Short Term Update: Sideways

Trading sideways is when a security doesn’t make higher highs or lower lows. It just stays within the same trading range over any period of time, it’s a lull in between a bull market, when a security trade higher, or a bear market, when they are on a downward trend. Again XBT/USD is entering a congestion because it’s not too far from a period of ten days inside a specific range, the price zone from 480 to 540 dollars. 
The short term VWAP is now perfectly in the middle of the trading range, at 510 dollars. The volatility of the last seven days dropped further more and so the range defined by the deviation lines, as i indicated in the chart the last tops has been made on the first and second deviation lines with the last $522 top done on a RSI divergence.
Now the rsi is forming a new divergence with an higher bottom and bitcoin price doing a lower low, it could be a buying opportunity if today or tomorrow XBT/USD drops down to $490-$495. If someone want to try to go long there because this is short term operativity the stop loss must be very tight 5 or 10 dollars at max with a target around $515-$520.

chart

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20 thoughts on “Short Term Update: Sideways

  1. Arthur

    Thanks Enky. Probably a rather boring (no-)trading period ahead.

    In the previous update the mining subject appeared, and I wanted to say, miners are not selling (all) their coins I’m sure. This recent CoinDesk article also mentions that. Out of 8,000+ coins mined they only sold 4,000 and still they made a good profit after taking away a one time investment.

    http://www.coindesk.com/digitalbtc-reports-4-million-revenue-preliminary-annual-results/

    On forum comments I also see that, some are not selling any coin mined, they state. To me that means something.

    1. Elie

      Arthur have u went long when u bought in at 495 or so since last time? I am thinking of going long too now at 505. Dont think it worths to stay in 100% fiat for now. I think 500 is a very cheap price for Bitcoin and in few weeks from now or even days anyone still waiting at 400-470 might get burned when a sudden rally occurs and the train leaves them behind!

      From the other end, from September to Oct-Nov I am going to have another batch totally in fiat waiting from the market to make a move. If downwards to 400s I will buy there, if were rallying with a clear breach of 525 then from there!

    2. Arthur

      Yeah, as a matter of fact I did. Thanks for asking. So far I did that at 449, later at 595 and now again at 499. I’m roughly following Enky’s strategy as you might notice. He also went long twice recently and thought about going long with a third batch.

      1. Elie

        great. gonna get some fiat ready within the next few weeks from my end for my next batch.
        so are you using any cold storage service? Like Coinbase? Does Bitfinex have that too? I see Finex has a deposit account but not sure what that qualifies for. thx!!!

      2. Peter

        All due respect but its probably not wise to state where you keep your coin. Though, I have a piper paper wallet producer with of of he most robust forms of entropy for random private key generation which is the best form of cold storage as you and you alone have access to the private key (p.s don’t laminate piper wallet print outs they turn black). Coinbase is offering a vault with 2 factor verification and an approval from 2 different email addresses then 2 days for the transfer to complete, giving you 2 days to cancel the transfer into another wallet if it wasn’t you that approved it. Pros advantages of using coinbase is 1) that they are insured 2) no risk from disaster at your home, your private keys can’t get destroyed like flooding, fire or theft 3) although the coins will most likely reside in cold storage at oinbase they are accessible online so no need to sweep any private keys yourself from cold storage. Cons 1) centralized control meaning not staying inline with the law can mean confiscation of your coins, though I imagine this won’t be a problem to many of us 2) Centralized control means central point of failure what happens if Coinbase goes bust? or an employee steals the coins? though this might be irrelevant if they are insured see Pros 1.

      3. Anathema

        @Elie
        “I see Finex has a deposit account but not sure what that qualifies for”

        A Bitfinex account has three ‘wallets’. One for exchange (simple buy/sell), one for margin trading and one for swaps (you can lend out dollars or crypto to traders here and get interest in return). In the manage walets screen these three are labelled ‘exchange’, ‘trading’ and ‘deposit’ respectively. Those funds are separated but can be transferred between wallets.

      4. Elie

        Hello Anathema, yeh their are 3 wallets from which one is deposit. Was not sure if deposits qualified for a cold storage. Probably not. But i could still leave some Bitcoins there.

    3. Arthur

      I have no issues telling where I keep my coins. I’m having active accounts on Coinbase, Blockchain and Netagio. And Bitstamp of course. I’m using Netagio for cold storage, no issues so far. I noticed Coinbase now also provides insured cold storage, but I was on Netagio already.

      For who’s interested, I went long with 30 coins on 449, 10 on 595 and 10 on 499. Trading with 30 something coins. Trying to bring them to 40+ for a next donation, however I lost a few coins with recent trades so there’s still several trades to go lol.

      I’m also planning to add this information to my will at the notary otherwise my wife and child (second coming in February 2015) wouldn’t know where to look when I’m gone. 🙂

      1. Peter

        haha I have already informed family members where to look and how to obtain my coins incase of heaven forbid anything happens.

      2. Peter

        Alarm bells should have rang when 70% of people surveyed by coindesk.com in wall street are worried about a bitcoin bubble. When Circle.com goes Alpha that is when the bull trend will mature. I think we’re in some kind of tradition between last down trend and the up and coming bull trend.

      3. Elie

        Congrats Arthur for the child! Thanks for the info. I think I will consider Coinbase, and QT Bitcoin (on my PC and backup to 5 USB keys or so). Until Circles comes along then I will put some there etc.

        If u guys dont want to talk here private stuff u can always join IRC:

        http://webchat.freenode.net/
        nickname: ur nick of course
        Channels: #bit4x

        I am there now mostly hanging out

    4. Arthur

      “I think we’re in some kind of tradition between last down trend and the up and coming bull trend.”

      Transition? Yeah, I agree. Not sure if that Wall Street survey has so much to do with it, because they earn their money with trading on bubbles. What they say and what they do, are two worlds apart, if you ask me.

      Anyhow, we have to wait some more for the next sprint, that’s becoming a fact. We had high hopes for Wall Street jumping in around now; obviously it didn’t happen.

      1. Peter

        Might I also add my congrats! Yep, transition sorry my auto correct kicked in and it doesn’t help that I’am dyslexic too. Thing about Wall street is they have a biased view of Bitcoin. If I was in investment banking with a shit load of money I too would hesitate to call Bitcoin a superior form of money, though it clearly isn’t.

  2. Artie

    So you guys think we won’t visit 450 area anymore? I’ve set my buy in that area but I don’t really enjoy staying in fiat, it’s too much of strain on my nerves.

    1. Arthur

      Hard to say, bitcoin is a volatile bastard. But I’m not expecting it anytime soon, no. After 2 flash crashes I think the market is calming down again, and preparing for a mildly bullish autumn. That’s my guess anyway.

      1. Elie

        I actually did not take into consideration the extra low volume of this weekend, so I think it is possible that we see 481 max this weekend so maybe be patient and buy there and or wherever it bottoms. I went long term at 505, and not anticipating to day trade anymore, it has been taking too much of my time and I am not patient enough to wait for Bitcoin going down 5$ a day. also as you other than few day traders out there, the sellers have not showed up much which indicates more HOLDERS at this point.

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