Short Term Update

I expected the support at $475 to hold instead the market has dropped further more to $ 440 or so, with this decrease the VWAP average adjusted itself to $ 509 from $520 and the first negative deviation line is now at 480 dollars.

I believe that XBT/USD will eventually end the rebound in this price zone, between 480 and 510 dollars; after that it will probably resume the drop within 24-48 hours. Any strength above $510 would suggest the intention of this market to reverse to the upside confirming ~$440 as a temporary bottom.



33 thoughts on “Short Term Update

  1. Arthur

    Thanks Enky, also for posting so fast with multiple updates. That’s seriously very helpful.

    And to be honest, my whole trading strategy that I started yesterday was exactly based on this “I believe that XBT/USD will eventually end the rebound in this price zone, between 480 and 510 dollars; after that it will probably resume the drop within 24-48 hours.” so I’m happy to see some support in these words.

    1. Yes thank you Enky for being so active! So helpful! I’m curious if anyone has input on what the next bottom range may be if the drop does resume?

    2. Arthur

      My bets are on 422 since yesterday. For example, just look at Enky’s graph above, and extend the downslope to the date of 22-08. You’ll notice it ends in the 410-430 zone somewhere. Use these numbers as a very rough guideline. Again, very rough.

      Furthermore, I’m thinking this bearish sentiments, fueled by 2 flash crashes in a short time (bitfinex and btc-e) will cause extra nervousness in the markets, hence the drop to continue. These weak recoveries to $493 don’t mean anything, if you ask me.

      1. Nikolay

        I was going to hold til 493, but now I don’t think it will reach it. In fact, I believe you are right Arthur. My prediction – 426 (finex). Just wonder if we are going to stop on ~448 before that, where I can try and make a few bucks? Don’t know, just think a drop of 60USD in a matter of 24-48h is going to need a lot of selling and panicking.

      2. We have already hit 493 today on Bitstamp. And 372 euro on Kraken.
        I have bin readling along with the blog for quite some time now. Enky and the others thanks for your great input here!

        I joined Elie but not on Bifinix but on Kraken. i whent short 50% at 371 (+- 492 dollar). Lets see where this goes.

      3. Elie

        Seems this is as far as it goes, the resistance is too strong at 590, I sold a little bit lower but with a profit so I am happy. Right now were still storming the resistance with at least 7 attempts to break past it since this early morning, this tells us that next drop is going to be hard 420 or even 360. Also its obvious that some players on the market are trying to “milk” as much profit as they can by doing this.

        I have been reflecting and now think that reaching 266s with all the Bitcoin innovation and adoption etc. and company’s embracing the technology might not be very likely to happen. The last stop will be the 300s before we head up.

        Right now I have joined in and put a buy at the 433 – 425 range. I am going for 425 in my case 🙂

      4. Arthur

        “this tells us that next drop is going to be hard 420 or even 360.” – Elie
        Wow Elie, 420 I’m in & with you, but 360, that’s a bold statement… What makes you think we will break 400?

      5. Tonight the resistance did hold. But on kraken there was a spike to 379 euro (504 dollar). And later they had a 374 again. I donkt know why but for kraken it seems normal to be about 5 dollars above the exchange rate of other exchanges. But this peak was about 15 dollars higher. (they do have a low daily vollume. Normally arround 800-1000 and with big drops and peaks 1500-3500)

        I’m in the process of getting my Bitfinix account verried. I started using kraken because it was easy to transfer euro’s to and from the exchange. But the vollume is to low to do really effective trading.

      6. Enky

        all the minor exchanges in terms of volume aren’t enough good for daytrading. Even bitshit (aka bitstamp) and bitfuck (aka bitfinex) are expensive in terms of spread and fee and not so good either for daytrading.

      7. Elie

        Volume picked up a lot on HUOBI this morning, seems bulls want to make a come back. that could change everything. Of course if we break past 510 we will hit on the resistance at 550.

      8. Nikolay

        Elie, what is your plan on this run? Do you think buying at this stage is a good idea? My rule is to never buy on a peak period. On a side note, LTC has made 60%+ in just 48 hours… Probably I should switch there but I have that feeling about current period that either the bearish period is over or it is going to experience massive dump. Considering there was a massive dump a day or two ago, I believe we are heading good times.

      9. Enky

        They are all bad; for daytrading 50-100 btcs you have not much choice then to use bitstamp or bitfinex

    3. Arthur

      Hi Nikolay, it was on 442 already before, where it bounced. I’m on Bitstamp, so these figures are different from other exchanges. On Bitstamp it was 493 this morning, now I’ve seen the low 470’s a few minutes ago, so probably it’s on its way back already. And I’m giving it 2 days, like Enky. Maybe even 3. When the price dropped to the low 450’s yesterday again, I thought it would go break the 442 price already, but it didn’t happen. So I decided to sell some more, trying to anticipate on a break of 442 anyday soon. Anyway, lots can happen, and it doesn’t even need that much of panicking, I guess, to drop to the low 400’s. It might bounce a little again in the 440-450 range, I don’t know. I’m waiting for a break of that range, not trying for a few quick bucks lol.

      And so far I’ve been selling 3 batches of coins since yesterday, at every bounce up between 465 and 495. I’ve put them all on 422 for the moment. When 442 doesn’t break, I’m hoping to grab my coins back at least below 450. Anyway, just a few thoughts, sometimes these things change by the hour…

  2. Arthur

    Finally a little attack on the 480-510 range with some body. Still very weak though, extremely low volumes, and 495 is still a tough one to pass. So I think we can soon book it as another failed bounce up to test this resistance zone.

    1. B.Mums

      I’m hoping for the same… Sold 565 on btce yesterday morning and I’m trying to be patient. Becoming tempted to buy back in at a slight loss… I feel the sharp downtrend this morning was what we were waiting for… Seems like relatively strong resistance at 450ish that held it up on btce though.

      1. Peter

        This is exactly why I kept out of this one, I just don’t have the nerve, in this situation I would be shitting myself. Glad I kept out of it. I hope the price lowers for you guys though and you make a nice profit.

      1. On kraken it at 515 when you convert euro’s to dollar’s. We’ll see where this ends… Maybe it will decline again. If not i dont know what i will do. I think i’m gonna wait for the weekend to see if i can buy stuff back with a slight profit. I sold most of my coins at 490-495.

    1. Arthur

      I wouldn’t call it exactly that. Chances are that low volume pumps will be overruled by bigger volume dumps.

      1. Peter

        Ah i see ok, I’ve just started tracking the volume on stamp to get a feel of how it works. I will keep an eye on that. Thanks Arthur!

      2. Peter

        Volume on stamp is about 50% from the highest I have seen. Could be a good time to sell if you haven’t already. I’m tempted too but I’m playing the long term hodler game.

    2. Arthur

      That’s what I mean yes. Last week daily volumes were on 30k – 35k. It’s not the key indicator though, you should also take the RSI oscillator into consideration. When it’s above 70 it’s probably a good moment to sell. Can’t check that now, I’m at work. (typing this on my phone lol)

      1. Peter

        Nice, thankks, Im at work too lol I will look into th RSI oscillator. I have also heard about this but not quite sure what it us.

      2. Arthur

        It’s an indicator that will tell you something about selling and buying pressure (at least that’s how I explain it for myself). It works with a scale from 0 to 100, where 70 is ‘overbought’. Those zones help to determine if it’s a good moment to buy or sell.

        In a previous Update Enky told us it works well with a setting of ‘5 minutes, and on bitcoinwisdom dot com you can try it out for free.

        By the way it’s only recently I’m learning these things also, so please forgive me if I’m not saying it right in every detail… 😉

      3. Arthur

        Yup, and I was wrong about not breaking 510 (which I don’t mind, I rather see bitcoin go up instead of down lol). Also bought 100% back in in the meantime after I noticed it returned from 500 to 510 and broke 511 (while RSI was indeed way beyond 70 most of the time, so I was a little surprised), and I had to swallow a loss on this trade. Ah well, that comes with the game. You win some, you loose some. 🙂

  3. Elie

    wow very angry I should have stayed long on what I had bought at the low 425… could have gained 1.3BTC. I just bought in at 510 after seeing some decent volume. I guess we will go up retest 540-560 at max. I do not think we will pass the 595-600 level which is the descending triangle starting from the 683 ATH.

    1. Astenn

      Y same here. I should have bought some back again this morning. But yeah thats the game. If you know everything in advance life would not be much fun 🙂

      I’m gonna wait until this weekend but somehow i think it wont drop below 500 anytime soon.

      1. Elie

        it will have to since we did not spend so much time down at 400 to pick up steam, I think everyone was surprised that it was just “it”. IMO we will rally 540-560 then get stuck there. meaning the short term is still bearish.

        At 540-560 we will fall back down to retest 495-505 support (if it holds then we will rally past $600) . If it breaks then we will go down to 440 and at worse test 360. from there we will be able to rally past the 595-600 range

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