Short Term Update: Forecast for this week

XBT/USD reacted from the triple bottom at ~$555 but I think that this market is now flat with a short term bearish tendency, for now buyers showed up at the first static support level. The 1 year VWAP is now at $520 and the 2 months VWAP at $508, i consider this price zone a good buying opportunity in case of a further drop below the static support ($555).

Weekly price levels computed with my method are:

Support: $559
Resistance: $600
Volatility level: 20%

For volatility level expressed in % i mean the instantaneous volatility level compared to the highest historical value (100%), why instantaneous? because it is computed using only last 20 days.

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65 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Forecast for this week

  1. Elie

    I am hoping the market can pop a last leg up till 594-600 range (today) so I can short there before it heads down.
    I do not also think that $560 will hold us for a 4th time so I will put a safe buy at the 508-520 range.
    While typing this Bitstamp reached 590!

    Enky the levels you gave for the support, resistance are based on BTC-e as far as I remember, right? thanks!! 🙂

      1. Elie

        hahaha shitstamp! freaking Stamp ruined the rally for me few minutes ago. we were definitely going to touch 600 but a whale set a sell of 400BTC out of nowhere at 593 (although we were heading up) and scared everyone. I guess he wanted to cash in safely. Then now started to go downhill. Exited out at 590 with still a nice profit now putting this buy somewhere at 520. just too bad was aiming to sell at 597. I will just wait out now all in FIAT till things clear out.

    1. Elie

      still ok were better safe than sorry. This low volume is not promising. Were definitely going to retest 560 again. Cant wait to see what happens there.

  2. Mike

    I think the buying off 550 to 600 was rather bullish with good volume. I think the psychology has turned negative by chartists and momentum traders alike. That is a good contrarian indicator in my book particularly with so many having jumped into Bitcoin with the mega bull run halos above their heads. The tree needed some good shaking, though I’m not completely convinced the job is sufficiently done, yet. We shall see.

  3. Peter

    Yep, some short term speculators may be becoming increasingly impatient. The regulatory landscape has changed though and apprehensive investors may now be more confident in buying coins. All shall be revealed.

  4. Arthur

    Thanks Enky. Good to see 3 important figures together like this. And meanwhile I figured out why July didn’t bring us the Mega Bull Run. I mean, I could have known beforehand…

    In June, I bought the latest album of indie rock band Blaudzun, called Promises of No Man’s Land. There is this song on it that gives me the goose bumps, named ‘Too many hopes for July’… Right! 😦

  5. croll83

    Question: volatility both of price and volumes means breaking signals (up or down in any case), right?

    1. Elie

      not sure about that, I will let others answer 🙂

      Some good news is that the UK government is looking into Bitcoin and maybe regulating than expanding it to Businesses? I dont think though for August it will have an impact but once everyone is back on vacation in September all those good news will drip the price like crazy. For now I think were still due to retest 560 , 550 and at worse 520-530. We have failed to rally several times up in the past few days.

      http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-28670414

      1. croll83

        I made that question because I see that the price (on BTC-e but similar to other exchanges) is oscillating between 570 and 585… Volumes also, goes from few tens of BTC to up 150BTC… If this is a braking signal then IMO the news will drive the upward or downward direction… so Osbourne news is important just like the agreement between BitPay and Global Payment (http://paymentweek.com/2014-2-4-bitpay-building-global-payment-network-ground-4019/), the Nasdaq interview (http://www.coindesk.com/nasdaq-exec-winklevoss-bitcion-trust-etf-industry/), and many other news… we must stay tuned!

      2. Peter

        Yeah, and as Enky said it’s also slightly bearish, getting tired of waiting, will see what happened later today might buy back in for tiny profit. I didn’t sell enough to make it worth while anyway.

      3. Arthur

        Yeah, not much happening these days. The fireworks are in the altcoins currently. Litecoin & Dogecoin dropping further, and Mastercoin which I considered being a terminal patient, on an unexpected rise, with extremely low volumes though. And even the message that Bitpay secured a deal that is bringing over a million(!) merchants under their fingers to connect to bitcoin doesn’t do anything. Weird.

      4. Arthur

        LOL, party on then. Dogecoin went from $0.000220 to $ 0.000168 (- 24%) in a short while. I’m not going to cry either when they would drop from the top 10 cryptos. On another altcoin sidenote, Ethereum IPO is doing rather well (which was to be expected, looking at the hype all year), they have received $14M in funding already. But what’s freaking me out, even now that the price of Ether is raised ~15% PER DAY, they are selling like crazy. People are so stupid sometimes.

        And you know what? (back to bitcoin things please) This morning I send my resumé to BitPay. They have positions in Amsterdam, their newly opened European HQ. Let’s see, I wouldn’t mind working for them to help bitcoin. 🙂

  6. Peter

    I bought back in, I’m not too confident to wait this out. I don’t make a good day trader lol

  7. Artie

    I sold at 580 and now patiently waiting. I think the next big really is going to happen really soon but before that I hope for a decent drop, hopefully to the 500 area although I’m not setting my target too low.

    1. B.Mums

      I’m in a similar situation…sold 585 and now hoping we get one last drop. I reset my buy in to 570 yesterday but it’s only gone up. Thought about buying 572-574 a few times too.

      Charts are showing we may have bottomed out but I’m not quite sure. We might be topping out now only to dive lower.

      1. Elie

        guys I don’t wanna pop the party but looks like Bitfinex and Bitstamp have bottomed at 580-575 and were heading upwards now slowly. I bought in at around 584.
        But maybe you should wait for a confirmation from Enky first 🙂 . I dont want to be held liable if I am wrong!

  8. Peter

    I bought back in at 582 after selling 586 virtually broke even, I just see it a little risky at the moment, never felt this ambivalent about the price, actually maybe I have lol Even if we go down I don’t think it will last long.

  9. Arthur

    “Unfortunately for now we are only considering candidates who have a recent/active development and technical support background.” – BitPay

    Bummer… But very understandable, looking at where they stand now with their newly opened office in Amsterdam. Most probably enough managers and sales people, building on a developers team first. Will try again, because I would be very proud to work for them in the fast growing bitcoin industry. 🙂

    Last call also for AllTrade (bitcoin trading software) beta testers. You might remember my posts about that in Enky’s previous update. Drop me a line on spfreaks at gmail dot com, so we can keep Enky’s place clean. Thanks guys.

  10. B.Mums

    Looks like an uptrend but still needs to pass 600 to be sure IMO. Think I’m going to hold off to see 600 broken to buy back in myself but been keeping a closer eye on it…. it just seems btc keeps having issues passing 600 and every time it does it dives back down to see resistance levels at 600 again.

    Enky wold you lean towards another big pump soon (next few days to a week) or continued long term bearishness (lasting at least another week)? I’m interested in your thoughts for weekend and next week.

    1. Elie

      I sold last night at 595 afterall. But I do not know anymore what to think. Mainly what comes to my mind is that were in a congestion between 570 and 600. Seems bulls do not want to let go and bears are not satisfied since the bulls can’t push up — bottom line is nobody is happy LOL. Add the low volume to all this and you have a messy chart with indicators not being so helpful at times. I am also in FIAT till I get a clear orientation of where were going.

      For the month of August since the low volume will persist IMO I am more leaning to bearish at the 490-520 level. However if the bulls take over I think it will be a low volume rally that will reach at max 645-640 and fall back very very quickly down.

      My Plan for this weekend:
      I see till tonight a desperate continuation by the bulls to push past 600 and a failure (whales will most likely try again to cash out and steal more money from anyone buying close to the resistace at 600). Then tomorrow or Sunday a crash to 555-560 (thats where my buy will be set on Bitfinex)
      If we see a reversal past 615-620 with ok volume, that’s where I will buy in and most likely sell at 645.

      1. Elie

        Hey Sam no I dont use twitter 🙂 but i usually share my plans ahead here with the guys and Trading View.

    2. The July drop is slowing down and now it is more flat with support at 550$, i think that this month it should stay above $550. Resistance at 600 and maybe 630 for this month, i’ll try to be more accurate in the next weeks.

      1. B.Mums

        Thanks Elie and Enky, always appreciate your input! 🙂 I’m going to stay patient and buy in at sub 575, hopefully 565.

      2. Elie

        Your welcome B.Mums. It’s very tough right now to be accurate with Bitcoin.
        If you are aware their is also a BOT manipulation going on currently (no surprise) on BTC-e which makes it even more difficult to predict if were going up or down. Hence, why Enky is going with a range of trading between prices (which is a better bet whenever in doubt).
        In the past hours I have noticed that the BOT has been set to be bullish if you look at BTCe on Bitcoinwisdom, you can see the bull setup. So 620-630 or 640 could be on the table

      3. Elie

        Glade to see that the Bullish momentum and BoT failed and that we did the right decision staying out and waiting at 550-560 🙂

      4. B. Mums

        I did buy back in at 581, but only 40%. I figured it’s safe and if we hit 590+ again and flatten out, I’ll sell it. Then if we do bust out of 600, at least I buy back in at 605ish with almost no loss. This or hold out for 560-570, but I had done that for the past week and have become impatient. It seems like some decent support at 570 with a 500 coin wall so my lower buy-in is 572.

      5. Elie

        thats a good tactic too (that I have not tried) to play with 50/50 of my stash. Meaning, you buy Bitcoin with around 50% of your money and leave the rest in fiat in case it drops lower to 555 then you can buy in with the rest. If it goes up then you can quickly buy in with the fiat you have and sell all ATH . This minimizes your losses and less risk.

        At the moment seems were stuck in sideways movement and unable to rally from here still. Will see how long we will continue with this congestion.. maybe tomorrow we will know

  11. Elie

    looks like finally the break down has started boys. Took a while but here we have it. Putting my buy at 555 and will readjust accordingly.

    1. I’m curious to see if it is going to break or not $555, a descending triangle is forming but as i’ve already stated many times a descending triangle is more effective on a longterm downtrend and it is not the case here. As the summer slump continues i remain confident in a bullish last part of the year.

      1. Elie

        so far I am neutral, I am watching too this support. we could retest 540-545 if we lose our current support at 565 then 550 respectively.

        But so far I think we could very well see 540 in the next 4-8 hours. HUOBI’s support has moved down to 3320 cny to usd, which is roughly 540. So not promising IF they lead the next move. While Bitstamp and Finex and BTCE have built a good support at 560.

        **If we break 550 then 520 could be also on the table on Bitfinex due to the margin calls! Last time we went under 550, margins cascaded in a flash to 522. So I might consider placing my buy in that area too

    2. Arthur

      “summer slump” lol. We call that a camping crash (opposite: camping rally) here also.

      Since lots of altcoins are slumping even more than bitcoin, I’m hoping they are returning to bitcoin and provide some support too.

      With the current volumes and lack of volatility I’m letting go of the end of year goal of 3,000 – 3,500, unless Wall Street jumps in this year. But I think that won’t happen; it’s too early. Another scenario that might bring bitcoin to the rescue is when another country, like Argentina, but with a minimum level of bitcoin integration, is going to default. But it’s unlikely on short notice I’m afraid.

      1. Elie

        agreed, but I still think by the end of the year we’d reach 2000$ per coin.

        as of now IMO were in a steep downward channel in which if we continue into, will get us 2 more dumps downward to 540-545 then the 500-525 area. but nothing is conclusive, anything is still possible – I am taking some risk here which if it works will gain me in total 2 Bitcoins 🙂 since I cashed out at 595.

        But my plan now is to see if today we will break 555, if we do then I set my buy on Bitfinex at 523 hoping that long margins will cascade and pick up my buy.

      2. Arthur

        Yeah Elie, I think you have a few good trades at your fingertips currently. This is a moment when I feel sorry to have not started trading yet lol. 🙂

      3. Elie

        hahah thanks well yes I would have made around 2BTC in that downturn 🙂 once we reach 500-525 area

    3. Elie

      BTCe opening up to the 550s tonight… not good. bearish scenario of enky more likely to see the light. Waiting at 520s 🙂

      1. Elie

        wow spot on just woke up by the alarms and Bitfinex stopped right at 555! Stamp at 557.5 and btce at 543. Question is will Bitfinex and Stamp dip below 555? or 555 will satisfy the bears? 🙂 we will know i bet in the next 8 hours

  12. Arthur

    Looks like 550 is about to break. Next stop 520-525 I presume (not today but in a few days I see that happen).

    Rest assured, altcoins are doing even worse. There’s a very ugly shake out going on.

    1. Elie

      Actually if your on Bitfinex support now is at 510. I set my buy in that area. Its crazy 555 did not even offer a bounce to retest back 575-580. So wherever we end up bottoming up from that point we are going to rally like madness. Unless we end up in the 400s then Bitcoin will be bearish for the next few months, hence I would old on buying at that point.

      Sucks bcse now I will be going to NYC till Sunday so I will stay in fiat and check every now and then on Bitcoin. But I am leaving my buy somewhere at 520-525 once on vacation

      1. B.Mums

        Might have to start following your exact moves Elie… You’re almost too accurate with your tops and bottoms the past few months and during this unknown period, lol.

        On a side note… I really hope 520 holds. Grabbed another 0.25 since thinking we’ve hit bottom and since I already bought back in at 570 blah. I feel I should have known better, not seeing a rebound at 565ish…i just get paranoid I’ll miss the next boat because when it sails, I think it will start at warp speed.

      2. Elie

        BOOM and 525 was hit. unfortunately I missed it since my buy was at 520 and I was on route to the airport. damn it.
        Hope u guys banked some coins. That was a nice trade buy low at 525 and sell at 547. damn Bitcoin cant believe it had to crash on this morning :@ .

        Anyways I am still waiting for the flash crash since were more bearish than bullish, we should be able to get some coins now at 500. If you want to take risks you can put buys between 465-490. Personally, I dont think 530 will hold.

      3. Arthur

        My bets are on $520 will hold, and prove to be a very strong support level. Because what we see now is a rather firm rebounce to $550, with good volumes (~ 25,000 24hr on Bitstamp). I’m aware we are still far from a bull run, because it’s only the first day since very long that we see a little more volatility and good volumes. But it looks promising.

        (@Enky, your latest update doesn’t allow us to post replies? )

    2. Arthur

      OK, OK, slightly faster as I expected: $524.70 on Bitstamp a few moments ago. And a nice rebounce back to the 530’s.

      1. Mike

        There is a scene in the movie, Matrix, after Neo was “awakened.” He was in his first simulation program with the shipmates watching to see what “the one” is capable of. Neo jumps off a building trying to follow Morpheous who had just flew to the next building. He falls down the skyscraper and lands on the pavement like a pancake. His shipmates are shocked and confused saying “what does this mean?” I think we’re seeing a similar moment here as the “mega bubble run” watchers are looking at the Bitcoin collapse and thinking “what does this mean” in sheer disappointment. Well, perhaps it isn’t exactly that way. The volume is pretty weak in this final drop. I was hoping for a true capitulation ….

      2. Arthur

        Haha, nice comparison, I absolutely get what you mean Mike. The Matrix movie series are one of my (if not THE) favorite movies of all times. And we’re not there yet it seems, it’s dropping back in the 520’s again. Meanwhile I want to emphasize again: Litecoin -10% (it was on $4.85 earlier today, unbelievable), Peercoin -22%, Dogecoin from 0.000168 to 0.000136 in a few days, Namecoin -20%… You really don’t want to be there.

  13. Elie

    omg it flash crashed to 551 and I had my buy at 569!!!! THIS was my best trade in my entire life. wow i made 4 BITCOINS!!!! time to go long for me on this. Hopefully Bitcoin goes up and up after this but unforunately we might be in bearish territory now. Enky what do u think?
    Looks like my donation is coming to u Enky, will donate once i have a minute in the next few days. back on vacation now!

    1. At bitfinex it touched 450$ the level i forecasted yesterday. Heavy volume at stamp and bitfinex, dunno, it could be a severe liquidation after a margin call at bitfinex.

      1. elie

        Would sorry guys typed that on the fly. I meant my buy was at 469USD on bitfinex. I didn’t put it lower as I wasn’t sure it would reach that low.

      2. Arthur

        Got it Elie! Means you have moved fully from Vault of Satoshi to Bitfinex then, right? Maybe you announced that somewhere here already in the recent past, but I probably missed that. Vault of Satoshi (and Bitstamp, for that matter) didn’t even touch the 400’s so far…

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