Short Term Update: Now Bullish

In the previous update I mentioned as a possible resistance area the price zone from 480 to 510 dollars but the price has risen above my short term VWAP, i’ve to conclude that at least in the short term bitcoin has returned to a bullish position.
At this point I think that  XBT/USD could test the $ 540 resistance before some profit taking will take place.

The volume on all the main exchanges is high. Usually, momentum investors prefer to buy stocks that are rising with high volume, i hope they will be back to restore bitcoin price to at least 600 dollars as it was before the recent selloff.

chart

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39 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Now Bullish

  1. Arthur

    Thanks Enky! Had to close a trade with a loss because of this surprising break of 510, but the joy to see bitcoin rise again prevails. I think at least we can say that volatility is growing also. What is your current stance on that, Enky, is volatility on a level that you’re happy with it, or should it still be way higher? (I’m guessing the latter)

  2. Elie

    Agreed Enky! time to short for me at 540 and rebuy a little lower to compensate for my bad trade when I sold too early at 475. Selling at 540 and rebuying at the support of 520+- will be my plan. It is a safe trade.

    Should have listened to myself — remember when you buy at 440-470 or lower that’s when you go long in Bitcoin.

    1. Peter

      I’m thinking on joining you on that, though if it breaks 540 then I take it the sell should be about 570. Will be keeping my eye on this.

  3. Peter

    Hey Arthur, I have a question if you would be so kind to answer for me. I have just been checking out the RSI oscillator indicator on Bitcoincharts.com and noticed it shows different results when looking at different time periods. Is this due to the exponential trend experienced by Bitcoin and also is it better to use this indicator on the historical price chart of Bitcoin or a set period?

    1. Arthur

      Well Peter, I’m not fully introduced to the secrets of RSI yet, but as far as I know, 5 min and 15 min settings work best for daytrading. And the longer timeframe in the setting, it gives an indication for long term trades. Long term we are still oversold (as Enky also indicated before), but on a daily base (working with the 5 min and 15 min setting) we can still see very clear overbought and oversold moments.

      What surprised me with this RSI thingy a few days ago; we were already clearly overbought at a price of 510 (RSI was 80 or 85 if I remember well) which was on the high end of the 480-510 range. Then with a price drop to 500 the RSI dropped to around 60 and then the price suddenly jumped to 527 and 535 later (all Bitstamp figures btw). RSI at that moment went back to 80-90.

      So, selling at 510 looked like a good option, but turned out to be a bad option… Only today the price dropped again to 502.25 to have a proper buy back with a little profit (if you believe that the price will not drop further). For the moment I think it is likely that the price might drop back to the 400’s, but the 480’s or high 470’s is in my opinion the lowest it will go.

  4. B.Mums

    Enky, Elie, you guys think we’re still due to surpass 600+ or think it’s going to take some time to beat down the walls on the way up? Either of you think we could dip south of 480 again?

    I’m a bit paranoid after losing the 0.5 in gains I made Monday during the BTCE flash crash because I kept thinking we were topping out at 480, 490, 500, etc. and I would sell, and have to buy back in $5 higher. This happened to me a few times and now I’m paranoid to sell even at 515. I’d like to regain some confidence and gain some insight into your thoughts at this time…Safe to sell at 525-530 or you guys see su passing 530-540 in the next 24-48 hrs?

    1. Artie

      B.Mums I feel for you. In the recent week first I’ve made 0.3 gain and then I’ve lost 0.5 btc…Feels bad. Now I’m in fiat, hoping for another drop that will allow me to at least regain that loss.

    2. Peter

      What im doing is waiting for 540s, I have a funny feeling that’s all. The recent crash was blatant manipulation and we are in a current short term bull market as Enky says.

    3. B.Mums

      Yeah I’m trying to short one last time at 528 on BTCE unless I see some good volume may will take us beyond 540.

      1. Elie

        guys, were in a period of uncertainty now and I would say still bearish for the short term. Were in a bear market IMO still and that bounce upwards from 443 towards the 500s for me does not “confirm” that we bottomed. A lot of people including myself were caught by the fact that the market will double bottom at 443 to say the least or do a W. But that did not happen. I am myself right now not sure of the market, I have also been thinking of selling at 530 and sit in fiat fully with a nice gain to see where we are going!! I prefer to get a confirmation if were bullish or bearish – right now were a little bullish in a bearmarket. I guess best thing is to stay out and wait for a confirmation if your scared of losing money.

        So far I think it’s 50/50 and as usual two scenarios could come into play and add up the manipulation so I doubt anyone out there will give you a guaranty of what the market will be up to next!!!

        1 – We could fail to break past 535-540 and head downwards to retest 440 – do a nice double bottom at this level and go up (if it fails and then we end up at 360, Go up from there consolidate like normal people for a long period maybe around 440 again)

        2. The market moves up from 520s in the next 24 hours and retests 560-570 (good shorting place to rebuy lower). Then from there or we break past that resistance and stop at 600 and fail down to the 400s again or we break 600 and become bullish. (confusing isn’t it?)

      2. Enky

        I’m starting to believe that 440 could be the bottom, after all it has been a technical drop without bearish news at all and the volume on the rebounce has been strong.I think also that bitcoin can’t be in a long term bearmarket as long as it stays above 266$ (april 2013 top) and with rising network difficulty.

      3. Peter

        Good points there Enky. No strain on your conscious but I nearly put a sell order for 530 until I read that lol

      4. Elie

        Enky do u also think we will double bottom at 440? or u still have a hinch that were will be retesting previous highs at 560-570 and more? just curious

      5. Elie

        Btw folks I sold out at 520 and put my buy at $468. Will see how this plays out, no hard feelings 🙂 I think we will need to revisit the 400s a last time to satisfy the bears. Only then we can break 600s.
        In case it goes up I have my alarms on (bitcoinwisdom) and will buy in if we have good volume etc.

      6. B. Mums

        There is of course, a 3rd possibility I think…a few more days (the weekend) of consolidating down to ~480 before another bull run…IMO.

      7. Elie

        B. Mums, wherever it lands below 500 like 487 and under just BUY and go long. Lets not do the same mistake as before. I hope I can go long at 468. I think this will generate enough panic sell to bring down again a last time to 440-470 area. Will see tonight i guess. If it goes lower I will consider adding more to my stash, got few $$ on the side.

      8. Andre

        Elie, looking at bitcoinwisdom I seems that the RSI is nowhere near the over-sold line (705) which I would take as a sales sign. How do you determine it is/was time to sell ?

      9. Elie

        Seems the lowest we were going to go was 505. I bought back in at 512-514. Looks like were going to skyrocket upwards.

      10. B.Mums

        Elie that squeeze indicator is interesting. Is one simply able to take that code and plug it into something like MQ4L and use as indicator? I’m understanding MQ4L enough to use it soon but I have no idea how custom indicators and such works, or if they’re programmable/importable.

    1. Peter

      This is significant but its by a precious metal dealer. Gold bugs would use gold as a currency if they could but its not as transportable as Bitcoin so no surprise they are the first to do this. Saying that though, its not an unreasonable extrapolation for what general companies will be doing in the year 2020.

    1. B.Mums

      Hey Enky… Any way to get a small chat widget on your blog here? It’d be amazing if we could all collaborate and discuss our thoughts in real-time…but only if we can keep out the trolls and spammers. All of us who have been with ya for a while could help moderate maybe? Just a thought! 🙂

      1. George

        I am a regular reader of this blog recently. Very happy to have the opportunity to learn from all of you guys, especialy Enky of course and Elie is getting better and better 😉
        What I believe it would help is another theme (also responsive for mobile devices) with better comment threads in WP. I also don’t know for instant chat plugin @WP btw.
        The thoughts we share here are too long for instant chat. And for instant chat I believe there are to much redundant words and thoughts possible. It would enable all of us to be too excited at not so important moves and/or events…
        This is just MHO.
        However, keep on good work Enky and the “team”, you are fun to read!

    2. Arthur

      Let’s meet @ Enky’s Troll Box, 7pm EST sharp. Yeah, sounds coolio. 🙂

      Not sure if WordPress provides such thingy though.

      1. Elie

        I will join in this weekend on IRC, this is ridiculous this is too much manipulation: we have spent 8-12 hours trying to break the support at 500?? Problem is the minute we go below 500 and spend another 12 hours trying to get to 490 we will oversell and run out of sellers.Just too much support under 500 specially on Bitfinex and Bitstamp. So far I have not sold yet, I dont have the patience for this

      2. Anathema

        You guys probably remember this article on coindesk: http://www.coindesk.com/margin-trading-crash-price-bitcoin/. One of the things that was interesting was this quote:

        “Levin has performed a preliminary analysis that shows plenty of profit was realised during the flash crash, and that there were clear warning signs that a big price dip was imminent. Levin pointed out that the volume of bitcoin swaps on Bitfinex grew sharply two days before the crash. ”

        I decided then to check for sudden high btc swaps every day. And just now i noticed there are several spikes today, higher than the ones just before the flash crash. What are your thoughts, do you think another flash crash is imminent? The live chart is here: http://www.bfxdata.com/swapstats/btc.php and set the zoom so that 13 August and 23 August are both included.

      3. Anathema

        I may have misinterpreted the chart. There’s no sudden increase in volume today, as there was on 13 August. There is a sudden spike in interest rate however. It doesn’t really make sense to me since there are over 2000 bitcoins offered at 0.0065% and yet the volume was not that high today, how did it get to 0.1%?

      4. Elie

        Not sure Anathema, but thank god there was this Kiss of Death just few minutes ago on Bitfinex, the final retracement to 510 before the big plunge towards the 400s!. I was able to sell with minimal loss 🙂 now I can buy safely lower. Outlook of this sheep market is nonsensically bearish although i am very bullish like Enky. oh well. If we hit 450 I can grow my BTCs by 1.6BTC!!

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