sell—perhaps foolishly—a small amount at $624, thinking it would go lower. But $611 is the lowest it went on Bitfinex and now it’s back in the $620s.

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